Derby County VS Wrexham Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Oct 10, 2026)

Derby County FCDerby County

1 - 1

HT: 1-0

Wrexham AFCWrexham

Championship·Pride Park

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Wrexham AFC to win

@2.44

View Reasoning

Wrexham AFC to win is a viable prediction as they have a stronger overall performance with a 6-win record compared to Derby County FC's 5 wins. Wrexham's higher clean sheet percentage (30%) suggests they can defend better than Derby, who have only managed a 15% clean sheet rate. Additionally, the head-to-head advantage for Wrexham, having won their previous match, further supports this prediction.

Human Analyst

Correct

Both Teams to Score

@1.75

View Reasoning

Both Teams to Score is a solid bet given that Derby County FC has a BTTS rate of 65%, while Wrexham AFC follows closely with 45%. Both teams have shown vulnerability in defense, with Derby conceding 32 goals and Wrexham 29. The head-to-head record also suggests a competitive match, as they have scored 5 goals in their previous encounters, indicating a tendency for both teams to find the net.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Derbyper gameWrexham

xG for

1.6

1.4

xG against

1.1

49.9

Possession %

50.6

12.1

Shots

11.3

Derby — last 5

DLLLW

Wrexham — last 5

WLDWL

Team Stats

Derbyper gameWrexham

xG for

1.6

1.4

xG against

1.1

49.9

Possession %

50.6

12.1

Shots

11.3

3.6

Shots on tgt

3.9

6.4

Corners

5.1

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Derby — last 5

DLLLW

Wrexham — last 5

WLDWL

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Derby	20-9-17	1.5	1.3	12
Wrexham	19-14-13	1.5	1.4	12

Derby County performance

Total Matches

Form

5W3D12L

Avg Scored

1.15

per match

Avg Conceded

1.60

per match

Goals Scored23

Goals Conceded32

Clean Sheets3 (15%)

BTTS65%

Over 2.565%

Over 3.520%

Wrexham performance

Total Matches

Form

6W6D8L

Avg Scored

1.00

per match

Avg Conceded

1.45

per match

Goals Scored20

Goals Conceded29

Clean Sheets6 (30%)

BTTS45%

Over 2.540%

Over 3.525%

Expected Match Outcome

Derby County

1-1

(1.3 - 1.3 xG)

Wrexham

Derby County

Scores1.15/g

Concedes1.60/g

Wrexham

Scores1.00/g

Concedes1.45/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

55%

Over 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 2.5

48%

Head-to-Head & Form

Derby wins

Draws

Wrexham wins

Recent meetings

04 Jan 2026Derby

1–2

Wrexham

27 Sept 2025Wrexham

1–1

Derby

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	12	7	4	1	+10	25
2	Swansea	12	7	2	3	+3	23
3	West Ham	12	6	4	2	+17	22
4	Wolves	12	6	3	3	+4	21
5	West Brom	12	6	3	3	+3	21
6	Southampton	12	7	3	2	+12	20
7	Birmingham	12	5	5	2	+8	20
8	QPR	12	5	5	2	+8	20
9	Stoke City	12	6	2	4	+2	20
10	Blackburn	12	5	3	4	+3	18
11	Portsmouth	12	5	3	4	+1	18
12	Sheffield Utd	12	4	4	4	+1	16
13	Millwall	12	4	3	5	-1	15
14	Bristol City	12	4	3	5	-3	15
15	Lincoln	12	4	3	5	-7	15
16	Cardiff	12	3	5	4	+2	14
17	Wrexham	12	3	5	4	-3	14
18	Bolton	12	4	2	6	-7	14
19	Charlton	12	3	5	4	-7	14
20	Norwich	12	4	0	8	-2	12
21	Watford	12	3	2	7	-10	11
22	Burnley	12	1	5	6	-8	8
23	Derby	12	1	4	7	-11	7
24	Preston	12	1	2	9	-15	5

Overview

Derby sits 22nd with 5 points from 8 games, struggling defensively with 1.75 goals conceded per game this season, slightly worse than last season's 1.3. Wrexham, 14th with 10 points, has a better start and a higher xG for (1.59 vs Derby's 1.03). Last season both teams averaged 1.5 goals scored per game, showing Derby’s current attack is underperforming. Wrexham’s recent form (WLDWL) contrasts with Derby’s poor run (DLLLW).

Form & xG

Derby’s xG of 1.03 per game is below last season’s baseline of 1.5, while conceding 1.43 xG against per match, indicating defensive frailty. Wrexham’s xG for 1.59 exceeds their last season’s 1.5, while conceding only 1.06 xG per game, showing better defensive solidity. Both sides have BTTS rates around 50-71% this season, with Wrexham more prone to high-scoring games (O2.5 at 57%).

Team news & key players

Derby’s top attacker Szmodics averages 2.97 shots and 0.66 key passes per 90, with 2 goals and 1 assist in 7 apps. Bobby Clark is also influential with 2 goals, 2 assists, and 1.94 shots/90. Wrexham’s leading contributor Doyle has 1 goal, 0.86 key passes, and 0.71 OT per 90. Defensive discipline differs: Derby averages 2.25 yellows per game vs Wrexham’s 1.29, possibly impacting player availability.

Stats & betting angles

Derby averages 6.4 corners per game, Wrexham 5.1, both below match averages. Derby commits more fouls (13.4 vs 10.9), hinting at defensive pressure. Wrexham’s BTTS at 71% and O2.5 at 57% suggest more open games. Last head-to-heads favored Wrexham (2-1, 1-1). Derby’s clean sheet rate has dropped from 12 last season to 13% this season, Wrexham similar at 14%.

Verdict

Wrexham’s superior xG profile, better recent form, and historical H2H edge suggest a narrow away win. Derby’s defensive vulnerabilities and lower attacking output reduce their chances. Expect goals from both sides given Derby’s 50% BTTS and Wrexham’s 71%. The match likely exceeds 2.5 goals, reflecting open play and defensive lapses.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does recent form influence the expected outcome?

Wrexham's recent form (WLDWL) yields 10 points from 7 games, outperforming Derby's poor run (DLLLW) with 5 points in 8. This form aligns with Wrexham’s higher xG for (1.59 vs 1.03) and their better defensive xG against (1.06 vs 1.43), indicating momentum and efficiency advantages that suggest Wrexham is more likely to win.

What does the xG profile reveal about both teams?

Derby's xG for is just 1.03 per game this season, below last season's 1.5, while conceding 1.43 xG against, indicating defensive struggles. Wrexham improves on last season with 1.59 xG for and allows only 1.06 xG against, showing better balance. This suggests Wrexham creates more quality chances and defends more effectively.

Who are the key attackers and their per-90 stats?

Derby’s Szmodics leads with 2.97 shots and 0.66 key passes per 90, contributing 2 goals, 1 assist in 7 matches. Bobby Clark adds 1.94 shots and 1.25 key passes per 90, with 2 goals and 2 assists. Wrexham’s top attacker Doyle averages 1 shot and 0.86 key passes per 90, scoring 1 goal in 7 games, indicating Derby’s attack is more prolific per 90 minutes.

How vulnerable are the defenses based on stats?

Derby concedes 1.75 goals per game and 1.43 xG against, with only 13% clean sheets this season, worse than last season’s 12 clean sheets in 46 games. Wrexham concedes 1.71 goals and 1.06 xG against, with a 14% clean sheet rate. Both defenses show vulnerability, but Derby’s metrics indicate a slightly more porous backline.

Why is BTTS likely in this fixture?

BTTS occurs in 50% of Derby’s matches and 71% of Wrexham’s this season. Derby concedes 1.75 goals per game, Wrexham scores 1.29, indicating both teams have the capacity and tendency to score and concede. Historical H2H shows both teams scored in recent matches (2-1, 1-1), reinforcing BTTS likelihood.

What supports betting on over 2.5 goals?

Derby’s 63% O2.5 rate and Wrexham’s 57% suggest frequent high-scoring games. Combined, both teams average 3+ goals conceded per match (1.75 + 1.71). Historical matches (2-1, 1-1) had 3 and 2 goals, supporting expectations for over 2.5 goals, especially with Derby’s defensive weaknesses.

How do head-to-head results influence this match?

In the last two meetings, Wrexham won 2-1 away and drew 1-1 at home. Both matches featured BTTS and at least 2 goals. This trend indicates Wrexham’s ability to score and defend against Derby, suggesting a repeat of competitive, goal-involving encounters.

Is there value in betting on Wrexham to win?

Wrexham’s better xG profile (1.59 vs 1.03), recent form (10 points vs 5), and H2H advantage (win and draw) suggest value in backing them. Derby’s defensive frailties and low scoring reduce their chances. Given these stats, betting on Wrexham offers a positive expected value.