New England VS Philadelphia Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Nov 20, 2026)

New England RevolutionNew England

21:00

Fri, Nov 20 2026

Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia

MLS·Gillette Stadium

Comparison of Expert and AI picks

Predicto AI

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both teams have a strong BTTS percentage of 65%, indicating a high likelihood that both will score in this matchup. Additionally, the head-to-head record shows a clear trend, with Philadelphia Union winning 6 out of the 9 previous matches and consistently finding the net, reinforcing the prediction that both teams will score. As both teams have shown offensive capabilities, this makes the BTTS bet a solid choice.

Expert Pick

Over 2.5 goals

View Reasoning

The New England Revolution and Philadelphia Union both have high scoring averages, with Philadelphia averaging 2.5 goals per game (47GF in 20 matches) and New England contributing significantly as well (33GF in 20 matches). Given that 75% of New England's matches have seen over 2.5 goals and 70% of Philadelphia's matches have followed suit, this trend strongly supports a bet on Over 2.5 goals. The head-to-head history also indicates a pattern of high-scoring games, with 23 goals in their last 9 encounters.

Split call — see both takes above

Place bet

Key Stats

New England Revolutionper gamePhiladelphia Union

1.4

xG for

1.8

1.4

xG against

1.4

51.2

Possession %

46.6

11.7

Shots

16.4

New England Revolution — last 5

LLWWW

Philadelphia Union — last 5

WLDLD

Team Stats

New England Revolutionper gamePhiladelphia Union

1.4

xG for

1.8

1.4

xG against

1.4

51.2

Possession %

46.6

11.7

Shots

16.4

4.7

Shots on tgt

5.4

4.9

Corners

6.1

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

New England Revolution — last 5

LLWWW

Philadelphia Union — last 5

WLDLD

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
New England Revolution	9-9-16	1.3	1.5	10
Philadelphia Union	22-6-9	1.7	1	15

New England performance

Total Matches

Form

10W3D7L

Avg Scored

1.65

per match

Avg Conceded

1.45

per match

Goals Scored33

Goals Conceded29

Clean Sheets3 (15%)

BTTS65%

Over 2.575%

Over 3.530%

Philadelphia performance

Total Matches

Form

12W4D4L

Avg Scored

2.35

per match

Avg Conceded

1.25

per match

Goals Scored47

Goals Conceded25

Clean Sheets4 (20%)

BTTS65%

Over 2.570%

Over 3.560%

Expected Match Outcome

New England

1-2

(1.4 - 1.9 xG)

Philadelphia

New England

Scores1.65/g

Concedes1.45/g

Philadelphia

Scores2.35/g

Concedes1.25/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

65%

Over 2.5

73%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 2.5

28%

Head-to-Head & Form

New England Revolution wins

Draws

Philadelphia Union wins

Recent meetings

24 Oct 2026Philadelphia Union

1–2

New England Revolution

09 May 2026New England Revolution

2–1

Philadelphia Union

20 Sept 2025Philadelphia Union

1–0

New England Revolution

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	34	23	8	3	+46	77
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	34	19	7	8	+40	64
2	FC Dallas	34	16	10	8	+11	58
2	Inter Miami	34	16	12	6	+21	60
3	St. Louis City	34	15	9	10	+11	54
3	New England Revolution	34	18	4	12	+8	58
4	San Jose Earthquakes	34	14	10	10	+6	52
4	Chicago Fire	34	16	7	11	+10	55
5	Houston Dynamo	34	14	9	11	0	51
5	Charlotte	34	15	9	10	+15	54
6	Philadelphia Union	34	14	8	12	+14	50
6	Los Angeles FC	34	12	11	11	+12	47
7	Portland Timbers	34	13	7	14	+1	46
7	Columbus Crew	34	14	5	15	+7	47
8	Orlando City SC	34	13	7	14	-15	46
8	Seattle Sounders	34	12	10	12	-2	46
9	Real Salt Lake	34	13	6	15	+1	45
9	FC Cincinnati	34	12	10	12	-8	46
10	New York Red Bulls	34	12	6	16	-14	42
10	Minnesota United FC	34	11	11	12	-2	44
11	Los Angeles Galaxy	34	11	11	12	-7	44
11	New York City FC	34	10	12	12	+4	42
12	Colorado Rapids	34	12	7	15	-3	43
12	Toronto FC	34	9	12	13	-15	39
13	Atlanta United FC	34	9	6	19	-17	33
13	San Diego	34	9	11	14	-6	38
14	DC United	34	7	12	15	-22	33
14	Austin	34	8	10	16	-23	34
15	CF Montreal	34	6	8	20	-32	26
15	Sporting Kansas City	34	7	5	22	-41	26

Overview

New England Revolution (3rd, 58pts) host Philadelphia Union (6th, 50pts) in an MLS clash with playoff implications. Last season, Philadelphia outperformed New England with 22W-6D-9L versus 9W-9D-16L, scoring 1.7 vs 1.3 goals per game and conceding only 1.0 compared to New England's 1.5. This historical edge, combined with Philadelphia's higher points tally, sets a competitive context.

Form & xG

New England's recent form is LLWWW with a 1.44 xG for and 1.36 against per game, slightly above last season's 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded. Philadelphia show steadier form WLDLD, with a stronger 1.78 xG for and 1.35 against, also an improvement on last season's 1.7/1.0. The small sample size this season suggests reliance on last season's baseline for predictive accuracy.

Team News & Key Players

New England's Carles Gil (12G, 7A, 1.44 shots/90) and D. Turgeman (12G, 7A, 2 shots/90) are pivotal attackers, while Philadelphia's M. Iloski (19G, 2A, 3.59 shots/90) and Bruno Damiani (13G, 3A, 2.19 shots/90) lead their front line. Defensive discipline is crucial: Philadelphia's Andre Blake has 15 clean sheets last season; New England only 10, indicating Philadelphia's defensive robustness.

Stats & Betting Angles

Philadelphia averages more shots (16.4 vs 11.7), corners (6.1 vs 4.9), and fouls (15.2 vs 9.4) per game, reflecting a more aggressive style. Both teams have BTTS rates above 60% (New England 61%, Philadelphia 68%) and over 2.5 goals around 70%, suggesting an open, goal-rich encounter. Last head-to-heads show tight, often 2-1 or 1-2 scorelines favoring New England recently.

Verdict

Expect a high-scoring, closely contested match with both teams scoring. Given Philadelphia's superior xG and shooting volume but New England's recent home wins against them, a narrow 2-1 victory for New England is likely. BTTS and Over 2.5 goals are solid bets, reflecting attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has the recent form of both teams influenced this match prediction?

New England's recent form of LLWWW (2 wins in last 5) contrasts with Philadelphia's WLDLD (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Despite New England's weaker start, their last two wins show improving momentum, while Philadelphia's inconsistent results suggest vulnerability. This supports a narrow New England win, aligning with their resurgence and home advantage.

What do xG statistics reveal about the attacking strengths of the teams?

Philadelphia's xG of 1.78 per game surpasses New England's 1.44, indicating more efficient chances created. Last season, Philadelphia averaged 1.7 goals per game versus New England's 1.3, consistent with current xG trends. This suggests Philadelphia's attack, led by Iloski (3.59 shots/90), is more prolific and poses a greater threat.

Which key players will most influence the outcome of this match?

Carles Gil (New England, 12G, 7A, 1.44 shots/90) and D. Turgeman (12G, 7A, 2 shots/90) drive their attack, while Philadelphia rely on M. Iloski (19G, 2A, 3.59 shots/90) and Bruno Damiani (13G, 3A, 2.19 shots/90). Defensive stalwart Andre Blake's 15 clean sheets last season underpin Philadelphia's solidity, contrasting New England's 10.

How do the defensive records of both teams compare?

Philadelphia conceded 1.0 goals per game last season with 15 clean sheets, showing defensive strength. New England allowed 1.5 goals per game and had 10 clean sheets, indicating more vulnerability. This defensive disparity suggests Philadelphia might have the edge in limiting goals, though New England's recent home wins show resilience.

Why is BTTS (both teams to score) a strong bet for this match?

Both teams have BTTS rates over 60% this season (New England 61%, Philadelphia 68%) and last season's goal averages (1.3/1.5 and 1.7/1.0) suggest offensive capability and defensive gaps. Recent H2H matches often ended 2-1 or 1-2, reinforcing expectation of goals from both sides.

What does the over/under 2.5 goals data suggest about the expected match tempo?

Both teams show over 2.5 goals percentages near 70% this season (New England 70%, Philadelphia 68%) and last season's averages also support high-scoring games. Combined with aggressive shot and corner stats (Philadelphia 16.4 shots, 6.1 corners; New England 11.7 shots, 4.9 corners), an open, attacking tempo is expected.

How do recent head-to-head results shape expectations for this fixture?

Recent H2H matches favor New England narrowly: 2-1 wins in Oct and May 2026, while Philadelphia won 1-0 and 2-0 previously. The frequent 2-1 and 1-2 scorelines indicate a trend for close, competitive matches with goals from both sides, supporting a tight score prediction.

What betting value exists given the statistical profile of this match?

The combination of New England's recent home wins, Philadelphia's superior xG and shooting, and high BTTS and over 2.5 rates creates value in backing a close 2-1 New England win with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals. The odds on such a specific scoreline with BTTS and Over 2.5 often offer good returns given the statistical likelihood.