Gil Vicente VS Marítimo Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 19, 2026)

Gil Vicente FCGil Vicente

1 - 1

HT: 1-0

CS MarítimoMarítimo

Liga Portugal

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Both Teams to Score

@2.00

View Reasoning

Both teams have shown a tendency to score, with a BTTS percentage of 50% for Gil Vicente FC and 45% for CS Marítimo. Additionally, in their last 10 meetings, both teams have consistently found the net, contributing to a total of 23 goals. Given these trends, it is reasonable to expect both teams to score in this matchup.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

CS Marítimo to win

@4.12

View Reasoning

CS Marítimo has a better overall win rate of 47% compared to Gil Vicente FC's 29%. In their head-to-head matches, CS Marítimo has won 3 out of the last 10 encounters, showing they can compete effectively against Gil Vicente FC. With Marítimo's slightly stronger clean sheet percentage at 35%, they have a good chance to capitalize on Gil Vicente FC's defensive vulnerabilities.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

GIL Vicenteper gameMaritimo

1.7

xG for

1.1

0.5

xG against

1.1

Possession %

42.6

15.3

Shots

10.8

GIL Vicente — last 5

LDWW

Maritimo — last 5

LLDWW

Team Stats

GIL Vicenteper gameMaritimo

1.7

xG for

1.1

0.5

xG against

1.1

Possession %

42.6

15.3

Shots

10.8

4.3

Shots on tgt

3.4

4.5

Corners

2.6

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

GIL Vicente — last 5

LDWW

Maritimo — last 5

LLDWW

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
GIL Vicente	--	–	–
Maritimo	--	–	–

Gil Vicente performance

Total Matches

Form

5W7D8L

Avg Scored

1.10

per match

Avg Conceded

1.35

per match

Goals Scored22

Goals Conceded27

Clean Sheets6 (30%)

BTTS50%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.535%

Marítimo performance

Total Matches

Form

8W4D8L

Avg Scored

1.05

per match

Avg Conceded

1.30

per match

Goals Scored21

Goals Conceded26

Clean Sheets7 (35%)

BTTS45%

Over 2.545%

Over 3.525%

Expected Match Outcome

Gil Vicente

1-1

(1.2 - 1.2 xG)

Marítimo

Gil Vicente

Scores1.10/g

Concedes1.35/g

Marítimo

Scores1.05/g

Concedes1.30/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

48%

Over 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 2.5

50%

Head-to-Head & Form

GIL Vicente wins

Draws

Maritimo wins

Recent meetings

05 Mar 2023GIL Vicente

2–0

Maritimo

11 Sept 2022Maritimo

1–2

GIL Vicente

20 Mar 2022GIL Vicente

1–1

Maritimo

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	8	8	0	0	+16	24
2	Benfica	8	6	1	1	+17	19
3	Sporting CP	8	5	3	0	+11	18
4	Santa Clara	8	5	3	0	+8	18
5	Arouca	8	4	2	2	+4	14
6	GIL Vicente	8	4	2	2	+2	14
7	Academico Viseu	8	4	2	2	+1	14
8	Alverca	8	3	2	3	+1	11
9	SC Braga	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Estrela	8	2	4	2	-1	10
11	Maritimo	8	2	2	4	-5	8
12	Moreirense	8	2	2	4	-7	8
13	Famalicao	8	1	4	3	-1	7
14	Rio Ave	8	2	1	5	-9	7
15	Vitória SC	8	1	2	5	-5	5
16	Nacional	8	1	1	6	-9	4
17	Casa Pia	8	1	1	6	-14	4
18	Estoril	8	0	2	6	-8	2

Overview

Gil Vicente and Maritimo meet with both sides level on 7 points, positioned 7th and 9th respectively. Gil Vicente shows a solid defensive start, conceding only 0.25 goals per game and boasting a 75% clean sheet rate this season, while Maritimo has conceded 1.6 goals per game with a 20% clean sheet rate. Historically, Gil Vicente dominates recent head-to-heads, winning 6 of the last 10 meetings including a 2-0 win in March 2023.

Form & xG

Gil Vicente’s form is LDWW, with an xG of 1.7 scored and 0.48 conceded per game, indicating strong attacking efficiency and defensive solidity. Maritimo’s form is LLDWW, with a lower xG of 1.11 for and 1.13 against, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities and less attacking threat. Gil Vicente averages 56% possession and 15.3 shots per game versus Maritimo’s 42.6% possession and 10.8 shots, reinforcing Gil Vicente’s control and chance creation.

Team News & Key Players

Gil Vicente’s key contributors include Joelson Fernandes (1.89 shots/90, 0.63 OT/90, 1.58 key passes/90) and Gil Pinto Martins (2.27 shots/90, 0.65 OT/90). Maritimo relies on Paulo Henrique (2 shots/90, 0.5 OT/90) but lacks consistent attacking output elsewhere. Defensively, Gil Vicente’s Jonathan Buatu and Ricardo Esgaio contribute with tackles (1.5 and 1.62/90 respectively). Maritimo’s Igor Julião has 2 yellow cards in 4 games, indicating some disciplinary issues.

Stats & Betting Angles

Gil Vicente has 0% BTTS and Over 2.5 this season, while Maritimo shows 60% BTTS and 80% Over 2.5, revealing contrasting styles. Gil Vicente’s 75% clean sheet rate contrasts with Maritimo’s 20%. The head-to-head trend favors Gil Vicente with multiple 2-1 and 2-0 results, suggesting a likely goal-rich but controlled game. Gil Vicente’s higher xG and possession hint at a home advantage, while Maritimo’s defensive frailty suggests goals conceded.

Verdict

Given Gil Vicente’s defensive strength, superior xG profile, and home advantage, expect them to edge this contest. Maritimo’s attacking threat via Paulo Henrique and tendency for BTTS and Over 2.5 games suggests goals for both sides but Gil Vicente’s solidity likely limits Maritimo’s scoring. A 2-1 Gil Vicente win aligns with historical results and current stats, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has the recent form of both teams influenced their current standings?

Gil Vicente’s recent form is LDWW, earning 7 points in 4 matches with a strong defensive record of 0.25 goals conceded per game. Maritimo’s LLDWW form also yields 7 points from 5 games but with a higher 1.6 goals conceded per game, indicating defensive instability. Gil Vicente’s slightly better defensive form contributes to their higher 7th place versus Maritimo’s 9th.

What do the xG statistics reveal about each team's attacking and defensive quality?

Gil Vicente’s xG this season is 1.7 for and 0.48 against per game, highlighting efficient attack and strong defense. Maritimo’s xG stands at 1.11 for and 1.13 against, showing weaker attacking output and defensive vulnerability. The higher xG difference (+1.22) for Gil Vicente aligns with their better defensive record and chance creation (15.3 shots/game) compared to Maritimo’s 10.8.

Who are the key attacking players for both teams and what are their per-90 contributions?

For Gil Vicente, Joelson Fernandes contributes 1.89 shots/90 with 0.63 on target and 1.58 key passes/90, while Gil Pinto Martins adds 2.27 shots/90 and 0.65 OT/90. Maritimo’s key attacker Paulo Henrique averages 2 shots/90 with 0.5 on target but fewer key passes (0.25/90). Gil Vicente’s higher shot volume and key passes per 90 indicate stronger offensive potential.

What defensive weaknesses does Maritimo show that Gil Vicente might exploit?

Maritimo concedes 1.6 goals per game and has a low 20% clean sheet rate, with xG against at 1.13 per game, signaling defensive frailty. Key defenders like Igor Julião have committed 2 yellow cards in 4 matches, suggesting disciplinary risks. Gil Vicente’s high possession (56%) and 15.3 shots/game combined with strong defenders (Buatu 1.5 tackles/90) could pressure Maritimo’s shaky defense.

Why is BTTS a plausible bet given the teams' stats and history?

Maritimo has a 60% BTTS rate this season and an 80% Over 2.5, reflecting their tendency to concede and score. Gil Vicente has 0% BTTS this season but historically matches have often seen both teams score, like the 2-1 results in recent H2H. Maritimo’s offensive threat via Paulo Henrique and Gil Vicente’s occasional concession despite strong defense make BTTS plausible.

What supports the Over/Under 2.5 goals market prediction in this fixture?

Maritimo’s 80% Over 2.5 rate and 1.6 goals conceded per game support the expectation of multiple goals. Gil Vicente’s strong defense limits goals conceded (0.25 per game), but their 1.7 xG and high shot volume (15.3) suggest scoring at least two goals. Recent H2H matches often end with 2 or more goals (e.g., 2-1, 2-0), supporting an Over 2.5 prediction.

How does the head-to-head history influence the expected match outcome?

Gil Vicente has dominated recent H2H meetings, winning 6 of the last 10 including 2-0 and 2-1 scorelines. Matches often feature 2-3 goals, with Gil Vicente scoring at least once in all recent games. Maritimo’s last home win against Gil Vicente was in 2021 (1-0). This history suggests Gil Vicente’s continued edge and a likely 2-1 home win.

Is there betting value in backing Gil Vicente given current stats and form?

Gil Vicente’s superior xG (+1.22 difference), strong defense (0.25 conceded, 75% clean sheets), and historical dominance make them a value bet. Despite Maritimo’s BTTS and Over 2.5 trends, Gil Vicente’s home form (LDWW) and control (56% possession) favor them. The predicted 2-1 scoreline offers attractive odds given Maritimo’s defensive issues and Gil Vicente’s efficiency.