Rankings & Form
Ekaterina Alexandrova enters this second-round US Open clash as the clear favorite, ranked 18th in the WTA with 2,506 points, significantly ahead of M. Kessler, who sits at 58th with 1,040 points. Despite both players showing patchy recent runs, Alexandrova’s form stands at LLWLW, slightly edging Kessler’s LLWLL. The consistency in Alexandrova's recent matches, including a competitive win and close three-set battles, suggests she has the resilience to handle the pressure in New York.
Head-to-Head Record
This matchup has a single prior meeting: at Ningbo, where Alexandrova won in straight sets 2-0. While that result leans in Alexandrova's favor, it was on a different surface and earlier in their careers. Kessler will look to overturn that result, but the head-to-head data does reinforce Alexandrova’s psychological edge going into this encounter.
Playing Styles & Momentum
Alexandrova’s game, built on powerful groundstrokes and solid baseline control, contrasts with Kessler’s more varied approach, which relies on tactical shot selection but has been less consistent lately. Both players have struggled to close out matches recently, with Kessler losing two matches 2-1 and Alexandrova showing a similar pattern. However, Alexandrova’s ability to win tight sets and maintain intensity in three-setters gives her an advantage on the hard courts of Flushing Meadows.
Match Prediction
Given the ranking disparity, head-to-head history, and recent form, Ekaterina Alexandrova is the strong pick to take the match, with odds around 1.50 reflecting that confidence. The AI model also favors Alexandrova winning the first set, priced near 1.65, which aligns with her tendency to start matches strongly. Expect Kessler to challenge but ultimately fall short against the higher-ranked Alexandrova.
