Parma VS Genoa Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 20, 2026)

Parma Calcio 1913Parma

2 - 1

HT: 1-0

Genoa CFCGenoa

Serie A·Stadio Ennio Tardini

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Genoa CFC to win

@2.61

View Reasoning

Genoa CFC has a slightly better record compared to Parma Calcio 1913, with 6 wins against Parma's 4, and they have a higher goal-scoring rate. Additionally, Parma's defensive record shows they have conceded more goals (23) than they have scored, which may give Genoa an advantage. With a history of competitive matches where Genoa has performed well, this makes a win for Genoa CFC a strong possibility.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Under 2.5 goals

@1.62

View Reasoning

Given the statistics, Parma Calcio 1913 has struggled to find the net, scoring only 14 goals in 20 matches, while Genoa CFC has also been inefficient with just 18 goals in 20 matches. Both teams have low BTTS percentages at 40% and 45%, indicating a tendency to not score in matches. The H2H results show a history of low-scoring encounters, with an average of 2.7 goals per match over the last 10 games, suggesting that Under 2.5 goals is a reasonable prediction.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Parmaper gameGenoa

0.5

xG for

0.6

1.3

xG against

1.2

44.5

Possession %

8.5

Shots

Parma — last 5

Genoa — last 5

LLL

Team Stats

Parmaper gameGenoa

0.5

xG for

0.6

1.3

xG against

1.2

44.5

Possession %

8.5

Shots

2.5

Shots on tgt

1.7

2.5

Corners

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Parma — last 5

Genoa — last 5

LLL

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Parma	11-12-15	0.7	1.2	13
Genoa	10-11-17	1.1	1.3	9

Parma performance

Total Matches

Form

4W7D9L

Avg Scored

0.70

per match

Avg Conceded

1.15

per match

Goals Scored14

Goals Conceded23

Clean Sheets5 (25%)

BTTS40%

Over 2.510%

Over 3.55%

Genoa performance

Total Matches

Form

6W4D10L

Avg Scored

0.90

per match

Avg Conceded

1.70

per match

Goals Scored18

Goals Conceded34

Clean Sheets4 (20%)

BTTS45%

Over 2.540%

Over 3.520%

Expected Match Outcome

Parma

1-1

(1.2 - 1.0 xG)

Genoa

Parma

Scores0.70/g

Concedes1.15/g

Genoa

Scores0.90/g

Concedes1.70/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

43%

Over 2.5

25%

Over 3.5

13%

Under 2.5

75%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Parma wins

Draws

Genoa wins

Recent meetings

18 Jan 2026Parma

0–0

Genoa

19 Oct 2025Genoa

0–0

Parma

12 Jan 2025Genoa

1–0

Parma

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Lazio	7	6	1	0	+10	19
3	AS Roma	7	5	2	0	+13	17
4	AC Milan	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Como	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	Frosinone	7	4	1	2	+4	13
7	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	-1	13
8	Juventus	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Napoli	7	3	1	3	+3	10
10	Torino	7	3	1	3	+1	10
11	Atalanta	7	3	0	4	-1	9
12	Lecce	7	3	0	4	-3	9
13	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Monza	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Udinese	7	1	1	5	-7	4
17	Genoa	7	1	1	5	-8	4
18	Fiorentina	7	1	1	5	-9	4
19	Parma	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Venezia	7	1	0	6	-10	3

Overview

Parma and Genoa both sit near the bottom of the standings, with Parma 17th on 1 point and Genoa 19th with none after the opening matches. Historically, their recent head-to-heads have been low-scoring, with two 0-0 draws in the last two meetings and only one match above 2 goals (3-3 in 2022). Both teams struggled offensively last season, Parma scoring 0.7 goals per game and Genoa 1.1 on average.

Form & xG

This season's small sample shows Parma with 0 goals scored and an xG of 0.5 per game, conceding 1.26; Genoa has 0.33 goals per game with a similar xG of 0.55 but conceding 1.2. Both teams have poor form (Parma LL, Genoa LLL). Parma's possession is slightly lower at 44.5% compared to Genoa's 46%. Neither side has scored in their recent games, aligning with last season's frequent scoreless outings (16 and 15 games failed to score respectively).

Team news & key players

Key players for Parma like Valeri and Delprato have low attacking output (1 shot per 90 minutes, no goals/assists). El Bilal Touré, their main forward, averages just 0.53 shots per 90 with no goals yet. Genoa's Morten Frendrup is their most creative with 1.33 key passes per 90 and 0.67 shots but no goals. Defensive discipline is notable, with Parma’s Corvi and Genoa’s Østigård both yet to concede cards this season, though Østigård has 3 yellows overall.

Stats & betting angles

Both teams have recorded 0% BTTS this season for Parma and only 33% for Genoa, reflecting their defensive struggles but offensive inefficiency. Genoa averages more corners (4 per game) versus Parma's 2.5, suggesting more attacking pressure from Genoa. Last season, Parma kept 13 clean sheets versus Genoa’s 9, but both failed to score frequently (16 and 15 times). The low xG and shot volumes indicate under 2.5 goals is likely, with BTTS less probable but possible given Genoa’s slightly higher BTTS rate.

Verdict

Expect a tight, low-scoring match with limited chances. Parma’s slight defensive edge and Genoa’s marginally better attack suggest a 2-1 scoreline with both teams scoring. The history of stalemates and low goals supports an under 2.5 goals prediction, but Genoa’s occasional BTTS hints at goals from both sides. Overall, a narrow Genoa victory or close game with goals from both sides is the forecast.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has each team's recent form influenced their current standing?

Parma has a form of LL (2 losses) and Genoa LLL (3 losses), explaining their low points tally (1 and 0 points respectively). Parma conceded 1.5 goals per game this season, Genoa 2.33, both underperforming compared to last season's 1.2 and 1.3 conceded per game. Their poor recent form correlates with low goals scored (0 and 0.33 per game) and poor offensive xG (0.5 and 0.55), confirming struggles at both ends.

What does the xG profile reveal about Parma and Genoa's attacking threat?

Parma's xG of 0.5 per game and Genoa's 0.55 this season are low, indicating limited clear chances created. Last season, Parma averaged 0.7 goals and Genoa 1.1, showing a baseline of low scoring. Genoa's slightly higher xG and shots per game (10 vs. Parma's 8.5) suggest marginally better attacking threat, but both teams are underperforming their xG with actual goals scored being 0 and 0.33 respectively.

Who are the key attacking players and their per-90 contributions?

For Parma, El Bilal Touré is the main attacker with 0.53 shots and 0.53 on-target shots per 90 but no goals or assists yet. Valeri and Delprato contribute 1 shot per 90 but no key passes. Genoa's Morten Frendrup leads with 0.67 shots and 1.33 key passes per 90, though no goals yet. This low attacking output from key players underlines the offensive struggles.

How vulnerable are both teams defensively?

Parma concedes 1.5 goals per game this season (vs. 1.2 last season), Genoa 2.33 (vs. 1.3). Parma kept 13 clean sheets last season, Genoa 9, showing Parma’s slightly better defensive baseline. Both teams have low fouls per game (Parma 9, Genoa 8) and fairly disciplined defensive stats, but Genoa’s higher yellow cards (2 per game) suggest more defensive pressure. Defensive frailty likely leads to goals conceded despite low attacking threat.

Why is BTTS a reasonable bet despite low scoring?

BTTS is 0% for Parma this season but 33% for Genoa, reflecting Genoa’s slightly better offensive threat and defensive lapses. Last season, Parma failed to score in 16 games, Genoa in 15, but Genoa also conceded more. The 2-1 predicted score aligns with BTTS Yes, as Genoa is more likely to score while Parma may snatch a goal given Genoa’s defensive frailty.

What supports the over/under 2.5 goals prediction?

Both teams have 0% (Parma) and 33% (Genoa) over 2.5 goals matches this season, with last season averages around 2 goals per game combined (Parma 0.7 scored + 1.2 conceded = 1.9; Genoa 1.1 + 1.3 = 2.4). The predicted 2-1 scoreline (3 goals) supports Over 2.5. However, historical head-to-heads lean low-scoring, so confidence is moderate.

Is there any betting value in this fixture?

Given Genoa's slightly better attacking metrics (10 shots vs Parma's 8.5, 4 corners vs 2.5) and Parma's defensive edge (13 clean sheets vs Genoa's 9 last season), betting on a narrow Genoa win with BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 goals holds value. The predicted 2-1 scoreline combines these trends and accounts for Genoa’s defensive lapses, offering a potentially profitable angle.