New England VS Chicago Fire Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Oct 17, 2026)

New England RevolutionNew England

1 - 0

HT: 1-0

Chicago Fire FCChicago Fire

MLS·Gillette Stadium

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

@1.44

View Reasoning

Both teams have shown a high likelihood of scoring, with BTTS percentages of 65% for New England Revolution and 80% for Chicago Fire FC. The teams’ recent forms and their head-to-head record, which features multiple high-scoring matches, further support the expectation that both teams will find the back of the net. Therefore, the Both Teams to Score market looks promising for this match.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Over 2.5 goals

@1.51

View Reasoning

The New England Revolution and Chicago Fire FC both have strong attacking records, averaging over 2.5 goals in 70% and 75% of their matches, respectively. Additionally, their head-to-head encounters have produced a total of 31 goals in the last 10 matches, indicating a high-scoring trend. Given these factors, betting on Over 2.5 goals is a reasonable prediction.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

New England Revolutionper gameChicago Fire

1.5

xG for

1.8

1.3

xG against

1.3

50.8

Possession %

51.7

12.1

Shots

New England Revolution — last 5

LWWWW

Chicago Fire — last 5

WLLDD

Team Stats

New England Revolutionper gameChicago Fire

1.5

xG for

1.8

1.3

xG against

1.3

50.8

Possession %

51.7

12.1

Shots

4.7

Shots on tgt

5.2

4.8

Corners

4.5

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

New England Revolution — last 5

LWWWW

Chicago Fire — last 5

WLLDD

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
New England Revolution	9-9-16	1.3	1.5	10
Chicago Fire	16-8-13	2	1.8	6

New England performance

Total Matches

Form

10W3D7L

Avg Scored

1.55

per match

Avg Conceded

1.45

per match

Goals Scored31

Goals Conceded29

Clean Sheets3 (15%)

BTTS60%

Over 2.575%

Over 3.525%

Chicago Fire performance

Total Matches

Form

10W4D6L

Avg Scored

1.75

per match

Avg Conceded

1.60

per match

Goals Scored35

Goals Conceded32

Clean Sheets2 (10%)

BTTS85%

Over 2.580%

Over 3.535%

Expected Match Outcome

New England

2-2

(1.6 - 1.6 xG)

Chicago Fire

New England

Scores1.55/g

Concedes1.45/g

Chicago Fire

Scores1.75/g

Concedes1.60/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

73%

Over 2.5

78%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 2.5

23%

Head-to-Head & Form

New England Revolution wins

Draws

Chicago Fire wins

Recent meetings

13 Sept 2026Chicago Fire

1–2

New England Revolution

18 Oct 2025New England Revolution

2–2

Chicago Fire

07 Sept 2025Chicago Fire

3–2

New England Revolution

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	30	20	7	3	+41	67
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	+32	55
2	Inter Miami	30	15	10	5	+22	55
2	St. Louis City	30	14	9	7	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	14	9	7	+8	51
3	New England Revolution	30	16	4	10	+8	52
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	9	8	+10	48
4	Chicago Fire	30	14	6	10	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	13	8	9	+8	47
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	8	9	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	+15	46
6	Philadelphia Union	30	13	7	10	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	12	5	13	-12	41
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	9	10	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	10	11	-9	40
8	New York Red Bulls	30	10	6	14	-17	36
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	6	13	0	39
9	FC Cincinnati	29	9	9	11	-10	36
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	6	14	-3	36
10	Toronto FC	30	8	12	10	-9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	10	5	15	-1	35
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	7	14	-5	34
12	New York City FC	30	8	10	12	+2	34
12	San Diego	30	8	10	12	-3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	8	10	12	-8	34
13	DC United	29	7	12	10	-14	33
14	Austin	30	7	10	13	-18	31
14	Atlanta United FC	30	8	6	16	-14	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	4	20	-39	22
15	CF Montreal	30	6	7	17	-24	25

Overview

New England Revolution currently sit 2nd in the standings with 46 points, while Chicago Fire are 5th with 42 points. Despite New England's slightly better position, Chicago's last full season baseline showed stronger offensive output with 2.0 goals per game compared to New England's 1.3. This match is critical for both teams in the playoff race, with New England's recent form strong (LWWWW) and Chicago more inconsistent (WLLDD).

Form & xG

This season, New England averages 1.69 goals scored and concedes 1.31, with an xG of 1.54 for and 1.31 against, indicating some clinical finishing above expected. Chicago Fire have a similar goals scored rate (1.77) and concede slightly more (1.46) with an xG of 1.77 for and 1.3 against. Both teams have high BTTS rates this season—62% for New England and 69% for Chicago—suggesting goals at both ends are likely.

Team News & Key Players

New England's leading contributors include Carles Gil (11 goals, 4 assists, 7.62 rating) averaging 1.58 shots and 2.85 key passes per 90. D. Turgeman also provides attacking threat with 7 goals and 7 assists. Chicago's key man is P. Zinckernagel, with 5 goals and 8 assists, 2.36 shots and key passes per 90. M. Haile-Selassie adds 8 goals and 4 assists, showing strong offensive output from a defensive position.

Stats & Betting Angles

Both teams average around 4.5 corners per game and commit a high number of fouls (New England 9.8, Chicago 12.5), with Chicago receiving more yellow cards (2.19 vs 1.84). BTTS and Over 2.5 goals have hit in 62-73% of their games this season, supported by last season’s baseline of 1.3-1.5 goals conceded per game each. The recent H2H is tight but with multiple scorelines over 2.5 goals, including a 2-2 and 3-2 in the past year.

Verdict

Expect a competitive fixture with goals at both ends given both teams’ attacking quality and defensive vulnerabilities. The presence of prolific attackers like Gil and Zinckernagel combined with high BTTS and Over 2.5 rates this season and last season's baseline supports a 2-1 scoreline favoring New England at home. The small sample size this season urges caution, but the last season baseline and H2H trends reinforce this outlook.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does recent form influence the expected outcome?

New England's recent form is strong with 4 wins in their last 5 games (LWWWW), scoring 1.69 goals per game this season with an xG of 1.54, indicating good finishing. Chicago's form is less consistent (WLLDD), scoring slightly more (1.77 goals, xG 1.77) but conceding more (1.46). This suggests New England's momentum and defensive solidity (1.31 conceded) could give them the edge.

What do the xG numbers reveal about each team's attacking and defensive quality?

New England's xG this season is 1.54 for and 1.31 against, showing their attack slightly outperforms chances created, while their defense aligns with goals conceded. Chicago has a higher xG for at 1.77 but concedes 1.3 xG per game, indicating a more potent but less stable defense. Last season, Chicago averaged 2.0 goals scored, New England 1.3, highlighting Chicago's stronger baseline attack.

Which key attackers are likely to influence this match and how do their per-90 stats support this?

Carles Gil (New England) averages 1.58 shots and 2.85 key passes per 90 with 11 goals and 4 assists this season, making him a central creative force. Chicago's P. Zinckernagel has 2.36 shots and key passes per 90 with 5 goals and 8 assists, indicating his dual threat. Both players’ involvement suggests a high chance of goals from midfield creativity.

How do defensive vulnerabilities impact the likelihood of both teams scoring?

New England concedes 1.31 goals per game with a 19% clean sheet rate, while Chicago concedes 1.46 with a 27% clean sheet rate. Both have conceded over 1.3 goals on average this season and last, supporting the high BTTS percentages (62% and 69%). Defensive frailty combined with strong attacking players raises confidence in both teams scoring.

Why is BTTS a strong betting angle for this fixture?

BTTS has occurred in 62% of New England's and 69% of Chicago's games this season. Both teams have conceded over 1.3 goals per game on average and possess creative midfielders like Gil and Zinckernagel who produce chances at rates above 2 key passes per 90. Their H2H also features multiple high-scoring draws and wins, reinforcing BTTS as a high-probability bet.

What supports the over 2.5 goals prediction in this match?

Over 2.5 goals occurred in 69% of New England's and 73% of Chicago's games this season. Their combined goals per game (3.46) and xG (3.31) support a match with multiple goals. H2H history shows several matches with 3+ goals, including 3-2 and 2-2 scorelines. Both teams' attacking per-90 stats and defensive concessions further justify the over 2.5 prediction.

How does the recent head-to-head history shape expectations for this game?

The last ten meetings have been tight but high-scoring affairs, including 2-2 draws (2025-10-18, 2023-09-24) and a 3-2 win for Chicago (2025-09-07). New England won the most recent encounter 2-1 (2026-09-13). This pattern of close, goal-filled matches supports a competitive game with likely goals on both sides.

Where lies the best betting value in this fixture?

Given the strong BTTS (62-69%) and Over 2.5 (69-73%) rates combined with New England's slight home advantage and recent form, betting on a 2-1 home win with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals offers value. Chicago's attacking baseline and high xG suggest they will score, but New England's defensive improvement this season supports a narrow home win.