Venezia FC VS Fiorentina Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 11, 2026)

Venezia FCVenezia FC

2 - 4

HT: 1-2

ACF FiorentinaFiorentina

Serie A·Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both Teams to Score is a viable option as both teams have shown a tendency to find the net, with Venezia FC having a BTTS rate of 50% and ACF Fiorentina at 45%. The historical matchups have also produced a total of 47 goals in 15 encounters, indicating a likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering these factors, estimated odds for this market could be around 1.80.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Venezia FC to win

View Reasoning

Venezia FC has shown strong form with an impressive W11 D5 L4 record, scoring 37 goals while conceding only 20, resulting in a solid goal difference. Their head-to-head record against ACF Fiorentina is favorable with 6 wins out of 15 encounters, and their current home advantage increases their chances. Given these stats and the odds of 2.69, backing Venezia FC to win appears to be a sound choice.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Veneziaper gameFiorentina

1.4

xG for

1.2

2.5

xG against

2.1

56.5

Possession %

49.5

Shots

Venezia — last 5

Fiorentina — last 5

Team Stats

Veneziaper gameFiorentina

1.4

xG for

1.2

2.5

xG against

2.1

56.5

Possession %

49.5

Shots

4.5

Shots on tgt

Corners

5.5

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

100

Clean sheet %

Venezia — last 5

Fiorentina — last 5

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Venezia	0-0-0	0	0	0
Fiorentina	9-15-14	1.1	1.3	10

Venezia FC performance

Total Matches

Form

11W5D4L

Avg Scored

1.85

per match

Avg Conceded

1.00

per match

Goals Scored37

Goals Conceded20

Clean Sheets7 (35%)

BTTS50%

Over 2.550%

Over 3.535%

Fiorentina performance

Total Matches

Form

6W7D7L

Avg Scored

0.95

per match

Avg Conceded

1.35

per match

Goals Scored19

Goals Conceded27

Clean Sheets7 (35%)

BTTS45%

Over 2.550%

Over 3.520%

Expected Match Outcome

Venezia FC

2-1

(1.6 - 1.0 xG)

Fiorentina

Venezia FC

Scores1.85/g

Concedes1.00/g

Fiorentina

Scores0.95/g

Concedes1.35/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

48%

Over 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 2.5

50%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Venezia wins

Draws

Fiorentina wins

Recent meetings

12 May 2025Venezia

2–1

Fiorentina

25 Aug 2024Fiorentina

0–0

Venezia

16 Apr 2022Fiorentina

1–0

Venezia

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Lazio	7	6	1	0	+10	19
3	AS Roma	7	5	2	0	+13	17
4	AC Milan	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Como	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	Frosinone	7	4	1	2	+4	13
7	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	-1	13
8	Juventus	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Napoli	7	3	1	3	+3	10
10	Torino	7	3	1	3	+1	10
11	Atalanta	7	3	0	4	-1	9
12	Lecce	7	3	0	4	-3	9
13	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Monza	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Udinese	7	1	1	5	-7	4
17	Genoa	7	1	1	5	-8	4
18	Fiorentina	7	1	1	5	-9	4
19	Parma	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Venezia	7	1	0	6	-10	3

Overview

Venezia and Fiorentina meet early in the Serie A season, both sitting at the bottom of the table with zero points after two matches. Venezia has struggled offensively, scoring 0 goals and conceding 2 per game, while Fiorentina has been slightly worse defensively, conceding 3.5 goals per game but also failing to score. Last season, Fiorentina had a baseline of 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, compared to Venezia’s lack of Serie A experience this season.

Form & xG

Both teams started 2026/27 poorly with Venezia's 1.43 xG for and 2.46 against per game, while Fiorentina’s 1.24 xG for and 2.09 against indicate defensive vulnerabilities. Venezia averages 56.5% possession versus Fiorentina’s 49.5%. Despite Venezia’s higher possession, Fiorentina generates more shots (17 vs 14) and corners (5.5 vs 4). Neither team has scored or kept a clean sheet, indicating defensive frailty and attacking inefficiency early on.

Team News & Key Players

Venezia’s standout is Gianluca Busio (rating 7.65), who averages 1 key pass and 2.5 tackles per 90, but no goals or assists yet. Akor Adams shows promise with 2 shots and 1 OT per 90. Fiorentina’s Franco Mastantuono leads with 4.12 shots and 0.59 OT per 90, supported by Cher Ndour with 1.78 shots and key passes each per 90. Defensive contributions from Armel Bella-Kotchap (Venezia) and Mateo Pellegrino (Fiorentina) will be crucial.

Stats & Betting Angles

Both teams have zero BTTS in two games, but Fiorentina’s last season baseline included 1.1 goals per game and 10 clean sheets, suggesting a better defensive record that has yet to materialize. The 2025 H2H shows a 2-1 Venezia win and a 0-0 draw, indicating competitive matches. Venezia’s 56.5% possession contrasts with Fiorentina’s higher shot volume and corners, pointing to open play and chances at both ends, favoring BTTS and Over 2.5 goals.

Verdict

Expect a tight but open match with both teams eager to claim first points. Fiorentina’s higher shots and corners hint at more scoring opportunities, but Venezia’s possession dominance and recent 2-1 H2H win suggest they can find the net. The small sample size this season urges reliance on last season’s baseline for Fiorentina’s scoring and defensive stats. Prediction: a 2-1 win for Venezia with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do recent form and xG data influence the expected outcome?

Both Venezia and Fiorentina have lost their first two games with low scoring outputs: Venezia 0 goals and 2 conceded per game with 1.43 xG for and 2.46 against; Fiorentina 0 goals and 3.5 conceded with 1.24 xG for and 2.09 against. These numbers indicate defensive weaknesses and attacking struggles on both sides, suggesting a tight but open game with goals likely from both teams.

Which key players could impact the match outcome and how?

For Venezia, Gianluca Busio stands out with 1 key pass and 2.5 tackles per 90 minutes, potentially influencing midfield control. Akor Adams offers attacking threat with 2 shots and 1 OT per 90. Fiorentina’s Franco Mastantuono leads with 4.12 shots and 0.59 OT per 90, supported by Cher Ndour’s 1.78 shots and key passes. Defensive performances from Armel Bella-Kotchap and Mateo Pellegrino will be crucial.

How does the defensive frailty of both teams affect the expected goals and result?

Venezia concedes 2.46 xG against per game while Fiorentina concedes 2.09. Neither team has kept a clean sheet this season or last (Fiorentina had 10 last season). This defensive fragility suggests both sides will have chances, increasing the likelihood of goals and BTTS, with a predicted 3 total goals consistent with their defensive records.

Why is BTTS (both teams to score) a plausible bet despite current season stats?

Though both teams have 0% BTTS in their two games this season, last season Fiorentina scored 1.1 goals per game and had 10 clean sheets, indicating they can both score and concede. Venezia’s recent 2-1 H2H win over Fiorentina supports the likelihood of goals at both ends. The defensive frailty and attacking potential of key players make BTTS a credible bet.

What justifies the over 2.5 goals prediction given the low scoring so far?

Despite no goals scored by either team in two games, Venezia’s 1.43 xG and Fiorentina’s 1.24 xG suggest opportunities created. Defensive xG against values above 2 for both teams imply many chances conceded. The 2025 H2H 2-1 Venezia win and open playing styles forecast a match with at least 3 goals, supporting over 2.5 goals.

How do head-to-head results inform this match prediction?

Recent H2H matches show a 2-1 Venezia win in May 2025 and a 0-0 draw in August 2024, reflecting close contests. Previous results include Fiorentina 1-0 Venezia and Venezia 1-0 Fiorentina, indicating balanced encounters. The 2-1 Venezia win suggests both teams can score and implies a competitive fixture with multiple goals, supporting a 2-1 scoreline prediction.

Is there a betting value angle in this match prediction?

Given Venezia’s higher possession (56.5%) and Fiorentina’s more shots (17) and corners (5.5), the game should be open with chances for both. Fiorentina’s last season baseline of 1.1 goals per game and 10 clean sheets contrasts with current defensive struggles, indicating potential for improvement. Betting on Venezia to win 2-1 with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals offers value given the small current sample but strong baselines.