Groningen VS Zwolle Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 18, 2026)

FC GroningenGroningen

3 - 0

HT: 2-0

PEC ZwolleZwolle

Eredivisie·Euroborg

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

@1.50

View Reasoning

Both teams have shown a strong inclination to score in their matches, with FC Groningen having a BTTS rate of 65% and PEC Zwolle at 55%. This suggests that both teams are capable of finding the net, especially given their defensive vulnerabilities, as evidenced by PEC Zwolle's 47 goals conceded. Moreover, the H2H history suggests a competitive dynamic, making it likely that both teams will score in this fixture.

Human Analyst

Correct

Over 2.5 goals

@1.41

View Reasoning

FC Groningen has a high tendency for matches to go over 2.5 goals, with 70% of their games surpassing this mark. Their average goals scored (30) and goals against (33) suggest a propensity for high-scoring encounters. The H2H history also supports this prediction, with 15 goals scored in the last 10 meetings, indicating a competitive edge in goal-scoring.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Groningenper gamePEC Zwolle

1.9

xG for

1.2

2.1

xG against

1.6

52.5

Possession %

38.8

15.5

Shots

11.8

Groningen — last 5

LLWW

PEC Zwolle — last 5

DLWLL

Team Stats

Groningenper gamePEC Zwolle

1.9

xG for

1.2

2.1

xG against

1.6

52.5

Possession %

38.8

15.5

Shots

11.8

6.3

Shots on tgt

4.5

Corners

3.6

100

BTTS %

100

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Groningen — last 5

LLWW

PEC Zwolle — last 5

DLWLL

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Groningen	14-6-15	1.4	1.3	10
PEC Zwolle	9-10-15	1.3	2.1	6

Groningen performance

Total Matches

Form

8W4D8L

Avg Scored

1.50

per match

Avg Conceded

1.65

per match

Goals Scored30

Goals Conceded33

Clean Sheets5 (25%)

BTTS65%

Over 2.570%

Over 3.540%

Zwolle performance

Total Matches

Form

4W5D11L

Avg Scored

1.05

per match

Avg Conceded

2.35

per match

Goals Scored21

Goals Conceded47

Clean Sheets3 (15%)

BTTS55%

Over 2.560%

Over 3.550%

Expected Match Outcome

Groningen

2-1

(1.9 - 1.4 xG)

Zwolle

Groningen

Scores1.50/g

Concedes1.65/g

Zwolle

Scores1.05/g

Concedes2.35/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

60%

Over 2.5

65%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 2.5

35%

Head-to-Head & Form

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	2	1	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	+15	18
5	Twente	9	5	2	2	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	4	3	2	-1	15
7	Groningen	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Heerenveen	9	3	3	3	+4	12
9	GO Ahead Eagles	9	2	5	2	-1	11
10	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	-2	11
11	Utrecht	9	3	2	4	-10	11
12	NEC Nijmegen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-6	9
14	Cambuur	9	2	3	4	-8	9
15	PEC Zwolle	9	2	1	6	-12	7
16	Telstar	9	1	3	5	-8	6
17	ADO Den Haag	9	1	3	5	-9	6
18	Willem II	9	0	2	7	-17	2

Overview

Groningen currently sit 10th with 7 points, slightly ahead of PEC Zwolle in 13th with 4 points after 4-5 games. Last season Groningen averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, while PEC Zwolle managed 1.3 scored but conceded 2.1 per game. This indicates Groningen have a more balanced defensive record compared to PEC Zwolle's leaky defence, which could be decisive in this fixture.

Form & xG

Groningen's recent form is LLWW, scoring 2.25 and conceding 2.5 goals per game this season, with an xG of 1.86 for and 2.14 against, indicating some defensive vulnerability. PEC Zwolle have a weaker form of DLWLL, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2, with xG 1.21 for and 1.6 against, showing less offensive threat but slightly better defensive xG numbers. Both teams have seen high BTTS and over 2.5 goals frequencies early in the season.

Team news & key players

Key Groningen attacker Thom van Bergen averages 3.75 shots and 1.75 on target per 90 minutes, with 2 goals and 2 assists in 4 games, making him a focal point. PEC Zwolle's top scorer Koen Kostons has 3 goals averaging 2.01 shots and 1.01 on target per 90, but the team overall has less possession (38.8%) and fewer shots (11.8) per game. Groningen's goalkeeper Etienne Vaessen has a high rating of 7.6, but the team has yet to keep a clean sheet this season.

Stats & betting angles

Groningen averages 4.5 corners per game against PEC's 3.6, with Groningen committing fewer fouls (8.8 vs 11.8) and receiving fewer yellow cards (1.25 vs 1.75). Both teams have strong BTTS trends (Groningen 100%, PEC 60%) and over 2.5 goals (Groningen 100%, PEC 60%) this season, aligning with last season's averages of 1.4 and 1.3 goals scored per game respectively. Clean sheets are rare for both sides (Groningen 10, PEC 6 last season).

Verdict

Given Groningen's slightly better offensive stats, home advantage, and their higher xG and possession metrics, they are favored to edge this match. PEC Zwolle's defensive frailties and lower possession suggest they will concede multiple goals. The high BTTS and over 2.5 goals rates from both teams this season and last season baseline support a competitive, goal-rich encounter. Expect a 2-1 win for Groningen with both teams finding the net.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has the recent form of both teams influenced this match prediction?

Groningen's recent form of LLWW with 2.25 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per game contrasts PEC Zwolle's DLWLL with 1.2 scored and 2 conceded. Groningen's improving form and higher scoring average, combined with PEC's defensive struggles conceding 2 per game, underpin confidence in Groningen's slight edge and a goal-rich game.

What do the xG statistics suggest about the attacking and defensive capabilities?

Groningen's xG of 1.86 for and 2.14 against shows they create decent chances but concede more than expected, indicating defensive frailty. PEC Zwolle's xG 1.21 for and 1.6 against points to fewer scoring opportunities and somewhat leaky defense. This suggests Groningen have a stronger attack but vulnerable defense, supporting a close, high-scoring match.

Who are the key attackers and their per-90 shooting stats?

Groningen's Thom van Bergen averages 3.75 shots and 1.75 on target per 90 minutes, with 2 goals and 2 assists in 4 appearances, making him their main threat. PEC Zwolle's Koen Kostons has 3 goals with 2.01 shots and 1.01 on target per 90, but the team overall generates fewer shots and possession, indicating van Bergen could have more influence.

How do defensive stats and clean sheets affect the game outlook?

Groningen conceded 1.3 goals per game last season with 10 clean sheets in 35 matches, showing some defensive solidity. PEC Zwolle conceded 2.1 per game with only 6 clean sheets in 34 matches, highlighting defensive weaknesses. This suggests PEC is more likely to concede multiple goals, increasing chances for Groningen to score.

Why is BTTS (both teams to score) expected in this match?

Groningen have a 100% BTTS rate this season and PEC Zwolle 60%. Last season, Groningen failed to score only 8 times in 35 matches, while PEC failed 6 times in 34. Both concede multiple goals regularly, so both teams scoring is very likely, especially given Groningen's 2.5 goals conceded per game this season.

What supports the expectation of over 2.5 goals?

Both teams have recorded 100% (Groningen) and 60% (PEC Zwolle) over 2.5 goals matches this season. Groningen scores 2.25 and concedes 2.5 goals per game, PEC 1.2 scored and 2 conceded. Last season, average goals per game for these teams were around 2.7 combined, indicating a high probability of over 2.5 goals.

Is there betting value in backing Groningen for this match?

Groningen's stronger home form, higher xG (1.86 vs 1.21), and superior possession (52.5% vs 38.8%) provide a solid basis for backing them. PEC's leaky defence conceding 2 goals per game and weaker attack lessens their odds. Considering Groningen's clean sheet potential is low but scoring multiple goals is likely, betting on Groningen to win and BTTS is value.