Celta VS Alavés Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Oct 18, 2026)

RC Celta de VigoCelta

15:00

Sun, Oct 18 2026

Deportivo AlavésAlavés

LaLiga

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Draw

View Reasoning

The match is expected to be closely contested, as both teams have comparable records, with 6 wins for Celta and 8 for Alavés in their respective campaigns. The H2H statistics show a pattern of competitive matches, suggesting that a draw is plausible given their similar scoring and defensive records. With both teams averaging around 1.5 goals per match and their recent performances, a draw seems like a reasonable outcome.

Human Analyst

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both teams have shown a strong tendency to score, with RC Celta de Vigo having a BTTS rate of 55% and Deportivo Alavés at 60%. Given their H2H record where Celta has scored 31 goals against Alavés in their last 10 meetings, it’s likely that both teams will find the net. The attacking capabilities of both sides, combined with their current form, make this a solid bet.

Split call — see both takes above

Place bet

Key Stats

Celta Vigoper gameAlaves

0.5

xG for

1.6

xG against

0.7

52.6

Possession %

42.3

10.3

Shots

12.4

Celta Vigo — last 5

WLDDD

Alaves — last 5

DLLWW

Team Stats

Celta Vigoper gameAlaves

0.5

xG for

1.6

xG against

0.7

52.6

Possession %

42.3

10.3

Shots

12.4

3.7

Shots on tgt

4.4

3.3

Corners

4.3

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Celta Vigo — last 5

WLDDD

Alaves — last 5

DLLWW

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Celta Vigo	14-12-12	1.4	1.3	10
Alaves	11-10-17	1.2	1.5	5

Celta performance

Total Matches

Form

6W8D6L

Avg Scored

1.35

per match

Avg Conceded

1.05

per match

Goals Scored27

Goals Conceded21

Clean Sheets6 (30%)

BTTS55%

Over 2.540%

Over 3.530%

Alavés performance

Total Matches

Form

8W7D5L

Avg Scored

1.55

per match

Avg Conceded

1.15

per match

Goals Scored31

Goals Conceded23

Clean Sheets7 (35%)

BTTS60%

Over 2.550%

Over 3.520%

Expected Match Outcome

Celta

1-1

(1.3 - 1.3 xG)

Alavés

Celta

Scores1.35/g

Concedes1.05/g

Alavés

Scores1.55/g

Concedes1.15/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

58%

Over 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 2.5

55%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Celta Vigo wins

Draws

Alaves wins

Recent meetings

22 Mar 2026Celta Vigo

3–4

Alaves

22 Nov 2025Alaves

0–1

Celta Vigo

27 Jan 2025Alaves

1–1

Celta Vigo

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	-9	3

Overview

Celta Vigo (14th, 7 pts) host Alaves (6th, 11 pts) in a La Liga clash. Despite Celta's mid-lower table position, Alaves sit comfortably in the top six early on. Last season, Celta had a stronger defensive record (1.3 conceded pg vs. Alaves' 1.5) but Alaves managed 11 wins to Celta's 14. This season's small samples show Celta struggling defensively (xGA 1.99 vs. 0.69 for Alaves), with Alaves boasting better offensive efficiency (xG 1.58 vs. 0.52).

Form & xG

Celta's recent form is WLDDD, scoring 1.14 goals per game but conceding 0.86, with an alarming xGA of 1.99 indicating defensive issues. Alaves have improved, with DLLWW, scoring 1.57 and conceding 0.86, backed by a strong xG of 1.58 and solid defense (xGA 0.69). Celta’s possession edge (52.6%) contrasts with Alaves’ efficient counter-attacking style reflected in 12.4 shots per game vs. 10.3 for Celta.

Team News & Key Players

Celta rely on Ferrán Jutglà (1.42 shots/90, 0.71 on target) and Miguel Román (0.74 shots/90, 1.1 key passes/90) for creativity and goals. Alaves' key contributors include Pablo Ibáñez (1.1 shots/90) and A. Rebbach (3.05 tackles/90), showing defensive grit. Alaves’ goalkeeper Sivera maintains a 6.94 rating with 1 assist. Both teams have players suspended or at risk, with Yoel Lago accumulating 3 yellow cards for Celta and Rebbach 3 yellows for Alaves.

Stats & Betting Angles

BTTS stands at 43% for both; however, Alaves' better xG for (1.58) and lower xGA (0.69) suggest higher scoring potential. Under 2.5 goals occurred in 71% of Celta’s matches vs. 57% for Alaves. Corners favor Alaves (4.3 vs. 3.3), implying more attacking opportunities. The last head-to-head was a 4-3 thriller to Alaves, indicating potential for goals, but overall defensive frailty may limit clean sheets, with each team only keeping 43% clean sheets this season.

Verdict

Given Alaves' superior xG profile, efficiency, and higher league position, they appear slightly stronger. Yet Celta’s home advantage and past encounters suggest a close contest. Expect a competitive game with goals from both sides (BTTS Yes) and a final scoreline reflecting moderate scoring — a 2-1 victory for Alaves fits the data, balancing the defensive weaknesses and offensive potential.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Read Full Match Preview

Frequently Asked Questions

How has recent form influenced both teams' performances?

Celta's recent form is WLDDD, with only 7 points from 7 games, indicating struggles especially defensively (xGA 1.99). Alaves improved with DLLWW, earning 11 points, showing better defense (xGA 0.69) and more goals (1.57 scored pg). The difference in form underlines Alaves' momentum and defensive solidity compared to Celta’s ongoing challenges.

What do xG stats reveal about the attacking and defensive strengths?

Celta’s xG for is low at 0.52 per game, while conceding a high xGA of 1.99, indicating defensive vulnerabilities. Alaves’ xG for is 1.58, nearly triple Celta’s, with a robust xGA of 0.69. This suggests Alaves are more efficient offensively and structurally sound defensively, making them a threat in attack and hard to break down.

Which key attackers have the biggest impact per-90 minutes?

For Celta, Ferrán Jutglà leads with 1.42 shots/90 and 0.71 on target, plus 0.71 key passes/90, making him their main offensive threat. Miguel Román adds creativity (1.1 KP/90). Alaves’ Pablo Ibáñez registers 1.1 shots/90 and A. Rebbach 0.76 shots/90, showing balanced attacking contributions despite defensive roles.

How do defensive frailties shape the expected match outcome?

Celta concede 0.86 goals per game but have a high xGA of 1.99, reflecting defensive lapses. Alaves concede similarly (0.86 goals pg) but with a much lower xGA (0.69), indicating more consistent defense. This suggests Celta’s defense is leakier and could allow Alaves multiple chances, impacting the final scoreline.

Why is BTTS a strong possibility in this fixture?

Both teams have a BTTS rate of 43% this season, but the last head-to-head ended 4-3 to Alaves, and overall defensive frailty (Celta xGA 1.99, Alaves xGA 0.69) suggests chances for both sides. Alaves’ efficient attack (1.58 xG) and Celta’s home motivation support goals at both ends.

What justifies the over/under 2.5 goals prediction here?

Celta have only 29% of matches over 2.5 goals, Alaves 43%. The last high scoring 4-3 match hints at attacking potential, but Celta’s low xG and Alaves’ better defense suggest a moderate total. The prediction leans to Over 2.5 due to Alaves’ attacking efficiency and the likelihood both score, as supported by the 2-1 scoreline.

What does the recent head-to-head trend suggest about this match?

Recent H2H are tight and high scoring: 2026-03-22 ended 4-3 to Alaves, 2025-11-22 was 1-0 Celta, 2025-01-27 a 1-1 draw. The trend shows competitive encounters with goals, supporting a close match with multiple goals, consistent with the 2-1 predicted scoreline.

Is there any betting value in this match according to the stats?

Given Alaves’ superior xG (1.58 vs. 0.52) and defensive solidity (xGA 0.69 vs. 1.99), backing Alaves to win 2-1 with BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 goals offers value. Celta’s home advantage and historical competitiveness suggest the match won’t be a blowout, adding confidence to a close, goal-rich outcome.