Lille VS Le Havre Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Oct 10, 2026)

Lille OSCLille

1 - 0

HT: 1-0

Le Havre ACLe Havre

Ligue 1·Stade Pierre-Mauroy

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Lille OSC to win

@1.53

View Reasoning

Lille OSC is favored to win based on their strong performance with a win rate of 50% (10 wins out of 20 matches) compared to Le Havre's 15% (3 wins out of 20 matches). Moreover, Lille has a solid goal difference of +14, and they have been more consistent at home, while Le Havre struggles with a CS rate of only 20%. This, combined with Lille's historical dominance in their head-to-head matches (5 wins out of 7), makes them the likely winners.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

@1.87

View Reasoning

Both teams are likely to score, given Le Havre's high BTTS percentage of 65%. Lille OSC has shown a decent scoring capability with 35 goals in 20 matches, while Le Havre has also managed to find the net 23 times. The historical head-to-head also supports this prediction, with 19 total goals scored in their last 7 encounters, indicating a trend of both teams finding the back of the net.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Lilleper gameLe Havre

1.4

xG for

1.1

1.3

xG against

1.8

47.8

Possession %

48.4

12.8

Shots

15.6

Lille — last 5

LWLWD

Le Havre — last 5

LDLDL

Team Stats

Lilleper gameLe Havre

1.4

xG for

1.1

1.3

xG against

1.8

47.8

Possession %

48.4

12.8

Shots

15.6

6.4

Shots on tgt

2.8

Corners

5.6

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Lille — last 5

LWLWD

Le Havre — last 5

LDLDL

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Lille	18-7-9	1.5	1.1	13
Le Havre	7-14-13	0.9	1.3	8

Lille performance

Total Matches

Form

11W5D4L

Avg Scored

1.85

per match

Avg Conceded

1.00

per match

Goals Scored37

Goals Conceded20

Clean Sheets9 (45%)

BTTS50%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.525%

Le Havre performance

Total Matches

Form

4W8D8L

Avg Scored

1.45

per match

Avg Conceded

1.40

per match

Goals Scored29

Goals Conceded28

Clean Sheets3 (15%)

BTTS70%

Over 2.540%

Over 3.525%

Expected Match Outcome

Lille

2-1

(1.6 - 1.2 xG)

Le Havre

Lille

Scores1.85/g

Concedes1.00/g

Le Havre

Scores1.45/g

Concedes1.40/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

60%

Over 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 2.5

53%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Lille wins

Draws

Le Havre wins

Recent meetings

03 May 2026Lille

1–1

Le Havre

30 Nov 2025Le Havre

0–1

Lille

08 Feb 2025Lille

1–2

Le Havre

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	8	5	2	1	+7	17
2	Rennes	8	5	1	2	+4	16
3	Lille	8	4	3	1	+5	15
4	Monaco	8	4	3	1	+4	15
5	Lyon	8	4	2	2	+6	14
6	Paris FC	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Lens	8	4	1	3	+4	13
8	Marseille	8	4	0	4	+5	12
9	Lorient	8	3	3	2	+1	12
10	Nice	8	3	2	3	-2	11
11	Toulouse	8	2	4	2	+1	10
12	Auxerre	8	3	1	4	-6	10
13	Stade Brestois 29	8	2	3	3	+2	9
14	Angers	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Le Mans	8	1	4	3	-5	7
16	Strasbourg	8	2	1	5	-6	7
17	Estac Troyes	8	1	2	5	-11	5
18	Le Havre	8	0	2	6	-7	2

Overview

Lille, currently 4th with 10 points, hosts struggling Le Havre, 18th with 2 points after 5 games in this competition. Last season, Lille finished 7th with 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game, while Le Havre ended 18th with 0.9 goals for and 1.3 against. Lille's home strength and higher league position suggest a clear advantage despite a mixed start this season.

Form & xG

Lille's recent form is LWLWD with 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, supported by xG of 1.39 for and 1.27 against, indicating some defensive vulnerabilities. Le Havre's form is weaker (LDLDL), scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.4 per game, with an xG of 1.1 for and 1.84 against, reflecting defensive frailty and low offensive output.

Team news & key players

Lille's Tiago Santos leads with 1.8 shots and 1.2 on target per 90, plus 2 goals this season, showing attacking threat. Midfielder Bentaleb creates 1.51 key passes per 90. Le Havre's main threat is M. Samatta with 3.32 shots and 1.87 on target per 90 and 2 goals, but his team concedes heavily, with defenders like Ayumu Seko committing 1.4 fouls per 90 and receiving 1 yellow card.

Stats & betting angles

Lille's clean sheet rate last season was 38% (13/34), and they have kept 60% CS this season in a small sample. Le Havre's CS rate was 24% last season, only 20% now. BTTS occurred in 40% of Lille’s games and 60% of Le Havre’s, suggesting goals at both ends. Over 2.5 goals is 40% for both, but recent H2H includes multiple 2-1 and 3-0 results, favoring a higher-scoring game.

Verdict

Lille's superior form, better xG profile, and historical dominance in head-to-head (e.g., 3-0 and 3-2 wins) indicate they will likely win. Le Havre's defensive weaknesses and lower scoring average suggest they will concede but may score given their 60% BTTS rate. Expect a competitive match with at least three goals and both teams finding the net.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has Lille's recent form impacted their goal scoring and conceding?

Lille's recent form (LWLWD) shows they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, slightly above last season's 1.5/1.1 baseline. Their xG of 1.39 for and 1.27 against indicates the defense concedes chances close to actual goals allowed. This suggests Lille's attack remains effective, while their defense is slightly more vulnerable than last season.

What does the xG profile say about Le Havre's offensive and defensive capabilities?

Le Havre's xG of 1.1 for and 1.84 against per game highlights a struggling offense and leaky defense. They score only 0.8 goals per game, below their xG, indicating finishing issues. Conceding 1.4 goals vs. 1.84 xG against suggests poor defensive performance, consistent with their 60% BTTS rate and low clean sheet percentage (20%) this season.

Who are the key attackers likely to influence the match and their per-90 stats?

Lille’s Tiago Santos is key with 1.8 shots and 1.2 on target per 90, plus 2 goals this season, indicating direct scoring threat. Le Havre’s M. Samatta stands out with 3.32 shots and 1.87 on target per 90, also 2 goals, but his team’s defensive frailty may limit his impact.

How does defensive frailty affect the expected match outcome?

Le Havre concedes 1.4 goals per game with an xG against of 1.84, showing defensive problems. Lille’s defense concedes 0.8 goals with an xG against of 1.27. Lille’s 60% clean sheet rate last season vs. Le Havre’s 24% suggests Lille will likely break down Le Havre’s defense, while Le Havre’s low clean sheet rate (20%) means they may concede multiple times.

What is the rationale behind the BTTS prediction for this match?

BTTS stands at 40% for Lille and 60% for Le Havre, reflecting Lille's occasional defensive lapses and Le Havre's ability to score despite poor form. Recent H2H results include multiple games with both teams scoring (e.g., 2-1, 3-2). Le Havre's average conceded 1.4 goals and Lille's 0.8 conceded per game suggest both sides have vulnerabilities leading to goals.

Why is under or over 2.5 goals favored based on stats and history?

Both teams have 40% over 2.5 goals this season, but Lille’s last season average was 2.6 goals per game combined (1.5 scored + 1.1 conceded), and Le Havre’s was 2.2. Recent H2H matches include several 3+ goal results like 3-2 and 3-0, suggesting over 2.5 goals is plausible despite small current-sample data.

How does the recent head-to-head history influence the match expectations?

Recent H2H shows Lille dominance with 3-0 and 3-2 wins and a 1-1 draw. Le Havre managed a 2-1 win in early 2025, but Lille's ability to score multiple goals and keep clean sheets (3-0, 3-0 wins) suggests they can control the match. This history supports a Lille win with both teams scoring.

Is there betting value in this match and where?

Considering Lille’s stronger baseline and home advantage, backing them to win at around 1.85-2.0 odds offers value. BTTS 'Yes' is supported by 40%/60% rates and recent H2H. Over 2.5 goals is riskier but justified by last season's combined goal averages and H2H scores, potentially offering value in combo bets.