Alavés VS Valencia Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 15, 2026)

Deportivo AlavésAlavés

0 - 1

HT: 0-0

Valencia CFValencia

LaLiga·Mendizorroza

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Over 2.5 goals

View Reasoning

The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is supported by Deportivo Alavés's O2.5 percentage of 55%, indicating that more than half of their matches have seen at least three goals. Furthermore, the head-to-head record shows a high scoring average, reinforcing the expectation for an open game. Given these stats, betting on over 2.5 goals appears promising.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both teams have shown a strong tendency to score in their matches, with Deportivo Alavés boasting a BTTS percentage of 70%. Additionally, in their head-to-head encounters, there have been a total of 37 goals over 15 matches, indicating a trend for both teams finding the net. This makes 'Both Teams to Score' a solid bet for this matchup.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Alavesper gameValencia

1.6

xG for

0.7

xG against

0.9

44.8

Possession %

41.8

13.5

Shots

9.8

Alaves — last 5

WWDW

Valencia — last 5

LLLD

Team Stats

Alavesper gameValencia

1.6

xG for

0.7

xG against

0.9

44.8

Possession %

41.8

13.5

Shots

9.8

Shots on tgt

2.8

5.3

Corners

3.8

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Alaves — last 5

WWDW

Valencia — last 5

LLLD

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Alaves	11-10-17	1.2	1.5	5
Valencia	--	–	–

Alavés performance

Total Matches

Form

9W7D4L

Avg Scored

1.80

per match

Avg Conceded

1.30

per match

Goals Scored36

Goals Conceded26

Clean Sheets6 (30%)

BTTS70%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.525%

Valencia performance

Total Matches

Form

6W4D10L

Avg Scored

1.10

per match

Avg Conceded

1.50

per match

Goals Scored22

Goals Conceded30

Clean Sheets3 (15%)

BTTS55%

Over 2.550%

Over 3.525%

Expected Match Outcome

Alavés

2-1

(1.6 - 1.2 xG)

Valencia

Alavés

Scores1.80/g

Concedes1.30/g

Valencia

Scores1.10/g

Concedes1.50/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

63%

Over 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 2.5

48%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	+27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	+10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	+5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	+11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	+1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	+4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	+1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	+2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	+1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Overview

Alaves sit impressively 2nd in the standings with 10 points from 4 games, boasting a strong home record and a solid defense conceding just 0.75 goals per game this season. Valencia, in stark contrast, are bottom with just 1 point and a leaky defense allowing 2.25 goals per game. Last season’s baseline shows Alaves scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.5 per game, while Valencia’s full last season data is unavailable, but early signs suggest defensive struggles persist.

Form & xG

Alaves' recent form (WWDW) and underlying xG of 1.58 for vs 0.69 against confirm their attacking edge and defensive solidity, despite only 44.8% possession. Valencia’s form (LLLD) and xG of 1.03 for vs 0.93 against reflect their struggles upfront and defensive frailty. Alaves’ 13.5 shots per game with 5 on target contrast with Valencia’s 9.8 shots only 2.8 OT, showing Alaves’ superior chance creation.

Team news & key players

Alaves rely on defenders like N. Tenaglia (7.41 rating, 1G, 1.67 tackles/90) and Pablo Ibáñez (6.87 rating, 1G), while Antonio Blanco contributes 2.01 shots/90 and 0.67 key passes/90. Valencia’s key players include Javier Guerra (6.67 rating, 1.13 shots/90, 1.13 key passes/90) and Pepelu (6.97 rating). However, Valencia’s defense shows discipline issues with Mouctar Diakhaby already on 2 yellows in 225 minutes.

Stats & betting angles

Alaves average 5.3 corners per game, nearly double Valencia’s 3.8, indicating attacking pressure. Fouls and cards favor Alaves (14.5 fouls, 2.5 yellows per game) compared to Valencia’s 9.8 fouls and 1.5 yellows. BTTS stands at 50% for Alaves but only 25% for Valencia this season, suggesting Alaves’ defense is more reliable. Both teams have 50% games over 2.5 goals, but Valencia’s low scoring rate hints at a lower-scoring affair.

Verdict

Given Alaves’ superior form, xG, shots, and defensive record, they are strong favorites. Valencia’s struggles in attack and defense make them vulnerable, especially away. Expect a competitive match with Alaves scoring multiple goals, but Valencia might find the net once. The small sample size this season advises cautious optimism, but last season’s baseline and current stats strongly support an Alaves win with BTTS and over 2.5 goals.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has Alaves performed recently in terms of form and results?

Alaves have a strong recent form of WWDW in their 4 games this season, collecting 10 points and standing 2nd in the league. They score 2.5 goals per game while conceding only 0.75, supported by an xG of 1.58 for and 0.69 against. This indicates both attacking efficiency and defensive solidity. Their possession rate is 44.8%, showing effectiveness despite not dominating possession.

What does the xG data reveal about both teams' attacking and defensive quality?

Alaves' xG this season is 1.58 for and 0.69 against per game, showing solid chance creation and defensive strength. Valencia's xG is lower offensively at 1.03 for but with a higher 0.93 against, indicating they create fewer chances and concede more. The large gap in xG aligns with Alaves’ higher shots per game (13.5 versus 9.8) and better shot accuracy (5 OT vs 2.8 OT).

Who are the key players to watch in this match and what are their per-90 stats?

For Alaves, N. Tenaglia stands out with a 7.41 rating, 1 goal, and 1.67 tackles per 90 minutes, while Antonio Blanco provides 2.01 shots and 0.67 key passes per 90. Pablo Ibáñez also contributes with 1 shot and 0.33 OT per 90. Valencia’s key attacker Javier Guerra has 1.13 shots and 1.13 key passes per 90 but lacks goals so far. Pepelu offers midfield stability with 0.37 key passes per 90.

How vulnerable is Valencia’s defense based on current stats and discipline?

Valencia concedes 2.25 goals per game with an xG against of 0.93, indicating defensive weaknesses. Their players commit fewer fouls (9.8 per game) and receive fewer yellows (1.5 per game) than Alaves, but key defender Mouctar Diakhaby already has 2 yellow cards in just 225 minutes, risking suspension. Overall, Valencia’s defense is leaky and potentially undisciplined under pressure.

Is there a strong rationale for both teams to score (BTTS) in this match?

Alaves have a BTTS rate of 50% this season, while Valencia’s is only 25%. Alaves concede just 0.75 goals per game, stronger defensively, whereas Valencia concedes 2.25 but scores only 0.25 per game. Given Valencia’s low scoring and Alaves’ better defense, BTTS is possible but less certain. The prediction leans towards BTTS Yes due to Valencia’s likely goal despite poor form.

What supports an over/under 2.5 goals bet in this fixture?

Both teams have a 50% rate of over 2.5 goals games this season, but Alaves score 2.5 goals per game while conceding 0.75, and Valencia have a low scoring rate of 0.25 but concede 2.25. The attacking threat from Alaves combined with Valencia’s defensive struggles supports an Over 2.5 bet. The corners and shots stats (Alaves 13.5 shots, 5 OT; Valencia 9.8 shots, 2.8 OT) also suggest a higher-scoring game.

Are there any historical head-to-head trends influencing this prediction?

No recent head-to-head data is available between Alaves and Valencia to directly inform this prediction. Therefore, the analysis relies heavily on this season's form and last season’s baseline for Alaves, while Valencia’s data is limited. This makes the prediction more dependent on current statistical profiles and form rather than historical encounters.

Is there any betting value in backing Alaves given the available stats?

Backing Alaves holds value due to their strong form (10 points, 2nd place), superior xG (1.58 vs 1.03), and better defensive record (0.75 goals conceded vs 2.25). Valencia’s poor form (1 point, last place), low scoring (0.25 goals per game), and disciplinary risks (Diakhaby’s 2 yellows) reduce their chances. The statistical advantage and home factor make Alaves a solid value bet.