Excelsior VS Groningen Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Oct 11, 2026)

SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior

1 - 5

HT: 1-2

FC GroningenGroningen

Eredivisie·Stadion Woudestein

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Both Teams to Score

@1.47

View Reasoning

Both teams have shown a strong tendency to score, with SBV Excelsior recording a 75% BTTS rate and FC Groningen at 65%. Their recent H2H history also supports this, as 7 out of their last 10 encounters have featured goals from both sides. Thus, betting on both teams to score is a promising option.

Human Analyst

Correct

Over 2.5 goals

@1.57

View Reasoning

With SBV Excelsior averaging 2.04 goals per match and boasting an impressive 80% rate for over 2.5 goals in their games, this prediction seems solid. FC Groningen, while less prolific, has still been involved in matches that see an overall average of 3.75 goals in their last 10 H2H encounters. Given the attacking capabilities of both teams, betting on over 2.5 goals is a compelling choice.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Excelsiorper gameGroningen

1.7

xG for

1.9

1.2

xG against

2.1

40.9

Possession %

50.2

11.3

Shots

13.8

Excelsior — last 5

DLDWW

Groningen — last 5

WDLLW

Team Stats

Excelsiorper gameGroningen

1.7

xG for

1.9

1.2

xG against

2.1

40.9

Possession %

50.2

11.3

Shots

13.8

4.7

Shots on tgt

5.7

4.3

Corners

3.8

BTTS %

100

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Excelsior — last 5

DLDWW

Groningen — last 5

WDLLW

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Excelsior	10-8-16	1.3	1.6	6
Groningen	14-6-15	1.4	1.3	10

Excelsior performance

Total Matches

Form

11W5D4L

Avg Scored

2.45

per match

Avg Conceded

1.40

per match

Goals Scored49

Goals Conceded28

Clean Sheets4 (20%)

BTTS75%

Over 2.580%

Over 3.555%

Groningen performance

Total Matches

Form

8W4D8L

Avg Scored

1.50

per match

Avg Conceded

1.65

per match

Goals Scored30

Goals Conceded33

Clean Sheets5 (25%)

BTTS65%

Over 2.570%

Over 3.540%

Expected Match Outcome

Excelsior

2-1

(2.0 - 1.4 xG)

Groningen

Excelsior

Scores2.45/g

Concedes1.40/g

Groningen

Scores1.50/g

Concedes1.65/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

70%

Over 2.5

75%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 2.5

25%

Head-to-Head & Form

Excelsior wins

Draws

Groningen wins

Recent meetings

02 May 2026Groningen

2–3

Excelsior

05 Dec 2025Excelsior

0–2

Groningen

16 Jan 2024Excelsior

0–2

Groningen

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	11	7	4	0	+21	25
2	Ajax	11	7	3	1	+17	24
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	2	2	+22	23
4	Twente	10	6	2	2	+9	20
5	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	2	3	+7	20
6	Fortuna Sittard	11	5	4	2	0	19
7	Heerenveen	11	5	3	3	+6	18
8	Groningen	10	4	3	3	+3	15
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	3	5	2	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	3	3	4	-3	12
11	Utrecht	10	3	3	4	-10	12
12	Excelsior	10	3	2	5	-3	11
13	NEC Nijmegen	11	2	5	4	-2	11
14	Sparta Rotterdam	10	2	3	5	-7	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	2	2	6	-12	8
16	Telstar	10	1	3	6	-9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	1	3	6	-10	6
18	Willem II	11	0	2	9	-29	2

Overview

Excelsior and Groningen meet with identical 11 points, 7 and 8 in standings respectively. Both teams have shown attacking intent early in the season with Excelsior scoring 2.14 goals per game and Groningen 2.17, though Groningen concedes more at 1.83 per game compared to Excelsior's 1.29. Last season baseline indicates Groningen slightly better defensively (1.3 conceded vs 1.6). This fixture promises a close battle between mid-table teams with similar points and attacking stats.

Form & xG

Excelsior's recent form is DLDWW with a 1.7 xG for and 1.21 xG against per game, while Groningen's form is WDLLW with xG for 1.86 and against 2.14. Excelsior's defensive solidity is better this season with 1.29 goals conceded vs Groningen's 1.83. Excelsior also has lower possession (40.9%) but higher shot volume efficiency (11.3 shots, 4.7 on target) compared to Groningen's 13.8 shots and 5.7 on target. Both teams have high BTTS rates (71% and 83%) and over 2.5 goals matches (100% and 83%) so far.

Team news & key players

Excelsior rely on I. Yegoian (1G, 4A, 1.54 shots/90, 2.57 key passes/90) and L. Hartjes (1G) for creativity and chances. Groningen's main threat is T. van Bergen with 3G, 2A, 3.33 shots/90 and 1.83 key passes/90, supported by Tika de Jonge (1.35 shots/90, 1.52 KP/90). Defensively, Excelsior's R. Meissen and Groningen's J. Schreuders provide tackles and discipline, though Groningen have fewer yellows (0.83 vs 1.83). Both teams have several players with at least one yellow card, indicating physical contests.

Stats & betting angles

Last season Groningen had 10 clean sheets vs Excelsior's 6, but this season Excelsior concede less and have a higher clean sheet rate (29% vs 17%). Both teams have high BTTS (71% and 83%) and over 2.5 goals rates (100% and 83%) this season, suggesting multiple goals likely. Head-to-head recent results are mixed with Excelsior winning 3-2 in May 2026 but generally Groningen have more 2-0 and 4-0 results. Excelsior's lower possession (40.9%) vs Groningen's 50.2% suggests counterattacking chances.

Verdict

Expect a close, attacking game with goals at both ends. Excelsior's better defensive form this season contrasts with Groningen's superior possession and shot volume. Given both teams' high BTTS and over 2.5 rates, a 2-1 win for Excelsior aligns with trends and last-season defensive baselines. Expect Groningen to press and create chances, but Excelsior's counterattack led by Yegoian should make the difference.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has recent form influenced the expected outcome?

Excelsior's recent form is DLDWW (2 wins in last 3), while Groningen is WDLLW (2 wins in last 5). Excelsior has conceded fewer goals recently (1.29 pg) vs Groningen (1.83 pg). This suggests Excelsior is slightly more consistent defensively, which supports a narrow win prediction for Excelsior.

What do xG stats reveal about attacking efficiency?

Excelsior's xG per game is 1.7 with 2.14 goals scored, indicating slight overperformance, while Groningen has 1.86 xG but 2.17 goals, suggesting clinical finishing. Groningen's higher xG against (2.14) vs Excelsior's 1.21 shows defensive vulnerabilities. This points to a potentially open game with chances for both sides.

Who are the key attackers and their per-90 contributions?

Excelsior's I. Yegoian averages 1.54 shots and 2.57 key passes per 90, contributing 1 goal and 4 assists. Groningen's T. van Bergen is prolific with 3.33 shots and 1.83 key passes per 90, scoring 3 goals and 2 assists. These players are central to their teams' attacking threat.

How do defensive stats impact the match prediction?

Excelsior concedes 1.29 goals per game this season vs Groningen's 1.83, backed by a higher clean sheet rate (29% vs 17%). Last season Groningen had a better defensive baseline (1.3 conceded vs 1.6). This season's data suggests Excelsior's defense is currently more reliable, influencing the predicted 2-1 scoreline.

Why is BTTS likely in this fixture?

Both teams have high BTTS percentages this season: Excelsior 71% and Groningen 83%. Their average goals conceded (1.29 and 1.83) and scored (2.14 and 2.17) per game also support goals at both ends. Past meetings frequently saw multiple goals, including a 3-2 match recently, reinforcing BTTS likelihood.

What supports the over 2.5 goals prediction?

Excelsior has 100% of matches over 2.5 goals this season, Groningen 83%. Both average over 2 goals scored combined per game, with high shot volumes (11.3 and 13.8) and shots on target (4.7 and 5.7). The recent 3-2 H2H and multiple 2-0, 4-0 results also indicate likelihood of over 2.5 goals.

How do head-to-head trends inform the prediction?

Recent H2H matches include a 3-2 win for Excelsior and multiple 2-0 and 4-0 wins for Groningen, showing fluctuating dominance. The close 3-2 result in May 2026 supports a tight game with goals. This balance reinforces the prediction of a narrow 2-1 victory for Excelsior with BTTS.

Is there betting value in this match prediction?

Considering Excelsior's better defensive form this season and their underdog status against a possession-dominant Groningen, the 2-1 win for Excelsior offers value. High BTTS and over 2.5 stats reduce risk on combined goals markets. Small sample sizes caution, but last season baselines support this assessment.