SJ Earthquakes VS Houston Dynamo Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 13, 2026)

San Jose EarthquakesSJ Earthquakes

1 - 0

HT: 1-0

Houston DynamoHouston Dynamo

MLS·Earthquakes Stadium

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Houston Dynamo to win

View Reasoning

Houston Dynamo to win is a compelling bet, supported by their superior overall form with 11 wins compared to San Jose's 8. Furthermore, the Dynamo has a solid clean sheet percentage of 55%, indicating a strong defense, which may limit San Jose's scoring opportunities. Given their historical dominance with 8 wins out of 15 encounters, the odds favor Houston Dynamo in this matchup.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both Teams to Score is a strong bet given that the San Jose Earthquakes have a BTTS percentage of 75%, indicating they frequently find the net in matches. Additionally, their games generally feature a high goal output, as evidenced by a 65% rate for Over 2.5 goals. With Houston Dynamo's defense allowing 18 goals in 20 matches, it's likely that both teams will contribute to the scoreline.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

San Jose Earthquakesper gameHouston Dynamo

1.9

xG for

1.2

1.4

xG against

1.2

49.6

Possession %

47.3

13.8

Shots

13.2

San Jose Earthquakes — last 5

DLLLD

Houston Dynamo — last 5

WDDLW

Team Stats

San Jose Earthquakesper gameHouston Dynamo

1.9

xG for

1.2

1.4

xG against

1.2

49.6

Possession %

47.3

13.8

Shots

13.2

5.3

Shots on tgt

4.6

6.4

Corners

4.3

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

San Jose Earthquakes — last 5

DLLLD

Houston Dynamo — last 5

WDDLW

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
San Jose Earthquakes	--	–	–
Houston Dynamo	9-10-15	1.3	1.6	10

SJ Earthquakes performance

Total Matches

Form

8W5D7L

Avg Scored

1.85

per match

Avg Conceded

1.75

per match

Goals Scored37

Goals Conceded35

Clean Sheets3 (15%)

BTTS75%

Over 2.565%

Over 3.560%

Houston Dynamo performance

Total Matches

Form

11W4D5L

Avg Scored

1.20

per match

Avg Conceded

0.90

per match

Goals Scored24

Goals Conceded18

Clean Sheets11 (55%)

BTTS30%

Over 2.530%

Over 3.510%

Expected Match Outcome

SJ Earthquakes

1-1

(1.4 - 1.5 xG)

Houston Dynamo

SJ Earthquakes

Scores1.85/g

Concedes1.75/g

Houston Dynamo

Scores1.20/g

Concedes0.90/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

53%

Over 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 2.5

53%

Head-to-Head & Form

San Jose Earthquakes wins

Draws

Houston Dynamo wins

Recent meetings

30 Aug 2026Houston Dynamo

0–0

San Jose Earthquakes

24 Aug 2025Houston Dynamo

1–2

San Jose Earthquakes

25 May 2025San Jose Earthquakes

3–3

Houston Dynamo

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	30	20	7	3	+41	67
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	+32	55
2	Inter Miami	30	15	10	5	+22	55
2	St. Louis City	30	14	9	7	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	14	9	7	+8	51
3	New England Revolution	30	16	4	10	+8	52
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	9	8	+10	48
4	Chicago Fire	30	14	6	10	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	13	8	9	+8	47
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	8	9	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	+15	46
6	Philadelphia Union	30	13	7	10	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	12	5	13	-12	41
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	9	10	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	10	11	-9	40
8	New York Red Bulls	30	10	6	14	-17	36
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	6	13	0	39
9	FC Cincinnati	29	9	9	11	-10	36
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	6	14	-3	36
10	Toronto FC	30	8	12	10	-9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	10	5	15	-1	35
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	7	14	-5	34
12	New York City FC	30	8	10	12	+2	34
12	San Diego	30	8	10	12	-3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	8	10	12	-8	34
13	DC United	29	7	12	10	-14	33
14	Austin	30	7	10	13	-18	31
14	Atlanta United FC	30	8	6	16	-14	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	4	20	-39	22
15	CF Montreal	30	6	7	17	-24	25

Overview

San Jose Earthquakes sit 6th with 35 points, while Houston Dynamo are 2nd with 40 points in the MLS standings. Houston's stronger position reflects a slightly better overall form and defensive solidity, although this season's data is limited. Their last meeting ended 0-0, indicating a potentially tight contest. Historically, matches have been competitive with high-scoring draws and narrow wins, suggesting an open game with goal potential.

Form & xG

San Jose's recent form is patchy (DLLLD) with 1.76 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game, supported by an xG of 1.87 for and 1.43 against, hinting at some defensive vulnerability. Houston has a better recent form (WDDLW) but lower goal output (1.33 scored, 1.13 conceded) and xG (1.2 for, 1.23 against), suggesting more conservative play. San Jose's BTTS rate is 57% vs Houston's 38%, indicating San Jose concedes more often.

Team News & Key Players

San Jose's Preston Judd leads with 11 goals and 2 assists, shooting 2.93 times per 90 with 1.62 on target, a key attacking threat. Beau Leroux (4G, 3A) adds creativity and defensive work (2.51 tackles/90). For Houston, Guilherme is pivotal, scoring 13 goals and 6 assists, with 2.38 shots and 1.37 on target per 90, also creating 2.23 key passes/90. Midfielder Jack McGlynn (2G, 5A) is a key playmaker with 3.12 key passes/90.

Stats & Betting Angles

San Jose averages 6.4 corners per game versus Houston's 4.3, showing more attacking set-piece opportunities. Houston has a better clean sheet rate last season (10 CS) compared to San Jose’s unknown baseline, but this season San Jose's CS rate is only 29%. San Jose commits more fouls (12.6 vs 10.5) and receives more cards (2.29 yellows vs 2.04), hinting at a more aggressive style. BTTS is more likely given San Jose’s 57% rate and recent head-to-head high scoring games.

Verdict

Expect a competitive match with goals from both sides due to San Jose’s higher attacking output and Houston’s solid but not impermeable defense. The last few meetings featured multiple goals and BTTS outcomes. San Jose’s attacking stars and Houston's key scorer Guilherme suggest at least three goals in total. Prediction favors a narrow San Jose victory with goals on both ends and over 2.5 goals in total.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has the recent form of both teams influenced this matchup?

San Jose's recent form is poor with DLLLD over their last 5, scoring 1.76 and conceding 1.38 goals per game, reflecting defensive issues. Houston has a better recent form WDDLW, scoring 1.33 and conceding 1.13 per match. This suggests Houston is more stable defensively but less prolific offensively, setting up a clash between San Jose's attack and Houston's defense.

What do the xG stats reveal about the teams’ attacking and defensive qualities?

San Jose's xG is 1.87 for and 1.43 against, indicating they create good chances but also concede higher-quality chances. Houston's xG is lower at 1.2 for and 1.23 against, showing a more conservative attack and slightly better defensive stability. This suggests San Jose plays a more open game, while Houston is more cautious.

Who are the key attacking players and what are their per-90 stats?

San Jose’s Preston Judd leads with 11 goals, 2 assists, and 2.93 shots/90 (1.62 on target). Beau Leroux contributes 4 goals, 3 assists, with 1.41 shots/90 and 2.51 tackles/90. Houston’s Guilherme is crucial with 13 goals, 6 assists, 2.38 shots/90 (1.37 OT), and 2.23 key passes/90. Jack McGlynn also creates chances with 3.12 key passes/90.

How do defensive frailties and clean sheet stats compare?

San Jose concedes 1.38 goals per game with only 29% clean sheets this season, showing defensive vulnerability. Houston concedes 1.13 per game and had 10 clean sheets last season out of 34 matches, indicating better defensive organization. This suggests Houston is more likely to keep San Jose at bay, but San Jose’s attack may still breach Houston’s defense.

What is the rationale behind expecting BTTS in this match?

San Jose has a BTTS rate of 57%, higher than Houston's 38%, and their recent head-to-head includes high-scoring draws (3-3) and narrow wins with goals from both sides. San Jose's higher xG conceded (1.43) and Houston's attacking threats like Guilherme suggest goals at both ends are likely.

Why might over/under 2.5 goals be a good betting angle?

San Jose’s O2.5 rate is 57%, Houston’s 38%, reflecting San Jose’s more attacking style and Houston’s moderate scoring. Recent head-to-heads show multiple goals (3-3, 2-1, 3-3), supporting an Over 2.5 bet. The attacking outputs of Judd (2.93 shots/90) and Guilherme (2.38 shots/90) also back a higher scoring game.

What does the head-to-head history suggest about likely outcomes?

Recent matches show tight results: 0-0, 1-2, 3-3, 0-1, 2-1, and 4-1. This mix of draws and narrow wins with multiple goals suggests a competitive game with goals from both teams. The 3-3 draw and 2-1 results especially imply an open game, favoring BTTS and over 2.5 goals.

Is there a betting value angle in this match based on stats?

Given San Jose’s higher xG and BTTS rate versus Houston’s defensive record, betting on BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 goals offers value. Houston’s low BTTS (38%) may underestimate their ability to concede against San Jose’s potent attack, and the last head-to-heads show multiple goals, supporting this angle.