Estoril Praia VS Casa Pia Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 20, 2026)

GD Estoril PraiaEstoril Praia

17:00

Sun, Sep 20 2026

Casa Pia ACCasa Pia

Liga Portugal·Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota

Predicto Verdict

75%

Confidence

Estoril to win narrowly with goals from both sides

Score

2-1

BTTS

Yes

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Key Stats

Estorilper gameCasa Pia

0.9

xG for

0.5

1.6

xG against

1.8

45.6

Possession %

12.6

Shots

9.2

Estoril — last 5

DLLLD

Casa Pia — last 5

DLLLL

Community Predictions

250

Match Result

Both Teams to Score

Total Goals

Team Stats

Estorilper gameCasa Pia

0.9

xG for

0.5

1.6

xG against

1.8

45.6

Possession %

12.6

Shots

9.2

4.8

Shots on tgt

2.2

Corners

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Estoril — last 5

DLLLD

Casa Pia — last 5

DLLLL

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Estoril	10-9-15	1.6	1.7	5
Casa Pia	7-13-16	0.9	1.6	9

Estoril Praia performance

Total Matches

Form

2W7D11L

Avg Scored

0.70

per match

Avg Conceded

1.40

per match

Goals Scored14

Goals Conceded28

Clean Sheets5 (25%)

BTTS45%

Over 2.535%

Over 3.515%

Casa Pia performance

Total Matches

Form

3W5D12L

Avg Scored

0.60

per match

Avg Conceded

1.80

per match

Goals Scored12

Goals Conceded36

Clean Sheets5 (25%)

BTTS35%

Over 2.535%

Over 3.525%

Expected Match Outcome

Estoril Praia

1-1

(1.3 - 1.0 xG)

Casa Pia

Estoril Praia

Scores0.70/g

Concedes1.40/g

Casa Pia

Scores0.60/g

Concedes1.80/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

40%

Over 2.5

35%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 2.5

65%

Head-to-Head & Form

Estoril wins

Draws

Casa Pia wins

Recent meetings

07 Mar 2026Estoril

0–0

Casa Pia

03 Oct 2025Casa Pia

2–2

Estoril

29 Apr 2025Casa Pia

1–3

Estoril

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	6	6	0	0	+13	18
2	Benfica	5	4	1	0	+15	13
3	Sporting CP	5	4	1	0	+9	13
4	Santa Clara	5	3	2	0	+6	11
5	Arouca	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Estrela	5	2	3	0	+2	9
7	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	-2	8
8	GIL Vicente	4	2	1	1	+2	7
9	SC Braga	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Maritimo	5	2	1	2	-2	7
11	Alverca	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Vitória SC	6	1	1	4	-3	4
13	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-4	4
14	Moreirense	5	1	1	3	-8	4
15	Famalicao	5	0	3	2	-2	3
16	Rio Ave	5	1	0	4	-9	3
17	Estoril	5	0	2	3	-5	2
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	-14	1

Overview

Estoril and Casa Pia meet with both teams struggling early this season, sitting 16th and 18th respectively with just 2 and 1 points from 5 games. Last season, Estoril scored 1.6 goals per game and conceded 1.7, while Casa Pia had a lower output of 0.9 scored and 1.6 conceded. Early 2026/27 data shows Estoril scoring 0.4 and conceding 1.4 per game, with Casa Pia at 0 scored and 2.2 conceded, signaling offensive issues for Casa Pia.

Form & xG

Estoril's recent form is DLLLD with an xG of 0.86 for and 1.56 against, while Casa Pia is on a five-game losing streak (DLLLL) with an xG of 0.52 for and 1.75 against. Estoril's possession is slightly under 46%, with 12.6 shots per game (4.8 on target), compared to Casa Pia's 9.2 shots (2.2 on target). Both teams have low expected goals and poor conversion, but Estoril is marginally better in attack and defense.

Team News & Key Players

Estoril relies on Y. Begraoui, who averages 1.6 shots and 1.2 key passes per 90 minutes, scoring twice this season. João Carvalho contributes creativity with 1.8 key passes per 90. Casa Pia’s offense is limited; no goals scored and low per-90 shots from key players like David Sousa (1.2 shots/90) and L. Ofori (0.8 shots/90). Defensively, both teams concede over 1.4 goals per game this season, with Estoril’s Ferro and Isma Sierra accumulating 4 yellow cards combined.

Stats & Betting Angles

Both teams have a low BTTS rate this season: Estoril 40%, Casa Pia 0%. Under 2.5 goals occurred in 80% of matches for both. Last season, Estoril kept only 5 clean sheets and failed to score 10 times; Casa Pia had 9 clean sheets but failed to score 16 times. Head-to-head shows tight contests with recent draws and low-scoring games, including a 0-0 in March 2026 and 2-2 draws in 2025, indicating a cautious approach.

Verdict

Given both teams' offensive struggles and defensive vulnerabilities, a tight low-scoring game is expected. Estoril's slightly better attack and home advantage suggest a narrow win. The low xG and shot quality imply under 2.5 goals, but Estoril's ability to score some goals and Casa Pia's defensive frailty point to BTTS yes. The last meetings' scorelines reinforce a close 2-1 result as plausible.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How has Estoril's recent form impacted their attacking output?

Estoril's recent form is DLLLD with only 0.4 goals scored per game this season, well below last season's 1.6. Their xG is 0.86, indicating they are creating fewer quality chances. Despite 12.6 shots per game, only 4.8 are on target, suggesting poor finishing or chance creation. This decline in form correlates with their low scoring output.

What does the xG profile suggest about Casa Pia's attacking and defensive capabilities?

Casa Pia's xG this season is 0.52 for and 1.75 against, indicating a lack of attacking threat and defensive weakness. They have yet to score in 5 matches, matching their 0 goals per game, and concede 2.2 goals on average. Their 9.2 shots per game with only 2.2 on target further illustrate offensive struggles, while conceding 1.75 xG per game signals defensive vulnerability.

Who are the key attackers for Estoril and what are their per-90 contributions?

Y. Begraoui is Estoril's main attacker with 2 goals this season, averaging 1.6 shots and 1.2 key passes per 90 minutes. João Carvalho supports creativity with 1.8 key passes and 1.6 shots per 90. These figures highlight Begraoui's role as a primary goal threat and Carvalho's role as a chance creator.

How does the defensive frailty of both teams compare?

Estoril concedes 1.4 goals per game with an xG against of 1.56, while Casa Pia concedes 2.2 goals with 1.75 xG against, showing Casa Pia is more vulnerable defensively. Both have low clean sheet rates (20%), but Casa Pia’s higher goals conceded and zero goals scored indicate a more fragile defense coupled with offensive inefficiency.

What is the rationale behind the BTTS prediction?

Despite Casa Pia's zero goals scored this season and 0% BTTS rate, Estoril’s 40% BTTS and 2.2 goals conceded by Casa Pia suggest Casa Pia will likely concede but also score. The recent head-to-head includes multiple draws with goals (2-2 twice), indicating both teams can find the net, supporting a BTTS Yes outcome.

Why is the under 2.5 goals forecast favored?

Both teams have only 20% of their matches over 2.5 goals this season, supported by low xG (Estoril 0.86, Casa Pia 0.52). Their low shot accuracy and finishing, combined with defensive frailty but overall cautious play, plus the recent head-to-head low-scoring draws, favor under 2.5 goals.

What do the recent head-to-head results indicate about the match outcome?

Recent head-to-head matches feature tight scorelines: 0-0 in March 2026, 2-2 twice in 2025, and 1-3 Estoril win in April 2025. These results show competitive, low-scoring affairs. The trend supports a close game with both teams scoring but Estoril edging a narrow 2-1 victory.

Is there any betting value in this fixture based on stats?

Given the low scoring early season form and defensive issues, backing Estoril to win 2-1 offers value considering their marginally better attack and home advantage. BTTS Yes and Under 2.5 goals are also statistically supported by low xG and shot quality. The rarity of Casa Pia scoring increases odds on BTTS, suggesting potential value there.