Cambuur VS NEC Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 12, 2026)

SC Cambuur-LeeuwardenCambuur

3 - 0

HT: 1-0

NECNEC

Eredivisie·Kooi Stadion

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both Teams to Score (BTTS) is highly likely given SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden's 80% BTTS rate and NEC's 85%. With Cambuur conceding an average of 3.6 goals per match and NEC scoring consistently, the chances of both teams finding the net are significant. Additionally, the head-to-head record shows that previous matches between these teams have often resulted in goals from both sides.

Human Analyst

Correct

Over 2.5 goals

View Reasoning

SC Cambuur-Leeuwarden has struggled defensively this season, conceding 18 goals while scoring only 6, resulting in a 100% Over 2.5 goals rate in their matches. NEC, with 34 goals scored and a BTTS rate of 85%, also contributes to high-scoring games. Given the historical context of their head-to-head matches, where 34 goals were scored over 15 encounters, betting on Over 2.5 goals is a strong recommendation.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Cambuurper gameNEC Nijmegen

1.2

xG for

2.4

xG against

1.7

Possession %

12.5

Shots

16.8

Cambuur — last 5

LLLL

NEC Nijmegen — last 5

DWLLW

Team Stats

Cambuurper gameNEC Nijmegen

1.2

xG for

2.4

xG against

1.7

Possession %

12.5

Shots

16.8

Shots on tgt

5.3

4.3

Corners

BTTS %

100

Over 2.5 %

100

Clean sheet %

Cambuur — last 5

LLLL

NEC Nijmegen — last 5

DWLLW

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Cambuur	0-0-0	0	0	0
NEC Nijmegen	--	–	–

Cambuur performance

Total Matches

Form

0W1D4L

Avg Scored

1.20

per match

Avg Conceded

3.60

per match

Goals Scored6

Goals Conceded18

Clean Sheets0 (0%)

BTTS80%

Over 2.5100%

Over 3.5100%

NEC performance

Total Matches

Form

7W8D5L

Avg Scored

1.70

per match

Avg Conceded

1.40

per match

Goals Scored34

Goals Conceded28

Clean Sheets3 (15%)

BTTS85%

Over 2.565%

Over 3.540%

Expected Match Outcome

Cambuur

1-3

(1.3 - 2.6 xG)

NEC

Cambuur

Scores1.20/g

Concedes3.60/g

NEC

Scores1.70/g

Concedes1.40/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

83%

Over 2.5

83%

Over 3.5

70%

Under 2.5

18%

Head-to-Head & Form

Cambuur wins

Draws

NEC Nijmegen wins

Recent meetings

27 Feb 2024Cambuur

1–2

NEC Nijmegen

11 Feb 2023NEC Nijmegen

0–0

Cambuur

04 Nov 2022Cambuur

0–1

NEC Nijmegen

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	2	1	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	+15	18
5	Twente	9	5	2	2	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	4	3	2	-1	15
7	Groningen	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Heerenveen	9	3	3	3	+4	12
9	GO Ahead Eagles	9	2	5	2	-1	11
10	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	-2	11
11	Utrecht	9	3	2	4	-10	11
12	NEC Nijmegen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-6	9
14	Cambuur	9	2	3	4	-8	9
15	PEC Zwolle	9	2	1	6	-12	7
16	Telstar	9	1	3	5	-8	6
17	ADO Den Haag	9	1	3	5	-9	6
18	Willem II	9	0	2	7	-17	2

Overview

Cambuur currently sit bottom of the league in 18th place with just 1 point from 4 games, while NEC Nijmegen are 9th with 7 points. Cambuur's defense has conceded 2.41 xG per match this season, reflecting their struggles at the back, compared to NEC's more solid 1.71 xG conceded. NEC's possession dominance at 64% versus Cambuur's 48% also underlines the visitors' control in matches so far.

Form & xG Analysis

Cambuur have lost all four games this season, scoring just 1 goal per game but conceding over 2.4 xG on average, indicating defensive frailty. NEC have a more balanced form with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 2.5 goals per game and conceding 1.5. NEC's higher xG for (2.36) and lower xG against (1.71) suggest their underlying numbers are stronger, supporting their mid-table position.

Team News & Key Players

Cambuur's main attacking threat is Rafik El Arguioui with 3 goals in 4 games and 2.5 shots per 90, but the rest of the squad offers limited firepower. NEC rely on Tjaronn Chery (3G, 1A, 2.95 shots/90) and Adam Tahaui (2G, 1.83 shots/90) for goals. Dušan Tadić provides creativity with 2.25 key passes per 90. Defensive discipline is a concern for Cambuur, who have 2 yellows in key player Souren.

Stats & Betting Angles

Both teams have 0 clean sheets so far, with BTTS at 75% for Cambuur and 100% for NEC, indicating goals at both ends. Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 100% of matches involving both teams this season, supporting an attacking game. NEC's superior shots (16.8 vs 12.5) and corners (6 vs 4.3) per game also favor an open contest. Head-to-head last 7 matches show NEC winning 5 times, mostly by 2-1 or 1-2 scorelines.

Verdict

NEC Nijmegen's stronger xG profile, better form, and possession dominance make them favorites. Cambuur's defensive weakness and lack of scoring depth suggest they will concede again. Expect goals from both sides with a likely close scoreline reflecting the recent 2-1 margins in H2H. Over 2.5 goals and BTTS are strong predictions, with NEC edging out a 2-1 victory.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has Cambuur's recent form impacted their defensive performance?

Cambuur have lost all 4 matches this season, conceding an average of 2.41 xG per game, indicating defensive struggles. Their possession is low at 48%, and they average only 4.3 corners per match, limiting attacking opportunities. This poor form and high xG against highlight defensive frailty, which has translated into conceding 4 goals in 4 games, with 0 clean sheets.

What does the xG profile reveal about NEC Nijmegen's attacking and defensive balance?

NEC Nijmegen's xG for is 2.36 per game, significantly higher than Cambuur's 1.16, indicating a stronger attack. Defensively, NEC concedes 1.71 xG per match, better than Cambuur's 2.41, suggesting a more solid backline. This balance is reflected in their 2.5 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game, supporting their 9th place standing.

Who are the key attackers for both teams and their per-90 contributions?

For Cambuur, Rafik El Arguioui leads with 3 goals and 2.5 shots per 90, making him the main scoring threat. NEC's attack is spearheaded by Tjaronn Chery (3G, 1A, 2.95 shots/90) and Adam Tahaui (2G, 1.83 shots/90). Dušan Tadić contributes creativity with 2.25 key passes per 90, supporting NEC's higher xG.

What defensive weaknesses are evident for Cambuur this season?

Cambuur concedes an average of 2.41 xG per game and has 0 clean sheets in 4 matches, showing defensive frailty. Their key midfielder Nicky Souren has 2 yellow cards, which may affect defensive stability. Low possession (48%) means they face more pressure, and their tackles per 90 are modest, indicating they struggle to disrupt opponents effectively.

Why is BTTS a strong probability in this fixture?

Both teams have 0 clean sheets so far, with Cambuur's BTTS at 75% and NEC's at 100%. Cambuur concedes 2.41 xG and NEC scores an average of 2.5 goals per game, while Cambuur scores 1 and NEC concedes 1.5. The last 7 head-to-head matches mostly ended with both teams scoring, including multiple 2-1 and 1-2 results.

What supports the over 2.5 goals prediction?

Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 100% of matches for both teams this season. Cambuur concedes 2.41 xG per game, while NEC averages 2.5 goals scored, highlighting attacking tendencies. NEC's higher shots per game (16.8 vs 12.5) and corners (6 vs 4.3) also imply offensive pressure. The last 7 H2H fixtures often ended 2-1 or 1-2, consistent with over 2.5 goals.

What do recent head-to-head results indicate about this match?

In the last 7 matches, NEC won 5 times, mostly with 2-1 or 1-2 scorelines, showing close contests. Cambuur won twice, including a 3-2 win in 2021. Draws were 0-0 in two matches. The recurring 2-1 margins suggest a competitive game with both teams scoring, favoring NEC slightly due to recent dominance.

Is there any betting value in this fixture?

Given NEC's better xG (2.36 vs 1.16), possession (64% vs 48%), and form (7 points vs 1), backing NEC to win 2-1 offers value. Both teams have 0 clean sheets, and over 2.5 goals with BTTS is a strong bet due to attacking stats and recent H2H results. The narrow margin predicted reflects competitive balance but favors NEC's slight edge.