Swansea VS Burnley Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 12, 2026)

Swansea City AFCSwansea

3 - 1

HT: 2-0

Burnley FCBurnley

Championship·Swansea.com Stadium

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Over 2.5 goals

View Reasoning

With both teams averaging over 2.5 goals in their matches (55% for both), and Burnley FC's defense allowing 41 goals while scoring only 21, the likelihood of a high-scoring match increases significantly. Historical data also suggests that their head-to-head matches have been prolific, with an average of over 2.4 goals per game. Therefore, betting on over 2.5 goals is a sensible choice.

Human Analyst

Correct

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both Swansea City AFC and Burnley FC have shown a propensity to score in their matches, with Burnley's BTTS percentage at 75%. Swansea has also maintained a solid scoring record, netting 27 goals in 20 matches. Given that their head-to-head encounters have yielded 34 total goals over 14 matches, it's reasonable to predict that both teams will find the net in this match.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Swanseaper gameBurnley

1.7

xG for

1.4

0.9

xG against

1.6

58.4

Possession %

50.3

13.4

Shots

13.8

Swansea — last 5

LWWDW

Burnley — last 5

DLDLL

Team Stats

Swanseaper gameBurnley

1.7

xG for

1.4

0.9

xG against

1.6

58.4

Possession %

50.3

13.4

Shots

13.8

5.2

Shots on tgt

3.7

Corners

4.8

BTTS %

100

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Swansea — last 5

LWWDW

Burnley — last 5

DLDLL

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Swansea	18-10-18	1.2	1.3	12
Burnley	0-0-0	0	0	0

Swansea performance

Total Matches

Form

9W6D5L

Avg Scored

1.35

per match

Avg Conceded

1.20

per match

Goals Scored27

Goals Conceded24

Clean Sheets7 (35%)

BTTS50%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.520%

Burnley performance

Total Matches

Form

1W7D12L

Avg Scored

1.05

per match

Avg Conceded

2.05

per match

Goals Scored21

Goals Conceded41

Clean Sheets1 (5%)

BTTS75%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.545%

Expected Match Outcome

Swansea

2-1

(1.7 - 1.1 xG)

Burnley

Swansea

Scores1.35/g

Concedes1.20/g

Burnley

Scores1.05/g

Concedes2.05/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

63%

Over 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 2.5

45%

Head-to-Head & Form

Swansea wins

Draws

Burnley wins

Recent meetings

15 Mar 2025Swansea

0–2

Burnley

10 Nov 2024Burnley

1–0

Swansea

02 Jan 2023Swansea

1–2

Burnley

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	11	7	2	2	+8	23
2	West Ham	11	6	4	1	+18	22
3	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	+6	22
4	Birmingham	11	5	5	1	+9	20
5	West Brom	11	6	2	3	+3	20
6	Stoke City	11	6	1	4	+2	19
7	Wolves	11	5	3	3	+3	18
8	Southampton	11	6	3	2	+11	17
9	QPR	11	4	5	2	+3	17
10	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	+1	15
11	Sheffield Utd	11	4	3	4	+1	15
12	Millwall	11	4	3	4	0	15
13	Portsmouth	11	4	3	4	0	15
14	Wrexham	11	3	5	3	-1	14
15	Bolton	11	4	2	5	-3	14
16	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	-3	14
17	Charlton	11	3	5	3	-5	14
18	Lincoln	11	3	3	5	-10	12
19	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	+1	11
20	Watford	11	3	2	6	-9	11
21	Norwich	11	3	0	8	-4	9
22	Burnley	11	1	5	5	-5	8
23	Derby	11	1	3	7	-11	6
24	Preston	11	1	1	9	-15	4

Overview

Swansea currently sit 2nd in the standings with 11 points from 5 games, showing strong form and defensive solidity, conceding only 0.8 goals per game. Burnley, struggling at 23rd with 3 points from 6 games, have a porous defense, conceding 2.17 goals per game. Last season, Swansea averaged 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded per match over 46 games, establishing a solid baseline, while Burnley has no last season data, limiting trend extrapolation.

Form & xG

Swansea's recent form is LWWDW, with an xG of 1.73 and xGA 0.92 this season, outperforming their last season scoring rate (1.2). They maintain 58.4% possession and average 13.4 shots per game with 5 corners. Burnley’s form is DLDLL with an xG of 1.38 and xGA 1.62, conceding more than scoring. Burnley’s 100% BTTS rate contrasts with Swansea’s 40%, indicating Burnley’s games are more open defensively.

Team news & key players

Swansea's key contributors include J. Tymon (7.01 rating, 1.6 key passes/90) and S. Welsh (7.23 rating). Offensively, M. Stamenić attempts 1.26 shots/90. Burnley's top attacker A. Ramsey (6.7 rating) has 2.68 shots/90 and 0.45 on target, while U. Raghouber (6.9 rating) also poses a threat with 0.98 shots/90. Burnley’s defensive frailty is exacerbated by high fouls and cards (2.33 yellows per game).

Stats & betting angles

Swansea’s defensive solidity is reflected in 60% clean sheets and 60% under 2.5 goals this season; Burnley has 0 clean sheets and 67% over 2.5 goals matches. The 100% BTTS for Burnley suggests both teams score frequently in their games. H2H heavily favors Burnley with 4 wins in last 5 matches, including recent 2-0 and 4-0 victories. However, Swansea’s current form and home advantage could shift dynamics.

Verdict

Despite Burnley’s strong H2H, Swansea’s superior current form, possession dominance (58.4% vs 50.3%), and defensive records suggest a narrow Swansea win. The high BTTS and over 2.5 frequency for Burnley matches hint at goals at both ends. A 2-1 scoreline aligns with Swansea’s 1.6 goals per game and Burnley’s attacking threat, balancing Swansea’s defensive resilience and Burnley’s offensive pressure.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has Swansea's recent form impacted their scoring and defensive stats this season?

Swansea's recent form of LWWDW correlates with an improved scoring rate of 1.6 goals per game, above last season's 1.2, and a solid defensive record conceding only 0.8 goals per game this season. Their xG of 1.73 for and 0.92 against confirms this positive trend, showing both effective attack and defense in five matches.

What does the xG profile suggest about Burnley's attacking and defensive performance?

Burnley's xG of 1.38 for versus 1.62 against this season suggests a defensive weakness, conceding more quality chances than they create. Their 2.17 goals conceded per game align with this, while their 1.17 goals scored per game fall short of their xG, indicating underperformance in attack.

Which key attackers are most likely to influence the match based on per-90 stats?

Burnley's A. Ramsey leads with 2.68 shots/90 and 0.45 on target, posing the biggest threat. Swansea’s M. Stamenić, with 1.26 shots/90, is their main offensive outlet. U. Raghouber (0.98 shots/90) also contributes for Burnley. These attackers’ shot volumes suggest they will be crucial in goal-scoring opportunities.

How do defensive vulnerabilities manifest in the stats for both teams?

Burnley concedes 2.17 goals per game and has no clean sheets so far, with a high 2.33 yellow cards per game, indicating defensive struggles and discipline issues. Swansea concede only 0.8 goals per game with a 60% clean sheet rate, showing stronger defensive organization and fewer disciplinary problems (1.6 yellows per game).

Why is BTTS likely in this match based on current stats?

Burnley’s 100% BTTS rate this season combined with Swansea’s 40% suggests a strong likelihood both teams will score. Burnley concedes 2.17 goals per game, while Swansea still concedes 0.8. Historical BTTS trends for Burnley and Swansea’s recent matches also support both sides finding the net.

What factors support the match going over 2.5 goals?

Burnley’s matches have a 67% over 2.5 goals rate, and Swansea 60%. Burnley concedes over 2 goals per game and Swansea’s attack averages 1.6 goals. Combined with Burnley’s offensive attempts (13.8 shots with 3.7 on target), the stats suggest a lively, goal-filled game likely exceeding 2.5 goals.

How does the head-to-head history influence betting considerations?

Burnley leads recent head-to-heads with 4 wins in last 5 meetings, including 2-0 and 4-0 wins, indicating historical dominance. However, Swansea’s current form and home advantage suggest a shift. Bettors should weigh Burnley’s past H2H strength against Swansea’s improved defense and form this season for value.

Where lies the betting value in this fixture?

Betting value lies in Swansea’s current form and defensive metrics contrasting with Burnley’s poor form and discipline issues. Despite Burnley’s H2H advantage, Swansea’s 58.4% possession and 60% clean sheets suggest a tight home win. BTTS and over 2.5 goals also offer value given Burnley’s attacking intent and defensive frailty.