QPR VS Derby County Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Oct 14, 2026)

Queens Park Rangers FCQPR

4 - 1

HT: 3-0

Derby County FCDerby County

Championship·Loftus Road

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Over 2.5 goals

@1.92

View Reasoning

Both teams have a high likelihood of producing goals, with Derby County FC having an O2.5 percentage of 65% and Queens Park Rangers FC at 55%. The overall trends indicate an attacking style from both sides, supported by their head-to-head history, which has seen a total of 23 goals in their last 10 matches. Therefore, betting on over 2.5 goals seems very plausible.

Human Analyst

Correct

Both Teams to Score

@1.87

View Reasoning

Both teams have shown a tendency to score in their recent matches, with Queens Park Rangers FC having a BTTS percentage of 55% and Derby County FC at 65%. The head-to-head record also supports this prediction, as their last 10 encounters resulted in 23 total goals, indicating both teams are capable of finding the net. Given these statistics, this bet appears to be a strong option.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

QPRper gameDerby

1.7

xG for

0.9

xG against

1.4

50.5

Possession %

49.9

16.9

Shots

12.1

QPR — last 5

DDDLW

Derby — last 5

DLLLW

Team Stats

QPRper gameDerby

1.7

xG for

0.9

xG against

1.4

50.5

Possession %

49.9

16.9

Shots

12.1

5.3

Shots on tgt

3.6

6.9

Corners

6.4

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

QPR — last 5

DDDLW

Derby — last 5

DLLLW

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
QPR	16-10-20	1.3	1.6	10
Derby	20-9-17	1.5	1.3	12

QPR performance

Total Matches

Form

8W7D5L

Avg Scored

1.60

per match

Avg Conceded

1.20

per match

Goals Scored32

Goals Conceded24

Clean Sheets5 (25%)

BTTS60%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.535%

Derby County performance

Total Matches

Form

5W4D11L

Avg Scored

1.15

per match

Avg Conceded

1.55

per match

Goals Scored23

Goals Conceded31

Clean Sheets3 (15%)

BTTS65%

Over 2.560%

Over 3.520%

Expected Match Outcome

QPR

2-1

(1.6 - 1.2 xG)

Derby County

QPR

Scores1.60/g

Concedes1.20/g

Derby County

Scores1.15/g

Concedes1.55/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

63%

Over 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 2.5

43%

Head-to-Head & Form

QPR wins

Draws

Derby wins

Recent meetings

25 Apr 2026QPR

2–3

Derby

25 Oct 2025Derby

1–0

QPR

14 Feb 2025QPR

4–0

Derby

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	14	8	4	2	+11	28
2	Wolves	14	8	3	3	+8	27
3	Birmingham	14	7	5	2	+13	26
4	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	+5	26
5	Swansea	14	8	2	4	+5	26
6	West Brom	14	7	4	3	+5	25
7	Southampton	14	8	4	2	+15	24
8	West Ham	14	6	5	3	+15	23
9	Sheffield Utd	14	6	4	4	+3	22
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	+3	22
11	QPR	14	5	6	3	+5	21
12	Norwich	14	6	0	8	+3	18
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	-1	18
14	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-2	18
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-3	18
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17
17	Bolton	14	5	2	7	-7	17
18	Cardiff	14	3	6	5	-1	15
19	Lincoln	14	4	3	7	-10	15
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14
21	Charlton	14	3	5	6	-11	14
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10
23	Derby	14	1	4	9	-18	7
24	Preston	14	1	2	11	-18	5

Overview

QPR sit comfortably in 6th place with 13 points, showing a stronger start than Derby, who are bottom at 22nd with 5 points. Last season, Derby outperformed QPR in overall points and defensive solidity, conceding 1.3 goals per game compared to QPR's 1.6. However, this season's small-sample xG data favors QPR with 1.68 expected goals per game versus Derby's 1.03, suggesting QPR are creating better chances early on despite a similar possession split near 50%.

Form & xG

QPR's recent form (DDDLW) includes a higher scoring rate of 1.25 goals per game with underlying xG at 1.68, indicating some finishing below expected levels. Derby's form (DLLLW) and 0.88 goals per game with 1.03 xG point to struggles in attack and defense, conceding 1.75 goals per game. QPR's defensive xG against is 0.87 compared to Derby's 1.43, reinforcing QPR's better defensive metrics this season despite the limited 8-game sample.

Team News & Key Players

QPR's Rumarn Burrell leads with 1.9 shots and 0.95 on target per 90 minutes, supported by 1.75 key passes per 90, making him the focal attacking threat. Derby relies on S. Szmodics, who averages 2.97 shots and 0.99 on target per 90, but Derby's overall defensive discipline is weaker, with Sondre Langås and C. Taylor accumulating 4 yellow cards combined. Both teams have injury concerns minimal, but Derby's higher fouls (13.4 per game) and cards (2.25 yellows) may impact their defensive stability.

Stats & Betting Angles

QPR average 6.9 corners per game versus Derby's 6.4, with match averages around 11-12 total corners, suggesting moderate attacking pressure. Both teams have contrasting BTTS rates: QPR at 63% and Derby 50%, while over 2.5 goals occur in 50% of QPR's games and 63% of Derby's. Clean sheets are more frequent for QPR (25%) than Derby (13%) this season. The H2H reveals recent high-scoring matches, including a 3-2 Derby win and a 4-0 QPR victory, supporting an expectation of multiple goals.

Verdict

Despite Derby's superior last season baseline, current season form, xG, and home advantage favor QPR. Both sides have capable attackers, but Derby's defensive issues and disciplinary record may cost them. The history of recent close, high-scoring encounters and the stats suggest a competitive match with goals at both ends, leaning towards a narrow QPR win with over 2.5 goals and BTTS likely.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has recent form impacted both teams' goal-scoring?

QPR's recent form (DDDLW) includes scoring 1.25 goals per game, slightly below their xG of 1.68, indicating some finishing inefficiency. Derby's form (DLLLW) shows 0.88 goals per game with an xG of 1.03, reflecting struggles to convert chances. QPR have conceded only 0.88 goals per game, better than Derby's 1.75, reinforcing their stronger recent defensive performance.

What does the xG profile suggest about the attacking strengths?

QPR's xG of 1.68 per game indicates they create more and better chances than Derby, whose xG is 1.03. Key player Rumarn Burrell averages 1.9 shots and 0.95 on target per 90 minutes, while Derby's top attacker S. Szmodics has 2.97 shots but only 0.99 on target, reflecting QPR's more efficient threat with better shot quality and key passes.

Who are the key attackers and their per-90 contributions?

QPR's Rumarn Burrell leads with 1.9 shots, 0.95 on target, and 1.75 key passes per 90 minutes, contributing 2 goals and 1 assist in 7 appearances. Derby's S. Szmodics averages 2.97 shots, 0.99 on target, and 0.66 key passes per 90, with 2 goals and 1 assist in 7 games. Both players are central to their teams' attacking output.

How vulnerable is each defense based on cards and fouls?

Derby concedes 1.75 goals per game and commits 13.4 fouls with 2.25 yellow cards per match, indicating defensive vulnerability and discipline issues. QPR concede less (0.88 goals per game), commit fewer fouls (8.8), and receive fewer yellows (1.63). Derby's defenders Sondre Langås and C. Taylor have 4 combined yellows, increasing risk of suspensions and instability.

Why is BTTS a strong possibility in this match?

QPR's BTTS rate is 63%, aligning with their 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. Derby's BTTS is 50%, with 0.88 scored and 1.75 conceded. Recent H2H includes high-scoring games (3-2, 4-0), indicating both teams often concede and score. Defensive frailties and key attacking players support a high likelihood of goals at both ends.

What supports the over/under 2.5 goals prediction?

Derby's matches have 63% over 2.5 goals, QPR's 50%. Recent H2H such as 3-2 and 4-0 scorelines show frequent high-scoring affairs. Despite QPR's more solid defense, Derby concedes 1.75 goals per game, raising the match goal total expectation above 2.5. Current season samples are small but consistent with last season's trend where both teams averaged over 2.5 goals in their encounters.

How does the head-to-head history influence the match outlook?

Recent H2H matches are competitive with close scorelines: Derby won 3-2 in April 2026, QPR won 4-0 in February 2025, and several 1-0 or 2-1 results. The mix of tight defensive games and high-scoring contests suggests unpredictability but a tendency for both teams to score and for the match to have multiple goals.

Is there betting value in this match prediction?

Given QPR's better form, xG, and home advantage, betting on a narrow QPR win offers value against Derby’s historical superiority. The BTTS and over 2.5 goals markets align well with recent stats and H2H, providing additional value. Derby’s disciplinary issues increase risk of conceding goals, supporting bets on multiple goals and BTTS.