Genoa VS Frosinone Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 12, 2026)

Genoa CFCGenoa

1 - 1

HT: 0-1

Frosinone CalcioFrosinone

Serie A·Luigi Ferraris

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both Teams to Score is a solid prediction due to Frosinone Calcio's strong scoring ability, with 43 goals in 20 matches, coupled with Genoa CFC's 40% BTTS rate indicating they can find the net as well. Historically, their matches have seen both teams score frequently, as evidenced by the 60% BTTS rate for Frosinone and their head-to-head results. This trend suggests that both teams are likely to score in this encounter.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Over 2.5 goals

View Reasoning

Given Frosinone Calcio's impressive offensive record with 43 goals scored this season and a high over 2.5 goals rate of 70%, it's likely that this match will see multiple goals. Genoa CFC's struggles in defense, illustrated by their 29 goals conceded, further support the expectation for a high-scoring match. The historical context also backs this, as their last 10 encounters have produced an average of 2.9 goals per match.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Genoaper gameFrosinone

0.6

xG for

0.8

1.2

xG against

2.2

Possession %

38.5

Shots

11.5

Genoa — last 5

LLL

Frosinone — last 5

Team Stats

Genoaper gameFrosinone

0.6

xG for

0.8

1.2

xG against

2.2

Possession %

38.5

Shots

11.5

1.7

Shots on tgt

Corners

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Genoa — last 5

LLL

Frosinone — last 5

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Genoa	10-11-17	1.1	1.3	9
Frosinone	0-0-0	0	0	0

Genoa performance

Total Matches

Form

6W3D11L

Avg Scored

1.00

per match

Avg Conceded

1.45

per match

Goals Scored20

Goals Conceded29

Clean Sheets5 (25%)

BTTS40%

Over 2.545%

Over 3.520%

Frosinone performance

Total Matches

Form

12W6D2L

Avg Scored

2.15

per match

Avg Conceded

0.95

per match

Goals Scored43

Goals Conceded19

Clean Sheets7 (35%)

BTTS60%

Over 2.570%

Over 3.540%

Expected Match Outcome

Genoa

1-2

(1.0 - 1.8 xG)

Frosinone

Genoa

Scores1.00/g

Concedes1.45/g

Frosinone

Scores2.15/g

Concedes0.95/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

50%

Over 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 2.5

43%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Genoa wins

Draws

Frosinone wins

Recent meetings

30 Mar 2024Genoa

1–1

Frosinone

26 Nov 2023Frosinone

2–1

Genoa

13 May 2023Frosinone

3–2

Genoa

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Lazio	7	6	1	0	+10	19
3	AS Roma	7	5	2	0	+13	17
4	AC Milan	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Como	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	Frosinone	7	4	1	2	+4	13
7	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	-1	13
8	Juventus	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Napoli	7	3	1	3	+3	10
10	Torino	7	3	1	3	+1	10
11	Atalanta	7	3	0	4	-1	9
12	Lecce	7	3	0	4	-3	9
13	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Monza	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Udinese	7	1	1	5	-7	4
17	Genoa	7	1	1	5	-8	4
18	Fiorentina	7	1	1	5	-9	4
19	Parma	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Venezia	7	1	0	6	-10	3

Overview

Genoa (19th, 0 pts) host Frosinone (7th, 6 pts) in this Serie B clash. Genoa have struggled early, losing all 3 games with just 0.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per match, while Frosinone have started positively with a win and a loss, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 per game. Last season, Genoa averaged 1.1 goals and 1.3 conceded per game, showing a better baseline than this start, whereas Frosinone are promoted newcomers with no last-season Serie B data.

Form & xG

Genoa's xG this season is 0.55 for and 1.2 against, reflecting their poor form and defensive frailty. Their possession is 46%, with 10 shots per game but only 1.7 on target, indicating inefficiency. Frosinone's xG is 0.76 for but an alarming 2.16 against, despite conceding only 0.5 goals so far. They have less possession (38.5%) but produce 11.5 shots (4 on target) per game, suggesting a more direct attacking style.

Team News & Key Players

Genoa's key players like Morten Frendrup (0.67 shots/90, 1.33 key passes/90) and L. Østigård (1.46 tackles/90) have yet to impact the scoreboard. Frosinone's Antonio Raimondo leads with 2 goals in 2 games, 1.01 shots and 1.01 on target per 90, supported by Giacomo Calò's 4.19 key passes/90, highlighting their creative threat.

Stats & Betting Angles

Head-to-head matches have been competitive: recent results include a 1-1 draw and a 2-1 win for Frosinone. Genoa's BTTS rate this season is 33%, Frosinone's 0%, but last season Genoa scored 1.1 goals per game and conceded 1.3, suggesting goals at both ends. Over 2.5 goals has occurred in only 33% of Genoa's games this season, 50% for Frosinone, indicating a moderate chance for goals.

Verdict

Given Genoa's poor defensive form and Frosinone's attacking firepower, a close, high-scoring game is expected. The recent H2H and per-90 stats favor a match with goals from both sides. Expect a 2-1 win for Frosinone, with both teams to score and over 2.5 goals likely, despite Genoa's early-season struggles.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does recent form affect the expected outcome of Genoa vs Frosinone?

Genoa's recent form is poor with 3 consecutive losses, scoring only 0.33 goals per game and conceding 2.33, while Frosinone have 1 win and 1 loss, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 per game. This contrast suggests Frosinone are in better shape, increasing their chances to win.

What does the xG profile reveal about both teams' attacking and defensive strengths?

Genoa's xG is 0.55 for and 1.2 against per game, indicating weak attack and vulnerable defense. Frosinone's xG is 0.76 for but 2.16 against, suggesting they create chances but are defensively fragile. This could lead to a match with goals from both sides.

Who are the key attackers likely to influence the match outcome?

Frosinone's Antonio Raimondo is the standout attacker with 2 goals, 1.01 shots, and 1.01 shots on target per 90 minutes. Genoa's Morten Frendrup contributes 0.67 shots and 1.33 key passes per 90 but has yet to score, making Raimondo the main offensive threat.

How does defensive frailty impact the expected goals conceded?

Genoa concedes 2.33 goals per game this season, well above their last season's 1.3 average, showing increased defensive issues. Frosinone’s xG conceded is 2.16 but they have only conceded 0.5 goals so far, indicating some luck or solid goalkeeping. Defensive weaknesses suggest goals likely for both sides.

What is the rationale for expecting both teams to score (BTTS)?

Despite Genoa’s low BTTS rate of 33% this season, last season they averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, indicating goals at both ends. Frosinone have 0% BTTS so far but their 2.16 xG against signals defensive vulnerability. Recent H2H matches often featured BTTS, supporting this expectation.

Why might the match go over or under 2.5 goals?

Genoa have seen over 2.5 goals in 33% of their matches this season; Frosinone 50%. Last season Genoa averaged 2.4 total goals per game (1.1 scored + 1.3 conceded). Frosinone’s high xG against (2.16) suggests defensive lapses. This data supports a moderate probability for over 2.5 goals.

How have recent head-to-head matches influenced expectations?

Recent H2H results: Genoa 1-1 Frosinone (Mar 2024), Frosinone 2-1 Genoa (Nov 2023), and Frosinone 3-2 Genoa (May 2023) all featured multiple goals and BTTS. This trend of competitive, goal-filled matches supports expectations of a close 2-1 Frosinone win with BTTS.

Is there betting value in backing a Frosinone win with BTTS and over 2.5 goals?

Given Genoa's poor form (0 pts, 3 losses), Frosinone's attacking stats (Antonio Raimondo 2 goals, 1.01 shots/90), and recent H2H trends with multiple goals and BTTS, betting on a Frosinone win with BTTS and over 2.5 goals offers value. Genoa's defensive frailty increases the likelihood of conceding multiple goals.