Derby County VS West Brom Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 9, 2026)

Derby County FCDerby County

0 - 1

HT: 0-1

West Bromwich Albion FCWest Brom

Championship·Pride Park Stadium

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Derby County FC to win

View Reasoning

Derby County FC's strong head-to-head record against West Bromwich Albion, winning 11 out of 15 encounters, indicates a psychological advantage. Additionally, with Derby's current form of 9 wins out of 20 matches, they are likely to capitalize on their home advantage. The odds reflect their potential for a win, especially with over 60% of their matches resulting in over 2.5 goals, suggesting a high-scoring environment in their favor.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both teams have shown a decent ability to find the net, with Derby County FC having a BTTS percentage of 50% and West Bromwich Albion FC at 55%. Given the historical dominance of Derby over West Brom in their head-to-head encounters, where they have scored a total of 46 goals in 15 matches, it's likely both teams will score in this matchup. The attacking talent on both sides makes this bet appealing, especially considering Derby's recent scoring form with 27 goals this season.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Derbyper gameWest Brom

xG for

1.6

1.7

xG against

2.2

Possession %

54.6

Shots

11.2

Derby — last 5

LWLDL

West Brom — last 5

WDLWW

Team Stats

Derbyper gameWest Brom

xG for

1.6

1.7

xG against

2.2

Possession %

54.6

Shots

11.2

3.2

Shots on tgt

4.4

4.8

Corners

4.8

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Derby — last 5

LWLDL

West Brom — last 5

WDLWW

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Derby	20-9-17	1.5	1.3	12
West Brom	13-14-19	1	1.3	14

Derby County performance

Total Matches

Form

9W1D10L

Avg Scored

1.35

per match

Avg Conceded

1.50

per match

Goals Scored27

Goals Conceded30

Clean Sheets6 (30%)

BTTS50%

Over 2.560%

Over 3.525%

West Brom performance

Total Matches

Form

7W8D5L

Avg Scored

1.25

per match

Avg Conceded

1.00

per match

Goals Scored25

Goals Conceded20

Clean Sheets8 (40%)

BTTS55%

Over 2.545%

Over 3.520%

Expected Match Outcome

Derby County

1-1

(1.2 - 1.4 xG)

West Brom

Derby County

Scores1.35/g

Concedes1.50/g

West Brom

Scores1.25/g

Concedes1.00/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

53%

Over 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 2.5

48%

Head-to-Head & Form

Derby wins

Draws

West Brom wins

Recent meetings

23 Jan 2026Derby

1–1

West Brom

13 Sept 2025West Brom

0–1

Derby

12 Aug 2025West Brom

1–1

Derby

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	11	7	2	2	+8	23
2	West Ham	11	6	4	1	+18	22
3	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	+6	22
4	Birmingham	11	5	5	1	+9	20
5	West Brom	11	6	2	3	+3	20
6	Stoke City	11	6	1	4	+2	19
7	Wolves	11	5	3	3	+3	18
8	Southampton	11	6	3	2	+11	17
9	QPR	11	4	5	2	+3	17
10	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	+1	15
11	Sheffield Utd	11	4	3	4	+1	15
12	Millwall	11	4	3	4	0	15
13	Portsmouth	11	4	3	4	0	15
14	Wrexham	11	3	5	3	-1	14
15	Bolton	11	4	2	5	-3	14
16	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	-3	14
17	Charlton	11	3	5	3	-5	14
18	Lincoln	11	3	3	5	-10	12
19	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	+1	11
20	Watford	11	3	2	6	-9	11
21	Norwich	11	3	0	8	-4	9
22	Burnley	11	1	5	5	-5	8
23	Derby	11	1	3	7	-11	6
24	Preston	11	1	1	9	-15	4

Overview

Derby sit 20th with 4 points from 5 games, struggling to score with just 1 goal per game and conceding 2. West Brom are 5th with 10 points, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.2 per game. Last season Derby averaged 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded, while West Brom managed 1.0 and 1.3 respectively. The historical head-to-head favors Derby slightly with multiple wins and draws, but recent matches have been tight, including a 1-1 draw in January 2026.

Form & xG

Derby's current xG is 0.97 for and 1.7 against, highlighting their defensive frailty and low attacking threat. West Brom's xG is 1.6 for but a high 2.23 against, indicating defensive issues despite better attack. Derby's possession is low at 44%, West Brom controls 54.6%. Derby's 80% of matches have gone Over 2.5 goals this season, West Brom's 60%. BTTS occurs in 40% of Derby's games but 80% for West Brom, suggesting a likelihood of both teams scoring.

Team News & Key Players

Derby's key contributor in attack is Bobby Clark with 1 goal, 2 assists, 1.66 shots and key passes per 90. Defensively, Sondre Langås has 3 yellow cards indicating possible disciplinary issues. West Brom's Isaac Price is the standout attacker with 2 goals, 1 assist, 2.4 shots and 1.4 OT per 90, a significant threat. Midfielder Styles contributes 1 goal and 1.4 key passes per 90. West Brom's defense shows 3 yellows on Diakité, a potential vulnerability.

Stats & Betting Angles

Derby average 4.8 corners per game, matching West Brom's 4.8, with match average corner counts slightly higher for Derby's games (11.6) than West Brom's (10.2). Derby commits more fouls (15 per game) and cards (3 yellows) than West Brom (9.8 fouls, 2 yellows), suggesting a more aggressive style. Last season, Derby had 12 clean sheets vs West Brom's 14, but Derby failed to score only 4 times compared to West Brom's 15, indicating more consistent scoring from Derby.

Verdict

Given Derby's low xG and defensive frailty paired with West Brom's stronger attack but leaky defense, a close and open game is expected. Historical H2H data shows Derby edging West Brom slightly, but West Brom's recent form and key players like Isaac Price suggest they can score. BTTS is likely, and over 2.5 goals seems probable based on both teams' attacking metrics and recent results. Expect a narrow 2-1 win for West Brom.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has the recent form of Derby and West Brom influenced this match prediction?

Derby’s form (LWLDL) shows inconsistency with just 4 points from 5 games and only 1 goal scored per game, while West Brom’s better form (WDLWW) has earned them 10 points and 1.6 goals per game. This contrast suggests West Brom’s higher confidence and attacking edge, influencing the prediction towards a West Brom win.

What does the xG profile reveal about the attacking and defensive strengths of both teams?

Derby’s xG is low at 0.97 for and high at 1.7 against, indicating poor attack and leaky defense. West Brom’s xG for is better at 1.6 but defensively they concede an xG of 2.23, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities despite stronger offense. This suggests an open game with chances for both sides.

Which key attackers are likely to influence the match outcome based on their per-90 stats?

West Brom’s Isaac Price stands out with 2 goals, 1 assist, 2.4 shots, and 1.4 shots on target per 90, making him a major threat. Derby’s Bobby Clark, with 1 goal, 2 assists, 1.66 shots, and 1.66 key passes per 90, is their main creative outlet. These players are likely to be decisive.

How do defensive weaknesses and disciplinary records affect the expected match dynamics?

Derby concedes 1.7 goals per game with 3 yellows per match, while West Brom concedes 1.2 but has 2 yellows per game. Key defenders like Derby’s Langås (3 yellows) and West Brom’s Diakité (3 yellows) show disciplinary risks, potentially leading to aggressive and open play with defensive lapses.

Why is BTTS (both teams to score) considered likely in this fixture?

Derby’s BTTS rate is 40%, West Brom’s 80%. West Brom concedes an xG of 2.23 per game, highlighting defensive vulnerability, while Derby scores 1 goal per game. Combined with historical 1-1 and 2-1 draws, BTTS is a strong possibility.

What supports the expectation of over 2.5 goals in this match?

Derby’s matches have gone Over 2.5 goals 80% of the time this season, West Brom’s 60%. The high xG conceded by both teams (1.7 and 2.23) plus historical high-scoring matches like 3-1 and 2-1 results support an over 2.5 goals outcome.

How does the recent head-to-head history influence the prediction?

Recent H2H includes a 1-1 draw (Jan 2026), 1-0 Derby win (Sep 2025), and multiple close scorelines favoring Derby. However, West Brom’s current form and home/away dynamics suggest a tighter contest with a slight edge to West Brom, despite Derby’s historical advantage.

Is there any betting value in this fixture based on the stats and form?

West Brom’s better form (10 vs 4 points) and superior attacking xG (1.6 vs 0.97) offer value backing them to win. The BTTS and Over 2.5 goals markets are also attractive given West Brom’s 80% BTTS rate and Derby’s 80% Over 2.5 rate. The predicted 2-1 scoreline aligns with these trends.