Santander VS Alavés Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 12, 2026)

Real Racing Club de SantanderSantander

2 - 1

HT: 1-1

Deportivo AlavésAlavés

LaLiga·Estadio El Sardinero

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both teams have demonstrated a strong ability to score, with Real Racing Club de Santander having a BTTS rate of 75% and Deportivo Alavés at 70%. This suggests that both teams are likely to find the net in this encounter. Additionally, the head-to-head results show an evenly matched rivalry, further supporting the likelihood of both teams scoring.

Human Analyst

Correct

Over 2.5 goals

View Reasoning

Real Racing Club de Santander has a strong record of overs, with 75% of their matches featuring over 2.5 goals. They have scored 42 goals while conceding 35, indicating a propensity for high-scoring games. Given the head-to-head history, which has seen a total of 35 goals in 15 matches, this match is likely to follow suit, making the over 2.5 goals bet compelling.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Racing Santanderper gameAlaves

1.6

xG for

1.6

xG against

0.7

Possession %

44.8

Shots

13.5

Racing Santander — last 5

WLD

Alaves — last 5

WWDW

Team Stats

Racing Santanderper gameAlaves

1.6

xG for

1.6

xG against

0.7

Possession %

44.8

Shots

13.5

Shots on tgt

5.7

Corners

5.3

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Racing Santander — last 5

WLD

Alaves — last 5

WWDW

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Racing Santander	0-0-0	0	0	0
Alaves	11-10-17	1.2	1.5	5

Santander performance

Total Matches

Form

11W3D6L

Avg Scored

2.10

per match

Avg Conceded

1.75

per match

Goals Scored42

Goals Conceded35

Clean Sheets2 (10%)

BTTS75%

Over 2.575%

Over 3.560%

Alavés performance

Total Matches

Form

7W7D6L

Avg Scored

1.70

per match

Avg Conceded

1.60

per match

Goals Scored34

Goals Conceded32

Clean Sheets4 (20%)

BTTS70%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.535%

Expected Match Outcome

Santander

2-2

(1.9 - 1.7 xG)

Alavés

Santander

Scores2.10/g

Concedes1.75/g

Alavés

Scores1.70/g

Concedes1.60/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

73%

Over 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

48%

Under 2.5

35%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Racing Santander wins

Draws

Alaves wins

Recent meetings

07 Aug 2026Racing Santander

1–1

Alaves

17 Jul 2024Racing Santander

0–0

Alaves

22 Jul 2023Racing Santander

1–2

Alaves

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	+30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	7	1	1	+11	22
3	Real Madrid	9	7	0	2	+14	21
4	Real Betis	9	6	1	2	+2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	5	1	3	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	4	2	3	-2	14
7	Alaves	9	3	2	4	+3	11
8	Celta Vigo	9	2	5	2	+3	11
9	Deportivo La Coruna	9	2	5	2	+1	11
10	Osasuna	9	3	2	4	-8	11
11	Athletic Club	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Villarreal	9	2	3	4	0	9
13	Rayo Vallecano	8	2	3	3	-5	9
14	Getafe	9	2	3	4	-6	9
15	Espanyol	9	2	2	5	-1	8
16	Racing Santander	9	2	2	5	-12	8
17	Levante	8	1	4	3	-4	7
18	Elche	9	1	4	4	-6	7
19	Valencia	9	1	3	5	-9	6
20	Malaga	9	0	4	5	-12	4

Overview

Racing Santander (#12, 4 pts) host Alaves (#2, 10 pts) in a LaLiga fixture with contrasting starts. Alaves have the early edge with 10 points from 4 games, showing strong defensive solidity conceding only 0.75 goals per game this season, supported by last season's 5 clean sheets. Racing, newly promoted, have a balanced but fragile profile conceding 1.67 goals per game. The head-to-head shows close contests: 1-1 draw in August 2026 and a 0-0 in 2024, reflecting competitive parity historically.

Form & xG

Racing's current form WLD aligns with 1.67 goals scored and conceded per game, with an xG of 1.63 for and 0.98 against, showing slight underperformance defensively. Alaves' WWDW run features a strong 2.5 goals scored per game against an xG of 1.58, indicating clinical finishing. Both teams average below 47% possession, emphasizing counter-attacking styles. Last season's baseline heavily favors Alaves' defensive resilience (1.5 conceded pg) compared to Racing's untested top-flight status.

Team News & Key Players

Racing relies on Sergio Canales (6.8 rating) who averages 2.56 shots/90 with 1.42 on target, key for their 1 goal so far. Iñigo Vicente provides creativity with 3.19 key passes/90. Defensively, Manu Hernando commits 1.17 fouls/90. Alaves' Antonio Blanco (6.78 rating) leads with 2.01 shots/90 and strong defensive tackling (2.68/90). Defender N. Tenaglia adds goals (1) and tackles (1.67/90). Goalkeeper Sivera boasts a 7.21 rating and 1 assist, highlighting their defensive strength.

Stats & Betting Angles

Racing's 67% BTTS and Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Alaves' 50% in both categories, suggesting a moderately high-scoring game with goals at both ends. Corners average 5.7 (Racing) and 5.3 (Alaves) per game, below match averages, indicating fewer set-piece chances. Alaves' 50% clean sheet rate and Racing's 0% this season hint at defensive vulnerabilities on the home side, favoring at least one Alaves goal. Cards per game are similar (~2.4 yellows each), implying disciplined but physical play.

Verdict

Given Alaves' superior form, defensive baseline, and clinical finishing, they are slight favorites. Racing's home advantage and attacking potential (1.67 goals scored) suggest a competitive fixture. Expect an open game with both teams scoring, leaning towards a 2-1 Alaves win. The predicted BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 goals align with recent form and historical head-to-head results, offering a balanced yet attacking encounter.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do the recent forms of Racing Santander and Alaves compare?

Racing Santander's recent form is WLD (4 points in 3 games) with 1.67 goals scored and conceded per game, indicating balanced but leaky defense. Alaves shows stronger form WWDW (10 points in 4 games) scoring 2.5 goals and conceding 0.75 per game, reflecting both attacking efficiency and defensive solidity. The sample size is small, but Alaves' superior early-season output and last season's defensive baseline favor them.

What does the xG profile reveal about both teams?

Racing Santander's xG is 1.63 for and 0.98 against per game, indicating a slight underperformance defensively given 1.67 goals conceded. Alaves' xG is 1.58 for and 0.69 against, showing clinical finishing with 2.5 goals scored per game, outperforming xG. Both teams have low possession (~46%), suggesting reliance on transition attacks. The last season baseline favors Alaves' defense conceding 1.5 goals per game.

Who are the key attackers and what are their per-90 statistics?

For Racing Santander, Sergio Canales leads with 2.56 shots and 1.42 on target per 90 minutes, plus 0.28 key passes. Iñigo Vicente contributes 3.19 key passes/90 but low shots (0.27). Alaves' Antonio Blanco is notable with 2.01 shots/90 and 0 key passes, while N. Tenaglia adds goal threat with 1 goal and 1 shots/90. These figures highlight Canales and Blanco as primary offensive outlets.

What defensive weaknesses or strengths do the teams show?

Racing concedes 1.67 goals per game, higher than their xG conceded (0.98), indicating defensive frailty. They have 0 clean sheets this season. Alaves concede only 0.75 goals per game, outperforming their 0.69 xG against, supported by 50% clean sheet rate. Defenders like N. Tenaglia (1.67 tackles/90) and goalkeeper Sivera (rating 7.21) strengthen Alaves' backline, contrasting with Racing's higher fouls (16 per game) and 2.33 yellows.

Why is BTTS (Both Teams To Score) likely in this match?

Racing's BTTS rate is 67%, reflecting their 1.67 goals conceded and scored per game. Alaves have a 50% BTTS rate, with a strong attack scoring 2.5 goals per game but a solid defense conceding only 0.75. Racing's lack of clean sheets (0%) contrasts with Alaves' 50%, suggesting Racing's defense is vulnerable to Alaves' attack. The recent 1-1 draw and 1-2 scorelines in head-to-head also support a BTTS outcome.

What is the rationale behind the Over/Under 2.5 goals bet?

Racing has 67% Over 2.5 rate, aligned with 1.67 goals scored and conceded per game, indicating open games. Alaves shows 50% Over 2.5, with 2.5 goals scored and only 0.75 conceded, suggesting efficient scoring. The head-to-head includes multiple matches over 2.5 goals (e.g., 1-2, 3-0). Combined, these stats support an Over 2.5 goals outcome for this fixture.

Are there any betting value angles for this fixture?

Alaves is priced as favorites given their 10 points and defensive baseline, but Racing's 67% BTTS and Over 2.5 rates suggest value in betting on goals and both teams scoring. The 0% clean sheet rate for Racing and Alaves' 50% suggest defensive vulnerabilities. The recent 1-1 draw and 1-2 loss for Racing in head-to-head hint at close scorelines, making a 2-1 Alaves win with BTTS and Over 2.5 a balanced value bet.