New York RB VS St. Louis Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 26, 2026)

New York Red BullsNew York RB

0 - 3

HT: 0-1

St. Louis CitySt. Louis

MLS·Sports Illustrated Stadium

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

@1.44

View Reasoning

Both teams have a high probability of scoring, with St. Louis City having an impressive 80% BTTS rate this season and the Red Bulls at 65%. Their offensive capabilities are evident, as St. Louis has scored 40 goals and the Red Bulls have 26. Given their recent head-to-head record, which shows goals on both sides, betting on both teams to score is a favorable option.

Human Analyst

Correct

Over 2.5 goals

@1.45

View Reasoning

The New York Red Bulls have shown a tendency for high-scoring games, with 55% of their matches resulting in over 2.5 goals. Additionally, St. Louis City boasts a higher goal-scoring record with 40 goals this season, contributing to an overall 70% occurrence of over 2.5 goals in their matches. Given their head-to-head encounters have produced 9 goals in 3 matches, the likelihood of this match exceeding 2.5 goals is strong.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

New York Red Bullsper gameSt. Louis City

1.7

xG for

1.5

xG against

1.1

53.2

Possession %

51.2

13.2

Shots

13.6

New York Red Bulls — last 5

LDLDL

St. Louis City — last 5

DWDWD

Team Stats

New York Red Bullsper gameSt. Louis City

1.7

xG for

1.5

xG against

1.1

53.2

Possession %

51.2

13.2

Shots

13.6

4.8

Shots on tgt

4.5

5.8

Corners

5.5

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

New York Red Bulls — last 5

LDLDL

St. Louis City — last 5

DWDWD

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
New York Red Bulls	12-7-15	1.4	1.4	10
St. Louis City	8-8-18	1.3	1.7	6

New York RB performance

Total Matches

Form

6W4D10L

Avg Scored

1.20

per match

Avg Conceded

1.80

per match

Goals Scored24

Goals Conceded36

Clean Sheets3 (15%)

BTTS60%

Over 2.550%

Over 3.540%

St. Louis performance

Total Matches

Form

13W6D1L

Avg Scored

2.15

per match

Avg Conceded

1.15

per match

Goals Scored43

Goals Conceded23

Clean Sheets4 (20%)

BTTS75%

Over 2.570%

Over 3.545%

Expected Match Outcome

New York RB

1-2

(1.2 - 2.0 xG)

St. Louis

New York RB

Scores1.20/g

Concedes1.80/g

St. Louis

Scores2.15/g

Concedes1.15/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

68%

Over 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 2.5

40%

Head-to-Head & Form

New York Red Bulls wins

Draws

St. Louis City wins

Recent meetings

24 Jan 2026New York Red Bulls

3–1

St. Louis City

29 Jan 2025New York Red Bulls

0–1

St. Louis City

10 Feb 2024St. Louis City

2–2

New York Red Bulls

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	30	20	7	3	+41	67
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	+32	55
2	Inter Miami	30	15	10	5	+22	55
2	St. Louis City	30	14	9	7	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	14	9	7	+8	51
3	New England Revolution	30	16	4	10	+8	52
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	9	8	+10	48
4	Chicago Fire	30	14	6	10	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	13	8	9	+8	47
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	8	9	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	+15	46
6	Philadelphia Union	30	13	7	10	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	12	5	13	-12	41
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	9	10	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	10	11	-9	40
8	New York Red Bulls	30	10	6	14	-17	36
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	6	13	0	39
9	FC Cincinnati	29	9	9	11	-10	36
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	6	14	-3	36
10	Toronto FC	30	8	12	10	-9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	10	5	15	-1	35
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	7	14	-5	34
12	New York City FC	30	8	10	12	+2	34
12	San Diego	30	8	10	12	-3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	8	10	12	-8	34
13	DC United	29	7	12	10	-14	33
14	Austin	30	7	10	13	-18	31
14	Atlanta United FC	30	8	6	16	-14	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	4	20	-39	22
15	CF Montreal	30	6	7	17	-24	25

Overview

New York Red Bulls currently sit 12th with 27 points, while St. Louis City are 6th with 38 points in the league standings. Last season, NYRB averaged 1.4 goals and 1.4 conceded per game, with 10 clean sheets. St. Louis City managed 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded, with 6 clean sheets. Despite NYRB's lower table position, recent head-to-head favors them with a 3-1 home win in January 2026.

Form & xG

NYRB's recent form is inconsistent (LDLDL), scoring 1.33 and conceding 2.0 goals per game this season, with an xG of 1.7 for and 2.01 against. St. Louis City show steadier form (DWDWD), scoring 1.58 and conceding 1.38, with respective xG of 1.52 and 1.06. Both teams have BTTS rates above 65% this season, supporting likelihood of goals at both ends.

Team News & Key Players

NYRB rely on Julian Hall (8G, 3A; 1.73 shots/90) and Emil Forsberg (2G, 4A; 1.24 shots/90). Defensive contributions come from Adri Mehmeti (2.08 tackles/90). St. Louis City feature Rafael Navarro as main attacker (9G, 3A; 2.19 shots/90, 1.34 on target), supported by Simon Becher (6G, 4A). Defensively, Daniel Edelman (3G, 2A; 1.62 tackles/90) and Dante Polvara (1.76 tackles/90) provide solidity.

Stats & Betting Angles

NYRB average 5.8 corners per game (match avg 10.9), while St. Louis City average 5.5 (match avg 10.2). Both teams commit around 12-14 fouls and receive about 2 yellow cards per game. BTTS percentage is high: NYRB 67%, St. Louis City 71%. Over 2.5 goals is 58% for NYRB, 50% for St. Louis City. Last season’s baseline suggests moderate goal-scoring with defensive vulnerabilities.

Verdict

Expect an open game with goals at both ends given high BTTS percentages (67% and 71%) and recent xG profiles. NYRB’s home advantage and recent 3-1 win over St. Louis City may tilt the balance slightly. St. Louis’ reliable scoring from Navarro and Becher, and NYRB’s attacking threats Hall and Forsberg, make a 2-1 scoreline probable, aligning with over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has the recent form of both teams influenced their expected performance in this match?

New York Red Bulls have a poor recent form (LDLDL) with 1.33 goals scored and 2 conceded per game, reflecting defensive issues (xG against 2.01). St. Louis City show steadier form (DWDWD), scoring 1.58 and conceding 1.38 with an xG against of 1.06, suggesting better defensive organization. This contrast indicates St. Louis may be more resilient, but NYRB’s home advantage and attacking potential remain threats.

What do the xG statistics reveal about the attacking and defensive capabilities of both teams?

NYRB have an xG for of 1.7 and against of 2.01, suggesting they create decent chances but concede high-quality opportunities. St. Louis City’s xG for is 1.52 and against 1.06, indicating a more balanced approach with better defensive solidity. These numbers suggest NYRB might be vulnerable defensively, while St. Louis City are efficient at limiting opponent chances.

Which key attackers are likely to influence the match based on their per-90 stats?

For NYRB, Julian Hall (1.73 shots/90, 1.01 on target) and Emil Forsberg (1.24 shots/90, 0.74 on target) are main threats. St. Louis City’s Rafael Navarro stands out with 2.19 shots/90 and 1.34 on target, supported by Simon Becher (2.18 shots/90). Navarro’s superior shot volume and accuracy make him the primary offensive threat likely to impact the scoreline.

How do defensive frailties of both teams impact the likelihood of BTTS?

NYRB concede 2 goals per game this season with an xG against of 2.01, showing defensive vulnerability. St. Louis City concede 1.38 goals with xG against 1.06, better but still leaky. Both teams have high BTTS percentages (67% NYRB, 71% St. Louis), reflecting their tendency to both score and concede, increasing the probability of BTTS in this fixture.

Why is the Over/Under 2.5 goals market likely to favor Over in this match?

NYRB have an O2.5 rate of 58% and St. Louis City 50% this season, with both teams averaging over 1.3 goals per game and conceding 1.38 to 2.0 goals. The recent 3-1 and 2-2 scorelines in head-to-head clashes also support a goal-rich game. Defensive frailties and attacking key players further increase the chances of exceeding 2.5 total goals.

How do head-to-head results provide insight into the expected match outcome?

Recent H2H show a 3-1 home win for NYRB in January 2026, a 1-0 away win for St. Louis City in 2025, and a 2-2 draw in 2024. This suggests a competitive rivalry with goals likely. The 3-1 result indicates NYRB’s ability to score multiple goals at home against this opponent, supporting a narrow home win prediction with multiple goals scored.

Is there a betting value angle in this match considering the stats and form?

Given NYRB’s home advantage, recent 3-1 H2H win, and St. Louis’ defensive solidity but lower goal volume, a 2-1 home win with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals offers value. BTTS at 67%-71% and Over 2.5 at 50%-58% suggest bookmakers may undervalue the likelihood of goals despite defensive concerns, presenting an opportunity for a goal-rich outcome.