Real Salt Lake VS New York City Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 13, 2026)

Real Salt LakeReal Salt Lake

0 - 2

HT: 0-1

New York City FCNew York City

MLS·Rio Tinto Stadium

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both teams have shown a strong propensity to score, as evidenced by Real Salt Lake's BTTS rate of 80% and NYCFC's rate of 70%. Given their recent form and the fact that both teams have relatively weak defenses, the likelihood of both teams finding the back of the net is quite high. Historical matchups have also suggested a trend towards both teams scoring, making this a solid bet.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Over 2.5 goals

View Reasoning

With Real Salt Lake averaging 2.13 goals per match and New York City FC averaging 1.44 goals per match, the likelihood of over 2.5 goals being scored is high. Both teams have also shown a strong tendency to participate in high-scoring matches, with Real Salt Lake's O2.5 rate at 70% and NYCFC's at 50%. The head-to-head matches have yielded an average of 3.5 goals per game, further supporting this prediction.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Real Salt Lakeper gameNew York City FC

1.5

xG for

1.4

1.5

xG against

1.5

49.1

Possession %

54.2

13.8

Shots

11.7

Real Salt Lake — last 5

LLLLD

New York City FC — last 5

LDDDL

Team Stats

Real Salt Lakeper gameNew York City FC

1.5

xG for

1.4

1.5

xG against

1.5

49.1

Possession %

54.2

13.8

Shots

11.7

5.2

Shots on tgt

4.8

4.6

Corners

3.8

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Real Salt Lake — last 5

LLLLD

New York City FC — last 5

LDDDL

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Real Salt Lake	12-5-18	1.1	1.5	7
New York City FC	20-5-14	1.4	1.3	11

Real Salt Lake performance

Total Matches

Form

6W5D9L

Avg Scored

1.60

per match

Avg Conceded

1.65

per match

Goals Scored32

Goals Conceded33

Clean Sheets2 (10%)

BTTS80%

Over 2.570%

Over 3.535%

New York City performance

Total Matches

Form

4W7D9L

Avg Scored

1.30

per match

Avg Conceded

1.50

per match

Goals Scored26

Goals Conceded30

Clean Sheets3 (15%)

BTTS70%

Over 2.550%

Over 3.520%

Expected Match Outcome

Real Salt Lake

2-1

(1.6 - 1.5 xG)

New York City

Real Salt Lake

Scores1.60/g

Concedes1.65/g

New York City

Scores1.30/g

Concedes1.50/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

75%

Over 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 2.5

40%

Head-to-Head & Form

Real Salt Lake wins

Draws

New York City FC wins

Recent meetings

24 Jan 2025Real Salt Lake

2–2

New York City FC

24 Jan 2025Real Salt Lake

2–2

New York City FC

11 Jun 2023Real Salt Lake

0–0

New York City FC

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	30	20	7	3	+41	67
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	+32	55
2	Inter Miami	30	15	10	5	+22	55
2	St. Louis City	30	14	9	7	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	14	9	7	+8	51
3	New England Revolution	30	16	4	10	+8	52
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	9	8	+10	48
4	Chicago Fire	30	14	6	10	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	13	8	9	+8	47
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	8	9	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	+15	46
6	Philadelphia Union	30	13	7	10	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	12	5	13	-12	41
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	9	10	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	10	11	-9	40
8	New York Red Bulls	30	10	6	14	-17	36
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	6	13	0	39
9	FC Cincinnati	29	9	9	11	-10	36
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	6	14	-3	36
10	Toronto FC	30	8	12	10	-9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	10	5	15	-1	35
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	7	14	-5	34
12	New York City FC	30	8	10	12	+2	34
12	San Diego	30	8	10	12	-3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	8	10	12	-8	34
13	DC United	29	7	12	10	-14	33
14	Austin	30	7	10	13	-18	31
14	Atlanta United FC	30	8	6	16	-14	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	4	20	-39	22
15	CF Montreal	30	6	7	17	-24	25

Overview

Real Salt Lake and New York City FC both sit mid-table with 29 points, ranked 10th and 8th respectively. Last season, NYCFC was stronger (20W, 1.4 goals per game) versus Real Salt Lake’s 12 wins and 1.1 goals per game. This season’s limited data shows RSL scoring 1.59 and conceding 1.59 per game, while NYCFC scores 1.54 and concedes 1.38. The matchup has seen mixed results, including a recent 2-2 draw and a historical 6-0 thrashing by NYCFC in 2022.

Form & xG

Real Salt Lake’s recent form is poor with five losses in their last six (LLLLD) and an xG of 1.54 for, 1.46 against per match. NYCFC’s form is slightly better (LDDDL) with an xG profile showing 1.39 for and 1.45 against. Both teams have similar expected goals conceded per game, indicating a balanced but vulnerable defense. NYCFC’s possession advantage (54.2%) versus RSL’s 49.1% may influence control but not necessarily scoring.

Team News & Key Players

Key attackers include NYCFC’s Nicolás Fernández with 13 goals and 3 assists, averaging 2.01 shots and 1.48 on target per 90. For Real Salt Lake, Sergi Solans Ormo is top scorer with 9 goals and 3 assists, 2.72 shots and 1.23 OT per 90. Defensive contributions from Zavier Gozo (RSL) and A. Ojeda (NYCFC) add balance. Both teams have players with multiple yellow cards, indicating physical contests.

Stats & Betting Angles

Both teams have a high BTTS rate this season (RSL 77%, NYCFC 71%) and last season’s baseline supports goal-scoring tendencies (RSL 1.1, NYCFC 1.4 goals per game). Over 2.5 goals has hit 68% for RSL and 54% for NYCFC this season. Clean sheets are rare for RSL (9%) but more frequent for NYCFC (17%). The corners and foul stats suggest an open, physical game with potential for multiple goal attempts.

Verdict

Given the attacking output, high BTTS percentages, and recent H2H draws (2-2 and 0-0), a competitive match with goals at both ends is likely. NYCFC’s marginally better defense and possession edge may help them edge the win, but RSL’s home advantage and recent scoring form suggest a close game. Expect a 2-1 result with both teams scoring and the match going over 2.5 goals.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has the recent form of both teams influenced their expected performance?

Real Salt Lake's recent form is poor with five losses in six games (LLLLD), reflecting in their 1.54 xG scored and 1.46 conceded per game. New York City FC is slightly better with LDDDL form and a slightly lower xG for at 1.39 but similar xG conceded at 1.45. This suggests NYCFC may be marginally more stable defensively, though both teams concede similarly.

What does the xG profile indicate about the attacking and defensive capabilities of both teams?

Real Salt Lake’s xG per game this season is 1.54 for and 1.46 against, while NYCFC’s is 1.39 for and 1.45 against. Despite the small sample, RSL’s offense slightly outperforms NYCFC’s, but both concede at similar rates. Last season, NYCFC had a better defensive baseline (1.3 conceded vs. 1.5 for RSL), suggesting NYCFC's defense might be more reliable over longer periods.

Who are the key attackers for both teams and what are their per-90 stats?

For Real Salt Lake, Sergi Solans Ormo leads with 9 goals, 3 assists, 2.72 shots and 1.23 shots on target per 90 minutes. NYCFC relies heavily on Nicolás Fernández, who has 13 goals, 3 assists, 2.01 shots and 1.48 on target per 90. Both players are critical to their teams' offensive output and carry significant goal threat.

How vulnerable are both teams defensively based on recent stats and cards?

Real Salt Lake concedes 1.59 goals per game this season with only 9% clean sheets and averages 2.43 yellow cards per game, indicating defensive frailty and a physical style. NYCFC concedes slightly fewer at 1.38 per game, with 17% clean sheets and fewer yellows (1.75 per game), suggesting a somewhat more disciplined defense but still vulnerable.

What justifies the expectation of BTTS in this match?

Both teams have high BTTS rates this season: Real Salt Lake at 77% and NYCFC at 71%. Last season, both sides scored regularly with RSL scoring 1.1 and NYCFC 1.4 goals per game. Recent head-to-heads include a 2-2 draw and a 0-0, but overall offensive profiles and defensive vulnerabilities support goals at both ends.

Why is Over 2.5 goals a reasonable bet for this fixture?

Real Salt Lake has hit Over 2.5 goals in 68% of matches this season, while NYCFC has done so in 54%. Their combined average goals scored and conceded per match is over 3 (RSL 3.18, NYCFC 2.92), reflecting open games. Historical matches show high-scoring encounters like NYCFC’s 6-0 win and a 2-2 draw, supporting Over 2.5 goals.

What does the head-to-head history suggest about the likely scoreline?

Recent head-to-head matches include a 2-2 draw (2025) and a 0-0 draw (2023), showing competitive balance. The 2022 NYCFC 6-0 win is an outlier. Older results show close games like 3-1, 2-1, and 2-0. This history suggests a tight match with goals, favoring a 2-1 scoreline consistent with recent scoring trends.

Is there any betting value in backing New York City FC for this match?

NYCFC holds a slight edge in standings (#8 vs #10) and last season's defensive baseline (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 for RSL). Their possession advantage (54.2% vs 49.1%) and slightly better recent form (LDDDL vs LLLLD) support a potential win. Betting on NYCFC at competitive odds could offer value given these marginal advantages.