Lecce VS Monza Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 13, 2026)

US LecceLecce

3 - 2

HT: 3-1

AC MonzaMonza

Serie A·Stadio Via del Mare

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both Teams to Score is a strong bet given that AC Monza has a BTTS percentage of 60%, indicating they frequently concede goals, while US Lecce has a BTTS percentage of 35%. The H2H record of 15 total goals in 10 matches suggests that both teams can find the net against each other. Considering these factors, the likelihood of both teams scoring is high.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

AC Monza to win

View Reasoning

AC Monza has a stronger overall record with 10 wins compared to US Lecce's 7, along with a higher goal-scoring average (33GF vs 17GF) and a better goal difference (-23 vs -9). Furthermore, Monza's H2H advantage (1 win out of 10 matches) and their 40% clean sheet rate indicate a solid defensive performance. Given these stats, AC Monza winning seems a likely outcome, estim.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Lecceper gameMonza

1.7

xG for

1.5

2.7

xG against

32.5

Possession %

40.5

9.5

Shots

Lecce — last 5

Monza — last 5

Team Stats

Lecceper gameMonza

1.7

xG for

1.5

2.7

xG against

32.5

Possession %

40.5

9.5

Shots

Shots on tgt

2.5

Corners

BTTS %

100

Over 2.5 %

100

Clean sheet %

Lecce — last 5

Monza — last 5

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Lecce	10-8-20	0.7	1.3	10
Monza	0-0-0	0	0	0

Lecce performance

Total Matches

Form

8W3D9L

Avg Scored

1.05

per match

Avg Conceded

1.30

per match

Goals Scored21

Goals Conceded26

Clean Sheets5 (25%)

BTTS35%

Over 2.540%

Over 3.520%

Monza performance

Total Matches

Form

9W6D5L

Avg Scored

1.80

per match

Avg Conceded

1.45

per match

Goals Scored36

Goals Conceded29

Clean Sheets7 (35%)

BTTS60%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.540%

Expected Match Outcome

Lecce

1-2

(1.3 - 1.6 xG)

Monza

Lecce

Scores1.05/g

Concedes1.30/g

Monza

Scores1.80/g

Concedes1.45/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

48%

Over 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 2.5

53%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Lecce wins

Draws

Monza wins

Recent meetings

16 Feb 2025Monza

0–0

Lecce

15 Dec 2024Lecce

2–1

Monza

27 Apr 2024Lecce

1–1

Monza

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Lazio	7	6	1	0	+10	19
3	AS Roma	7	5	2	0	+13	17
4	AC Milan	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Como	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	Frosinone	7	4	1	2	+4	13
7	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	-1	13
8	Juventus	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Napoli	7	3	1	3	+3	10
10	Torino	7	3	1	3	+1	10
11	Atalanta	7	3	0	4	-1	9
12	Lecce	7	3	0	4	-3	9
13	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Monza	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Udinese	7	1	1	5	-7	4
17	Genoa	7	1	1	5	-8	4
18	Fiorentina	7	1	1	5	-9	4
19	Parma	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Venezia	7	1	0	6	-10	3

Overview

Lecce and Monza meet with Lecce sitting 12th with 3 points and Monza 17th with 1 point early in the season. Lecce's last season baseline shows 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game over 38 matches, while Monza has no top-flight data from last season as they were newly promoted. Their recent head-to-head favors Lecce, who have won 4 of the last 10 meetings including a 2-1 home win in December 2024.

Form & xG

This season's small sample shows Lecce scoring 1 goal per game with an xG of 1.72 but conceding 2.7 on average, indicating defensive issues. Monza averages 1.5 goals scored but concedes 3.5 per game, with an xG of 1.47 for and 1.02 against, suggesting defensive frailty but relatively balanced chance creation. Lecce's possession is low at 32.5%, Monza slightly better at 40.5%. Monza's BTTS rate is 100% this season, Lecce 0%, but sample sizes are tiny.

Team news & key players

Lecce's key player Lassana Coulibaly offers 0.48 shots and 1.45 key passes per 90, rating 7.15, while goalkeeper Wladimiro Falcone has an impressive 8.3 rating. Monza's Gustavo Varela is the top attacker with 2 goals and 2.6 shots per 90, rating 7.1, supported by Andrea Colpani's 1.17 shots and 1.17 key passes per 90. Defensive ratings are lower for Monza, with Andrea Carboni at 5.9 and Eddy Kouadio at 6.1.

Stats & betting angles

Lecce's last season clean sheet rate was 26%, with 19 games failing to score, indicating offensive inconsistency. Monza's 100% BTTS and Over 2.5 this season align with their defensive struggles (3.5 conceded per game). Lecce's corners average 2.5 per game versus Monza's 3.0, suggesting moderate set-piece opportunities. Cards are similar, with Lecce at 2 yellow cards per game and Monza at 1.5, indicating moderately physical contests.

Verdict

Given Lecce's stronger historical baseline and home advantage, they are favored to edge Monza in a match likely featuring goals at both ends. Monza's defensive struggles and Monza's attacking form suggest BTTS and Over 2.5 goals. The match should be competitive, but Lecce's ability to score and keep clean sheets last season gives them a slight edge for a narrow win.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does recent form affect expectations for this match?

Lecce's recent form shows a win and a draw (LW) with 1 goal scored and 2 conceded per game, while Monza has lost both games (LL), scoring 1.5 and conceding 3.5 per game. Lecce's better start (3 points vs. 1) and defensive issues for Monza suggest Lecce may have a slight edge despite conceding more than last season.

What does the xG profile suggest about each team's attacking and defensive performance?

Lecce's xG this season is 1.72 for and 2.7 against per game, indicating defensive vulnerability despite decent chance creation. Monza has 1.47 xG for and 1.02 against, showing less conceded chances but higher goals allowed, suggesting poor finishing or defensive errors. The disparity between xG and goals conceded highlights Monza's defensive frailty.

Who are the key attackers and what are their per-90 contributions?

For Lecce, Lassana Coulibaly contributes 0.48 shots and 1.45 key passes per 90 minutes with a 7.15 rating, while Monza's Gustavo Varela leads with 2.6 shots, 1.04 on target, and 2 goals so far, rating 7.1. Andrea Colpani also offers 1.17 shots and key passes per 90. Varela's high shot volume and goals make him Monza's main threat.

How vulnerable are each team's defenses?

Lecce concedes 2.7 goals per game this season with an xG against of 2.7, showing defensive weakness compared to last season's 1.3 goals conceded per game. Monza concedes 3.5 goals per game but has an xG against of 1.02, indicating poor defensive execution or errors. Monza's defensive frailty is more pronounced despite better xG numbers.

What justifies a BTTS (both teams to score) prediction?

Monza has a 100% BTTS rate this season, conceding 3.5 goals per game, while Lecce concedes 2.7 per game but has yet to concede in BTTS terms. Historical H2H shows multiple draws with goals (1-1 twice, 2-1 once). Monza's attacking output (1.5 goals) and Lecce's defensive struggles support BTTS.

Why is an Over 2.5 goals bet reasonable?

Monza has conceded 3.5 goals per game and scored 1.5, with 100% Over 2.5 this season. Lecce concedes 2.7 goals per game and scores 1, with 50% Over 2.5. The combined average goals per game is 4.5, well above 2.5, reinforced by recent H2H results like 2-1 and 1-1.

What do the recent head-to-head results indicate?

The last five meetings include a 2-1 Lecce win, two 1-1 draws, and a 0-0 draw, indicating competitive tight games with goals. Lecce has won 4 of last 10, Monza 1, and 5 draws. The diversity of results suggests a close match, but Lecce has a historical edge especially at home.

Is there betting value in favoring Lecce?

Lecce's stronger last-season baseline (0.7 goals scored, 1.3 conceded) and home advantage contrast with Monza's lack of top-flight data last season. Despite early defensive woes, Lecce's better form (3 points vs. 1) and historical H2H edge provide value. Monza’s high BTTS and Over 2.5 may inflate odds, making a narrow Lecce win a value pick.