NEC VS Levski Sofia Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Oct 15, 2026)

NECNEC

1 - 1

HT: 0-1

PFK Levski SofiaLevski Sofia

UEFA Europa League·Goffertstadion

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Both Teams to Score

@1.70

View Reasoning

NEC has a 70% rate for both teams to score, indicating a strong likelihood that they will find the back of the net, especially given their goal-scoring average. Meanwhile, PFK Levski Sofia has a robust defense but has still conceded 16 goals, suggesting that they are not invulnerable. With both teams showing an inclination to score, the bet on both teams to score is quite appealing.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Over 2.5 goals

@1.85

View Reasoning

Given NEC's record of 33 goals scored and 37 conceded across 20 matches, they have an average of 1.65 goals scored per game, while PFK Levski Sofia boasts 38 goals and only 16 conceded, averaging 2.0 goals scored per game. With an impressive 80% rate for over 2.5 goals in NEC's matches, this suggests high-scoring encounters are likely. Therefore, betting on over 2.5 goals is a strong choice here.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

NEC Nijmegenper gameLevski Sofia

xG for

1.6

xG against

55.9

Possession %

14.1

Shots

12.2

NEC Nijmegen — last 5

DLLDL

Levski Sofia — last 5

LLDWW

Team Stats

NEC Nijmegenper gameLevski Sofia

xG for

1.6

xG against

55.9

Possession %

14.1

Shots

12.2

Shots on tgt

2.4

4.3

Corners

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

NEC Nijmegen — last 5

DLLDL

Levski Sofia — last 5

LLDWW

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
NEC Nijmegen	0-0-0	0	0	0
Levski Sofia	1-2-1	0.5	0.5	2

NEC performance

Total Matches

Form

5W5D10L

Avg Scored

1.60

per match

Avg Conceded

1.85

per match

Goals Scored32

Goals Conceded37

Clean Sheets2 (10%)

BTTS70%

Over 2.575%

Over 3.550%

Levski Sofia performance

Total Matches

Form

13W4D3L

Avg Scored

1.75

per match

Avg Conceded

0.80

per match

Goals Scored35

Goals Conceded16

Clean Sheets11 (55%)

BTTS35%

Over 2.550%

Over 3.530%

Expected Match Outcome

NEC

1-2

(1.2 - 1.8 xG)

Levski Sofia

NEC

Scores1.60/g

Concedes1.85/g

Levski Sofia

Scores1.75/g

Concedes0.80/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

53%

Over 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 2.5

38%

Head-to-Head & Form

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Bayer Leverkusen	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Bournemouth	3	3	0	0	+7	9
4	Ferencvarosi TC	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Olympiakos Piraeus	3	3	0	0	+3	9
6	Union St. Gilloise	3	2	1	0	+7	7
7	Juventus	3	2	1	0	+6	7
8	Beşiktaş	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Sunderland	3	2	1	0	+2	7
10	AZ Alkmaar	3	2	0	1	+4	6
11	Omonia Nicosia	3	2	0	1	+1	6
12	Lyon	3	2	0	1	-1	6
13	Rennes	3	1	2	0	+1	5
14	Real Sociedad	3	1	1	1	+5	4
15	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+3	4
16	Sparta Praha	3	1	1	1	+2	4
17	Levski Sofia	3	1	1	1	0	4
18	Dinamo Zagreb	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Sturm Graz	3	1	1	1	-2	4
20	NEC Nijmegen	3	1	1	1	-3	4
21	Red Bull Salzburg	3	1	1	1	-3	4
22	Anderlecht	3	1	0	2	+1	3
23	1899 Hoffenheim	3	1	0	2	0	3
24	AC Milan	3	1	0	2	-1	3
25	Celta Vigo	3	1	0	2	-1	3
26	OFI	3	1	0	2	-1	3
27	Jagiellonia	3	1	0	2	-2	3
28	Torreense	3	1	0	2	-3	3
29	Celje	3	0	1	2	-5	1
30	Hapoel Beer Sheva	3	0	1	2	-5	1
31	Lillestrom	3	0	1	2	-7	1
32	Lech Poznan	3	0	1	2	-8	1
33	Plzen	3	0	0	3	-5	0
34	Marseille	3	0	0	3	-5	0
35	Celtic	3	0	0	3	-6	0
36	Ararat-Armenia	3	0	0	3	-9	0

Overview

NEC Nijmegen hosts Levski Sofia in a cup tie where both teams have yet to earn points this season in this competition. NEC ranks #36 and Levski #27 in standings. NEC shows a higher possession rate at 55.9% and averages 1.18 goals per game versus Levski's 1.0. Levski's defensive solidity is highlighted by a 60% clean sheet rate this season, contrasting NEC's low 9%. No previous head-to-head data exist for direct comparison.

Form & xG

NEC's recent form is mixed (DLLDL) with an xG of 1.96 per game, suggesting they create decent chances but concede heavily (1.56 xG against). Levski's form is improving (LLDWW) with a lower xG profile this season, but limited data (5 games) means reliance on last season's baseline is necessary. Last season, Levski averaged 0.5 goals and 0.5 conceded per game over 4 matches, showing defensive steadiness. NEC's current xG and possession advantage may be tempered by their defensive frailty.

Team news & key players

NEC's attacking threat centers on Tjaronn Chery, averaging 2.71 shots and 2.46 key passes per 90 minutes with 3 goals and 2 assists this season. Dušan Tadić provides creativity with 2 assists but low shot volume. Defensively, Noé Lebreton contributes 2.52 tackles per 90 with a moderate discipline record (2 yellow cards). Levski's main scorer is Reinaldo, netting 3 goals in 6 appearances, averaging 1.22 shots per 90. However, Levski's overall player ratings are low, reflecting possible team struggles.

Stats & betting angles

NEC's matches have a high over 2.5 rate (82%) and 64% BTTS this season, contrasting with Levski's low BTTS (0%) and under 2.5 frequency (60%). NEC concedes over 2 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerability. Levski's 60% clean sheet rate and 40% O2.5 suggest more conservative games. NEC averages 14.1 shots (4 on target) and 4.3 corners per game versus Levski's 12.2 shots (2.4 on target) and 4 corners, implying NEC's slight attacking edge.

Verdict

Given NEC's superior possession, xG, and attacking stats but defensive frailty, and Levski's solid defensive baseline but low scoring, a competitive match with goals from both sides is likely. NEC's higher shot volume and key players like Chery should convert chances, while Levski's Reinaldo provides a goal threat. The prediction leans towards a 2-1 NEC win, aligning with an over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes outcome.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does recent form influence the expected outcome?

NEC's recent form is DLLDL with 1.18 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game, showing defensive weaknesses. Levski's form improved to LLDWW with 1 goal scored and 1 conceded per game but only 5 games so far. The contrasting defensive records suggest NEC may concede again despite home advantage, favoring a close match with goals.

What does the xG profile tell us about the attacking and defensive strengths?

NEC's xG per game is 1.96 for and 1.56 against, indicating they create chances but concede frequently. Levski's xG data is missing this season, but last season they averaged 0.5 goals and 0.5 conceded per game, showing defensive solidity but limited attack, which may struggle against NEC's higher chance creation.

Which key attackers are likely to influence the match?

NEC's Tjaronn Chery leads with 3 goals, 2 assists, 2.71 shots and 2.46 key passes per 90 minutes, marking him as the main threat. Levski's Reinaldo has 3 goals in 6 games with 1.22 shots per 90, their top scorer. These two players will likely be pivotal in goal-scoring opportunities.

How do defensive frailties impact the potential scoreline?

NEC concedes 2.18 goals per game and only 9% clean sheets, showing defensive weakness. Levski has a 60% clean sheet rate and concedes only 1 goal per game this season. NEC's frailty suggests Levski can score despite fewer chances, while NEC's attack may exploit Levski's occasional lapses, supporting a 2-1 result.

Why is BTTS (both teams to score) likely or unlikely here?

NEC's BTTS rate is 64%, indicating they often both score and concede. Levski's BTTS is 0%, suggesting more shutouts but possibly low scoring. Given NEC's defensive issues and Levski's attacking threat from Reinaldo, BTTS yes is probable as NEC likely concedes and scores.

What supports an over or under 2.5 goals bet?

NEC's matches go over 2.5 goals 82% of the time, while Levski's only 40%. NEC's 2.18 goals conceded per game and Levski's 60% clean sheets create a contrast. The attacking stats favor over 2.5 goals, especially with NEC's increased shots and chances, supporting an over 2.5 prediction.

Are there any relevant head-to-head trends?

No previous head-to-head meetings exist between NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia, so no direct historical data informs this prediction. This increases reliance on current form, season stats, and last season's baseline for both teams.

Is there betting value in this prediction?

Given NEC's strong over 2.5 (82%) and BTTS (64%) stats versus Levski's defensive solidity but low scoring, betting on a 2-1 NEC win with over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes offers value. Levski's low BTTS (0%) and under 2.5 (60%) stats make them less likely to keep a clean sheet away.