Napoli VS Bologna Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 13, 2026)

SSC NapoliNapoli

1 - 0

HT: 0-0

Bologna FC 1909Bologna

Serie A·Diego Armando Maradona

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both Teams to Score is a viable bet given Napoli's BTTS percentage of 55%, indicating they frequently score while also conceding chances. Bologna, despite their defensive struggles, has managed to score in most matches, evidenced by their lower BTTS rate of 40%. With a high-scoring H2H history of 43 goals in 15 matches, this matchup is likely to see both teams finding the net.

Human Analyst

Correct

SSC Napoli to win

View Reasoning

SSC Napoli has a solid home record with 11 wins and only 6 losses, while Bologna FC has struggled defensively, conceding 29 goals. Napoli's strong goal-scoring ability, averaging over 2 goals per game, suggests they can outscore Bologna, whose BTTS percentage is only 40%. Given Napoli's favorable H2H record with 6 wins in the last 15 matches, I expect them to secure a victory.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Napoliper gameBologna

1.1

xG for

1.4

0.9

xG against

0.4

Possession %

58.5

Shots

Napoli — last 5

Bologna — last 5

Team Stats

Napoliper gameBologna

1.1

xG for

1.4

0.9

xG against

0.4

Possession %

58.5

Shots

Shots on tgt

3.5

Corners

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Napoli — last 5

Bologna — last 5

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Napoli	23-7-8	1.5	0.9	15
Bologna	16-8-14	1.3	1.2	12

Napoli performance

Total Matches

Form

11W3D6L

Avg Scored

1.70

per match

Avg Conceded

1.05

per match

Goals Scored34

Goals Conceded21

Clean Sheets8 (40%)

BTTS50%

Over 2.550%

Over 3.525%

Bologna performance

Total Matches

Form

6W4D10L

Avg Scored

1.05

per match

Avg Conceded

1.70

per match

Goals Scored21

Goals Conceded34

Clean Sheets4 (20%)

BTTS40%

Over 2.545%

Over 3.540%

Expected Match Outcome

Napoli

2-1

(1.7 - 1.1 xG)

Bologna

Napoli

Scores1.70/g

Concedes1.05/g

Bologna

Scores1.05/g

Concedes1.70/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

45%

Over 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 2.5

53%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Napoli wins

Draws

Bologna wins

Recent meetings

11 May 2026Napoli

2–3

Bologna

22 Dec 2025Napoli

2–0

Bologna

09 Nov 2025Bologna

2–0

Napoli

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Lazio	7	6	1	0	+10	19
3	AS Roma	7	5	2	0	+13	17
4	AC Milan	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Como	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	Frosinone	7	4	1	2	+4	13
7	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	-1	13
8	Juventus	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Napoli	7	3	1	3	+3	10
10	Torino	7	3	1	3	+1	10
11	Atalanta	7	3	0	4	-1	9
12	Lecce	7	3	0	4	-3	9
13	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Monza	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Udinese	7	1	1	5	-7	4
17	Genoa	7	1	1	5	-8	4
18	Fiorentina	7	1	1	5	-9	4
19	Parma	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Venezia	7	1	0	6	-10	3

Overview

Napoli currently sit 13th with 3 points from 2 games, showing a slight underperformance compared to their usual top-tier standing. Bologna are 15th with just 1 point, struggling offensively this season. Historically, Napoli have been stronger, finishing last season with 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game, compared to Bologna's 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. The fixture promises a competitive battle, especially considering recent head-to-head results where both sides have won and lost narrowly.

Form & xG

This season’s small sample shows Napoli averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1 conceded per game with an xG of 1.08 for and 0.86 against, indicating a slight overperformance in goals. Bologna have scored none so far despite an xG of 1.42, suggesting finishing issues. Bologna dominate possession (58.5% vs Napoli’s 48%) and shots (15 vs 13), but their xG against (0.39) suggests a solid defensive start. Last season, Napoli’s 15 clean sheets contrast with Bologna’s 12, hinting Napoli’s defensive resilience could be tested.

Team News & Key Players

Napoli’s Rasmus Højlund stands out with 1 goal from 1.14 shots/90 and 0.57 key passes per 90, showing attacking promise. Defensively, Amir Rrahmani’s 3.5 tackles/90 and rating of 7.45 indicate reliability. Bologna’s top attackers Jens Odgaard (3 shots/90, 1.2 key passes) and Nicolò Cambiaghi (1.8 shots/90) have yet to score, highlighting their conversion problems. Goalkeeper Łukasz Skorupski’s rating of 6.3 contrasts with Napoli’s Alex Meret’s 7.1, suggesting Napoli may have a goalkeeping edge.

Stats & Betting Angles

Napoli have a 50% BTTS rate this season and last season kept 15 clean sheets, while Bologna’s BTTS is 0% this season but 11 times failed to score last year. Bologna’s higher fouls (15.5 per game) and yellow cards (2 per game) suggest a physical approach, possibly leading to set-piece opportunities for Napoli, who average 3.5 corners per game. Recent H2H shows mixed results, including a 2-3 away loss for Napoli, implying both can score but Napoli may edge it.

Verdict

Given Napoli’s historical defensive solidity and home advantage, combined with Bologna’s finishing struggles despite decent xG, Napoli are favorites. Expect a tight but open game with goals at both ends, as Napoli’s slight edge in defense and key player form should help them secure a narrow win. The prediction leans towards a 2-1 scoreline, aligning with over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has Napoli's recent form and scoring compared to Bologna's?

Napoli have 3 points from 2 games, scoring 1.5 goals per game with a 1.08 xG, conceding 1 per game with 0.86 xG against. Bologna have 1 point, scoring 0 goals despite a higher 1.42 xG, conceding 1 goal per game with 0.39 xG against. Napoli's form is slightly better, but Bologna's higher xG suggests they create chances but lack finishing.

What does the xG data suggest about each team's attacking and defensive qualities?

Napoli's xG for is 1.08, slightly below their 1.5 goals scored, indicating efficient finishing. Their xG against is 0.86 but concede 1 goal, showing some defensive lapses. Bologna's xG for at 1.42 exceeds their 0 goals scored, highlighting poor finishing. Defensively, Bologna's xG against is only 0.39, suggesting solid defensive positioning so far.

Which key players are likely to influence the match and how?

Napoli’s Rasmus Højlund leads with 1 goal, 1.14 shots/90, and 0.57 key passes/90, making him a key offensive threat. Amir Rrahmani’s 3.5 tackles/90 and 7.45 rating highlight defensive strength. Bologna’s Jens Odgaard (3 shots/90, 1.2 key passes) and Nicolò Cambiaghi (1.8 shots/90) create chances but lack goals, which could limit Bologna’s attack.

How vulnerable are the defenses based on last season and current stats?

Last season Napoli conceded 0.9 goals per game with 15 clean sheets, showing strong defense. Bologna conceded 1.2 goals per game with 12 clean sheets, slightly less solid. This season Napoli concede 1 goal per game with 0.86 xG against; Bologna concede 1 goal with just 0.39 xG against, suggesting Bologna’s defense may be more efficient early on despite last season’s record.

Why is BTTS (both teams to score) a plausible outcome here?

Napoli have a 50% BTTS rate this season and conceded 1 goal per game, while Bologna failed to score so far but have scored in recent H2H matches including a 2-3 win. Napoli's defensive solidity contrasts with Bologna's offensive struggles, but recent H2H and Bologna’s decent xG suggest both sides can find the net.

What supports the over/under 2.5 goals market prediction?

Napoli average 1.5 goals scored and 1 conceded per game; Bologna have 0 goals scored but a high xG of 1.42. Recent H2H include high-scoring matches like 2-3 and 3-2. Napoli’s corners and fouls suggest set-piece chances. All indicate a probable over 2.5 goals match.

How do recent head-to-head results inform the expected match outcome?

Recent H2H show mixed tight results: Napoli won 2-0 and 3-2; Bologna won 2-0 and 3-2; draws like 1-1 and 0-0. The 2-3 and 3-2 games indicate both teams can score, but Napoli’s home wins suggest a slight advantage. This supports a close high-scoring game, likely 2-1.

Is there value in betting on Napoli to win given the stats and form?

Despite Napoli's lower possession (48%) and fewer shots (13 vs 15), their historical defensive solidity (15 clean sheets last season) and better finishing (1.5 goals scored vs Bologna's 0 this season) make them favorites. Bologna’s poor conversion despite 1.42 xG and disciplinary issues (15.5 fouls, 2 yellows per game) suggest Napoli’s edge is a betting value.