Fenerbahçe VS Roma Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 10, 2026)

Fenerbahçe SKFenerbahçe

1 - 1

HT: 0-1

AS RomaRoma

UEFA Champions League·Şükrü Saracoğlu

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both teams have shown the ability to score, with Fenerbahçe having a BTTS percentage of 46% and AS Roma at 50%. Given the attacking strength of Roma and the overall goal trends, it is likely that both teams will find the back of the net in this match. The combination of Fenerbahçe's home advantage and Roma's scoring ability further supports this prediction.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

AS Roma Handicap -1.5

View Reasoning

AS Roma has a strong overall performance with a win rate of 67% and an impressive goal-scoring record of 46 goals in 20 matches. Their defensive capabilities are also notable, conceding only 23 goals, which gives them a 50% clean sheet rate. Given Fenerbahçe's struggles against top-tier teams, betting on AS Roma to win by at least two goals seems reasonable.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Fenerbahçeper gameAS Roma

xG for

3.2

xG against

0.6

57.7

Possession %

62.5

14.2

Shots

Fenerbahçe — last 5

WDWWD

AS Roma — last 5

Team Stats

Fenerbahçeper gameAS Roma

xG for

3.2

xG against

0.6

57.7

Possession %

62.5

14.2

Shots

Shots on tgt

Corners

1.5

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

100

Clean sheet %

100

Fenerbahçe — last 5

WDWWD

AS Roma — last 5

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Fenerbahçe	1-1-2	1.5	1.3	1
AS Roma	0-0-0	0	0	0

Fenerbahçe performance

Total Matches

Form

6W4D3L

Avg Scored

1.15

per match

Avg Conceded

0.92

per match

Goals Scored15

Goals Conceded12

Clean Sheets5 (38%)

BTTS46%

Over 2.538%

Over 3.515%

Roma performance

Total Matches

Form

12W4D4L

Avg Scored

2.30

per match

Avg Conceded

1.15

per match

Goals Scored46

Goals Conceded23

Clean Sheets10 (50%)

BTTS50%

Over 2.565%

Over 3.540%

Expected Match Outcome

Fenerbahçe

1-2

(1.2 - 1.6 xG)

Roma

Fenerbahçe

Scores1.15/g

Concedes0.92/g

Roma

Scores2.30/g

Concedes1.15/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

48%

Over 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 2.5

48%

Head-to-Head & Form

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	1	1	0	0	+5	3
2	Bayern München	1	1	0	0	+5	3
3	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+4	3
4	Manchester United	1	1	0	0	+4	3
5	Como	1	1	0	0	+3	3
6	VfB Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	+2	3
7	Sporting CP	1	1	0	0	+2	3
8	Manchester City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
9	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Real Betis	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	0	+1	3
13	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
14	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	+1	3
15	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
16	AEK Athens FC	1	1	0	0	+1	3
17	AS Roma	1	0	1	0	0	1
18	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1	0	0	1
19	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1	0	0	1
20	Fenerbahçe	1	0	1	0	0	1
21	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Lille	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Slavia Praha	1	0	0	1	-1	0
24	Club Brugge KV	1	0	0	1	-1	0
25	Inter	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Atletico Madrid	1	0	0	1	-1	0
27	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-1	0
28	Lask Linz	1	0	0	1	-1	0
29	Viking	1	0	0	1	-2	0
30	Galatasaray	1	0	0	1	-2	0
31	FC Porto	1	0	0	1	-2	0
32	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-3	0
33	Feyenoord	1	0	0	1	-4	0
34	Sabah FA	1	0	0	1	-4	0
35	Slovan Bratislava	1	0	0	1	-5	0
36	Bodo/Glimt	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Overview

Fenerbahçe hosts AS Roma in a cup tie with no direct head-to-head history. Fenerbahçe sits 11th in the competition with 0 points, while Roma is 28th, also pointless. Roma’s recent form is impressive with 2 wins and 4 goals scored per game this season, albeit from only 2 matches. Fenerbahçe’s 6-game sample shows decent defensive solidity with 0.5 goals conceded per game but a lower scoring rate of 1.33 goals per game.

Form & xG

Roma’s xG is 3.21 per game with 0.55 conceded, indicating strong attacking and defensive quality in their 2 games. Fenerbahçe’s xG data is not available this season, but last season they averaged 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded per game in 4 matches. Roma’s 100% clean sheet rate contrasts with Fenerbahçe’s 50% clean sheets and 50% BTTS rate this season, suggesting Roma’s defense is in better shape early on.

Team news & key players

Fenerbahçe’s top form players include Talisca (4 goals, 4.37 shots/90) and Greenwood (2 goals, 2.2 shots/90). Defensively, Škriniar leads with 3.55 tackles/90 and 7.4 rating. Roma’s Paulo Dybala stands out with 3 assists, 3.31 shots/90 and 3.87 key passes/90, while defenders Mancini and Hermoso maintain high tackling rates (1.94 and 4.39 tackles/90 respectively). Roma’s strong defensive and creative stats are key.

Stats & betting angles

Roma’s 100% clean sheets and 100% Over 2.5 goals contrast with Fenerbahçe’s 50% clean sheets and only 17% Over 2.5. Roma’s possession at 62.5% and 16 shots per game versus Fenerbahçe’s 57.7% and 14.2 shots suggest control. Fenerbahçe’s corner average is 6 per game, more than Roma’s 1.5, potentially aiding set-piece threat. BTTS probability leans toward Yes given Fenerbahçe’s 50% rate and Roma’s attacking output.

Verdict

Roma’s early season dominance in xG (3.21 vs 0.55 conceded) and clean sheets, combined with Dybala’s creative influence, gives them an edge. Fenerbahçe’s strong home form and set-piece threat could yield a goal, but Roma’s defensive solidity and attacking prowess make them favorites. Expect a competitive match with goals at both ends, likely ending 2-1 to Roma.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does recent form influence the expected outcome?

Roma’s perfect start with 2 wins and 4 goals per game indicates strong momentum, while Fenerbahçe’s mixed form (WDWWD) shows inconsistency. Roma’s 100% clean sheets contrast with Fenerbahçe’s 50%, suggesting Roma’s defense is more reliable early season. This form gap supports Roma as favorites despite the small sample size.

What does the xG profile suggest about attacking potential?

Roma’s xG of 3.21 per game in 2 matches is very high, indicating strong chance creation and finishing. Fenerbahçe lacks current season xG data, but last season’s baseline of 1.5 goals per game suggests moderate attack. Roma’s 0.55 xG conceded per game shows defensive strength, making them more likely to control scoring.

Which key attacker is most likely to influence the game?

Paulo Dybala is Roma’s standout with 3 assists, 3.31 shots/90, and 3.87 key passes/90, indicating high creative and scoring threat. For Fenerbahçe, Talisca leads with 4 goals and 4.37 shots/90, but Roma’s defense has limited opponents to 0.55 xG, suggesting Dybala’s influence may be decisive.

How vulnerable is each team defensively?

Fenerbahçe concedes only 0.5 goals per game this season but had 1.3 per game last season, indicating some improvement. Roma concedes 0.55 xG per game and has kept 2 clean sheets in 2 matches, showing strong defensive form. Roma’s defenders Hermoso and Mancini have tackling rates over 1.9/90, reinforcing solidity.

Why is BTTS (both teams to score) likely in this match?

Fenerbahçe has a 50% BTTS rate this season, indicating they often concede or score. Roma’s 0% BTTS reflects their clean sheets so far, but their high attacking xG (3.21) suggests they will break down Fenerbahçe’s defense. Fenerbahçe’s home advantage and set-piece threat (6 corners per game) also support them scoring.

What supports the over 2.5 goals prediction?

Roma’s 100% Over 2.5 goals rate in 2 games with 4 goals per game contrasts with Fenerbahçe’s low 17%. However, the combined average goals per game (Roma 4 + Fenerbahçe 1.33) and BTTS likelihood suggest multiple goals. Roma’s high shot volume (16) and possession (62.5%) also increase scoring chances.

How do head-to-head stats affect the prediction?

There are no recent head-to-head encounters between Fenerbahçe and Roma, so predictions rely on current season form and last season’s baseline. This lack of direct history increases uncertainty but highlights the importance of Roma’s strong early-season stats and Fenerbahçe’s home advantage.

Is there a betting value angle in this match?

Roma’s early season xG and clean sheets suggest strong form, but Fenerbahçe’s home set-piece threat and 50% BTTS rate offer value in BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 goals markets. Betting on a 2-1 Roma win aligns with stats and offers a balanced risk given Roma’s attacking firepower and Fenerbahçe’s ability to score at home.