Newcastle VS Hull City Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 19, 2026)

Newcastle United FCNewcastle

2 - 1

HT: 2-0

Hull City AFCHull City

Premier League·St. James' Park

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Newcastle United FC to win

@1.65

View Reasoning

Newcastle United FC to win is a reasonable prediction as they have a slight edge in the H2H record with 3 wins out of 6 against Hull City AFC. Additionally, Newcastle's home performance shows they are competitive with a better overall win rate of 38% compared to Hull's 31%, despite the goals conceded being similar. With Newcastle's offensive capabilities (30 goals scored) and Hull's defensive vulnerabilities (16 goals against), the home team is favored to take all three points.

Human Analyst

Correct

Both Teams to Score

@1.70

View Reasoning

Both Teams to Score is a strong bet in this matchup, as Newcastle United FC has a BTTS percentage of 75%, indicating their high likelihood of scoring. Hull City AFC, while lower at 45%, has still managed to find the net consistently, demonstrated by their 22 goals scored. Given their recent H2H history, where both teams scored in 5 out of the last 6 encounters, this trend supports the prediction.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Newcastleper gameHull City

xG for

0.8

1.8

xG against

1.7

46.3

Possession %

28.3

10.7

Shots

8.3

Newcastle — last 5

DWD

Hull City — last 5

DWW

Team Stats

Newcastleper gameHull City

xG for

0.8

1.8

xG against

1.7

46.3

Possession %

28.3

10.7

Shots

8.3

2.7

Shots on tgt

3.3

4.3

Corners

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

100

Newcastle — last 5

DWD

Hull City — last 5

DWW

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Newcastle	14-7-17	1.4	1.4	8
Hull City	0-0-0	0	0	0

Newcastle performance

Total Matches

Form

7W5D8L

Avg Scored

1.50

per match

Avg Conceded

1.60

per match

Goals Scored30

Goals Conceded32

Clean Sheets3 (15%)

BTTS75%

Over 2.565%

Over 3.540%

Hull City performance

Total Matches

Form

7W9D4L

Avg Scored

1.10

per match

Avg Conceded

0.80

per match

Goals Scored22

Goals Conceded16

Clean Sheets9 (45%)

BTTS45%

Over 2.535%

Over 3.510%

Expected Match Outcome

Newcastle

1-1

(1.1 - 1.4 xG)

Hull City

Newcastle

Scores1.50/g

Concedes1.60/g

Hull City

Scores1.10/g

Concedes0.80/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

60%

Over 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 2.5

50%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	7	7	0	0	+12	21
2	Arsenal	7	6	0	1	+6	18
3	Brighton	7	5	1	1	+18	16
4	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	+4	13
5	Liverpool	7	3	3	1	+1	12
6	Brentford	7	2	4	1	+5	10
7	Leeds	7	2	4	1	+3	10
8	Everton	7	2	4	1	+1	10
9	Hull City	7	2	3	2	+1	9
10	Ipswich	7	3	0	4	-4	9
11	Newcastle	7	2	2	3	-4	8
12	Aston Villa	7	2	2	3	-4	8
13	Manchester United	7	1	4	2	0	7
14	Crystal Palace	7	2	1	4	-8	7
15	Bournemouth	7	1	3	3	-4	6
16	Tottenham	7	1	3	3	-4	6
17	Coventry	7	2	0	5	-8	6
18	Fulham	7	1	2	4	-3	5
19	Nottingham Forest	7	1	2	4	-4	5
20	Sunderland	7	1	1	5	-8	4

Overview

Newcastle currently sit 7th with 5 points from 3 games, showing a slight dip from last season's baseline of 1.4 goals per game and conceding 1.4. Hull City, newly promoted, impressively hold 3rd place with 7 points and a perfect defensive record of 0 goals conceded so far. The match on 19 September is a key early-season test for Newcastle to assert their experience against Hull's solid start.

Form & xG

Newcastle's recent form reads DWD with an xG of 1.0 and xGA 1.82 per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities compared to last season's 1.4 conceded. Hull, with form DWW, show a lower xG of 0.77 but strong defense (xGA 1.68) and 3 clean sheets from 3 games, reflecting their 100% clean sheet rate. Newcastle’s possession at 46.3% contrasts with Hull’s 28.3%, suggesting Hull rely on counterattacks.

Team News & Key Players

Newcastle’s Lewis Hall stands out with a high rating (8.25) and 1.5 key passes per 90, while Harvey Barnes offers creativity (1.01 KP/90). Defensively, Botman (6.75 rating) has 1 yellow card. Hull’s goalkeeper K. Tzolakis (7.56 rating) and defender John Egan (7.19) anchor their defense. Mohamed Belloumi leads Hull’s attack with 1.76 shots and 0.35 OT per 90, despite no goals yet.

Stats & Betting Angles

Newcastle average 4.3 corners per match versus Hull’s 2.0, indicating more attacking pressure. Newcastle’s fouls (14.7) and cards (3 yellows per game) surpass Hull’s 9.3 fouls and 2.67 yellows, hinting at a more aggressive style. BTTS occurs 67% in Newcastle’s games but 0% for Hull, who have kept clean sheets in all matches. Over 2.5 goals hit 67% for Newcastle but 0% for Hull, suggesting a clash of attacking intent versus defensive solidity.

Verdict

Given Newcastle’s higher xG and attacking stats but Hull’s perfect defensive record, expect a competitive match with Newcastle likely scoring but Hull’s defense limiting the total goals. BTTS is probable based on Newcastle’s 67% rate and Hull’s defensive resilience. The predicted scoreline balances Newcastle’s attack and Hull’s defensive strength, favoring a narrow 2-1 home win.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is Newcastle's recent form and underlying stats shaping expectations for this match?

Newcastle's recent form is DWD with 5 points from 3 games, scoring 2 goals and conceding 4 total. Their xG this season is 1.0 per game, underperforming their xGA of 1.82, signaling defensive issues. Compared to last season's 1.4 goals and 1.4 conceded per game baseline, Newcastle's defense appears weaker early on. Their possession rate at 46.3% suggests they try to control games but have struggled defensively.

What does the xG profile suggest about Hull City's playing style and defensive strength?

Hull City has an xG of 0.77 and xGA of 1.68 per game, indicating fewer chances created but a solid defensive setup. Their 100% clean sheet rate in 3 games aligns with conceding only 1.68 xGA per match, outperforming Newcastle’s defense. Their low possession at 28.3% suggests a counter-attacking style, relying on defensive organization rather than sustained pressure.

Which key Newcastle player is most influential in attack based on per-90 stats?

Lewis Hall leads Newcastle’s attacking creativity with 1.5 key passes per 90 minutes and 0.5 shots per 90, indicating his role as a primary chance creator. Harvey Barnes also contributes with 1.01 key passes per 90. Despite no goals so far, their combined creativity is vital to Newcastle’s offense, especially with only 2 goals scored in 3 games.

What defensive concerns arise from Newcastle’s early season stats?

Newcastle concedes 1.33 goals per game but has an xGA of 1.82, indicating they are somewhat unlucky or vulnerable defensively. Their 3 yellow cards per game and 14.7 fouls suggest a physical but possibly undisciplined defense. Last season, they averaged 1.4 conceded per game with 8 clean sheets, so early defensive frailty is a concern against a well-organized Hull side.

Why is BTTS (Both Teams To Score) an interesting betting angle here?

Newcastle’s matches see BTTS 67% of the time, reflecting their attacking output but defensive lapses. Hull, however, have 0% BTTS with 3 clean sheets, suggesting a strong defense but limited scoring. This contrast makes BTTS a valuable bet, expecting Newcastle to score but Hull’s defense to limit Hull’s goals, leading to a likely BTTS outcome.

What does the over/under 2.5 goals statistic indicate for this fixture?

Newcastle’s games hit over 2.5 goals 67% of the time, aligning with their attacking style. Hull’s matches are 0% over 2.5, reflecting defensive solidity and low scoring. The clash suggests a balanced outcome but with enough chances for a 3-goal match, favoring Over 2.5 goals given Newcastle's higher xG and average goals scored.

Are there any head-to-head trends or betting values given no recent meetings?

With no recent head-to-head data, the betting value lies in analyzing Newcastle’s attacking stats against Hull’s defensive record. Newcastle’s higher xG and home advantage (46.3% possession) give them a slight edge, while Hull’s clean sheets suggest a good underdog defense. Value may lie in backing Newcastle narrowly to win 2-1 with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals.