Como 1907 VS Parma Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 14, 2026)

Como 1907Como 1907

2 - 1

HT: 1-0

Parma Calcio 1913Parma

Serie A·Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Como 1907 Handicap -1.5

View Reasoning

Como 1907 not only excels in overall performance but also boasts a 40% clean sheet rate, while Parma Calcio 1913 has a disappointing 30% clean sheet rate and struggles to find the back of the net, scoring only 15 goals. The head-to-head stats show Como has won against Parma in 3 out of their last 12 encounters, and with Como's dominant form, a -1.5 handicap bet seems realistic. The odds reflect Como's potential to win by a margin, making this a high-value bet.

Human Analyst

Correct

Como 1907 to win

View Reasoning

Como 1907 is in excellent form with a record of 12 wins out of 20 matches, showcasing their strong attacking prowess with 39 goals scored and only 17 conceded. In contrast, Parma Calcio 1913 struggles defensively with 28 goals conceded and an overall win rate of just 30%. Given Como's home advantage and superior stats, betting on them to win is a strong recommendation.

Both back Como 1907—different markets

Key Stats

Comoper gameParma

1.3

xG for

0.5

1.8

xG against

1.3

59.7

Possession %

44.5

20.3

Shots

8.5

Como — last 5

WWD

Parma — last 5

Team Stats

Comoper gameParma

1.3

xG for

0.5

1.8

xG against

1.3

59.7

Possession %

44.5

20.3

Shots

8.5

Shots on tgt

2.5

Corners

2.5

100

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Como — last 5

WWD

Parma — last 5

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Como	20-11-7	1.7	0.8	19
Parma	11-12-15	0.7	1.2	13

Como 1907 performance

Total Matches

Form

10W7D3L

Avg Scored

2.00

per match

Avg Conceded

1.05

per match

Goals Scored40

Goals Conceded21

Clean Sheets7 (35%)

BTTS65%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.545%

Parma performance

Total Matches

Form

4W7D9L

Avg Scored

0.70

per match

Avg Conceded

1.25

per match

Goals Scored14

Goals Conceded25

Clean Sheets5 (25%)

BTTS40%

Over 2.510%

Over 3.510%

Expected Match Outcome

Como 1907

2-1

(1.6 - 0.9 xG)

Parma

Como 1907

Scores2.00/g

Concedes1.05/g

Parma

Scores0.70/g

Concedes1.25/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

53%

Over 2.5

33%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 2.5

68%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Como wins

Draws

Parma wins

Recent meetings

17 May 2026Como

1–0

Parma

25 Oct 2025Parma

0–0

Como

03 May 2025Parma

0–1

Como

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Lazio	7	6	1	0	+10	19
3	AS Roma	7	5	2	0	+13	17
4	AC Milan	7	4	3	0	+7	15
5	Como	7	4	2	1	+5	14
6	Frosinone	7	4	1	2	+4	13
7	Cagliari	7	4	1	2	-1	13
8	Juventus	7	3	2	2	+1	11
9	Napoli	7	3	1	3	+3	10
10	Torino	7	3	1	3	+1	10
11	Atalanta	7	3	0	4	-1	9
12	Lecce	7	3	0	4	-3	9
13	Sassuolo	7	2	2	3	-2	8
14	Monza	7	2	1	4	-2	7
15	Bologna	7	1	2	4	-4	5
16	Udinese	7	1	1	5	-7	4
17	Genoa	7	1	1	5	-8	4
18	Fiorentina	7	1	1	5	-9	4
19	Parma	7	1	1	5	-9	4
20	Venezia	7	1	0	6	-10	3

Overview

Como currently sit 4th with 7 points from 3 games, showing strong form with 2 wins and 1 draw. Parma, positioned 16th with just 1 point from 2 matches, have struggled to find the net and secure points. Last season, Como scored 1.7 goals per game and conceded 0.8, boasting 19 clean sheets, while Parma managed only 0.7 goals and conceded 1.2 per match with 13 clean sheets. The head-to-head favors Como, winning 4 of the last 6 meetings, including a 1-0 home win in May 2026.

Form & xG

Como’s early season underlying stats show a high scoring rate of 2.33 goals per game but their xG is lower at 1.28, suggesting some finishing overperformance. Defensively, they concede 1.77 xG per game, indicating some vulnerability. Parma’s xG is poor at 0.5 for and 1.26 against, aligning with their 0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Como’s possession dominance (59.7%) and shots (20.3 per game) contrast sharply with Parma’s 44.5% possession and just 8.5 shots, highlighting Como’s control and attacking superiority.

Team News & Key Players

Como’s main attacking threats include T. Douvikas with 2 goals and 3.29 shots per 90, and N. Paz with 1 goal and 2.52 shots per 90. Their midfield creativity is led by Álex Valle (2.33 key passes per 90). Parma lack goal contributions so far; El Bilal Touré has 0.53 shots per 90 but no goals. Defensively, Como’s Trevoh Chalobah averages 2 tackles per 90, while Parma’s Emanuele Valeri has 2.5 tackles per 90 but the team’s defensive record has been shaky.

Stats & Betting Angles

Como’s home dominance and Parma’s poor away form, combined with Como’s 100% BTTS rate this season and Parma’s 0%, suggest a likely BTTS 'Yes'. The match average corners favor Como’s 7 per game against Parma’s 2.5. Over 2.5 goals has hit 67% for Como this season but 0% for Parma, so the attacking prowess of Como should push the game over 2.5. Last season’s defensive solidity for Como (19 clean sheets) versus Parma’s struggles (16 failed to score matches) further supports Como scoring multiple goals.

Verdict

Como’s superior form, attacking metrics, and home advantage make them strong favorites. Parma’s lack of goals and defensive issues suggest they will struggle to keep a clean sheet. The head-to-head history, with Como winning recent meetings 1-0 and 1-1 draws, points to a tight but Como-favored scoreline. Expect a 2-1 victory for Como, with both teams scoring and the total goals over 2.5.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has Como's recent form influenced this matchup?

Como's recent form is strong with 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 2.33 goals per game while conceding 1. Their small sample xG is 1.28 for and 1.77 against, indicating they are slightly outperforming expected goals offensively but conceding more than expected. This contrasts sharply with Parma's 0 points from 2 losses, 0 goals scored, and 1.5 conceded, with an xG of 0.5 for and 1.26 against, showing Como's clear edge in momentum and confidence.

What does the xG data reveal about both teams’ attacking and defensive quality?

Como's xG of 1.28 for and 1.77 against this season, though a small sample, suggests they create decent chances but concede high-quality opportunities. Parma's xG of 0.5 for and 1.26 against reflects poor attacking quality and defensive frailty. Last season, Como averaged 1.7 goals and 0.8 conceded, while Parma managed only 0.7 goals and 1.2 conceded per game, confirming Como’s better baseline both offensively and defensively.

Which key players are likely to impact the game for Como and Parma?

For Como, T. Douvikas leads with 2 goals and 3.29 shots per 90 minutes, supported by N. Paz with 1 goal and 2.52 shots per 90. Álex Valle provides creativity with 2.33 key passes per 90. Parma’s main attacking threat is El Bilal Touré, who has 0.53 shots per 90 but no goals yet. Defensively, Como’s Trevoh Chalobah averages 2 tackles per 90, while Parma’s Emanuele Valeri has 2.5 tackles per 90 but the team’s defensive solidity remains questionable.

How does the defensive frailty of Parma affect the match outlook?

Parma concedes 1.5 goals per game this season with an xG against of 1.26, showing defensive vulnerability. Last season, they conceded 1.2 goals per game and failed to score in 16 matches, indicating offensive struggles. Como's attacking numbers (2.33 goals per game) and home form suggest Parma will likely concede multiple goals, increasing the probability of BTTS and over 2.5 goals.

What is the rationale for expecting BTTS in this fixture?

Como’s BTTS rate is 100% this season with 2.33 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, while Parma’s BTTS is 0% with no goals scored but 1.5 conceded. Last season, Como scored in 29 of 38 games and Parma failed to score in 16. Given Como’s offensive pressure and Parma’s defensive struggles, both teams scoring is highly plausible despite Parma’s scoring issues.

Why is over 2.5 goals a strong possibility in this game?

Como’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 67% of games this season, whereas Parma’s have not exceeded 2.5 goals at all. Como’s attacking output of 2.33 goals per game and Parma’s defensive lapses (1.5 conceded per game) point to multiple goals. The head-to-head includes several 1-1 and 2-1 scorelines, supporting a competitive, goal-rich encounter likely exceeding 2.5 goals.

Is there any betting value based on last season’s baseline and current form?

Considering Como’s superior last-season baseline (1.7 goals scored, 0.8 conceded) and strong current form (7 points, 2.33 goals per game), betting on Como to win and over 2.5 goals offers value. Parma’s poor baseline (0.7 goals, 1.2 conceded) and current struggles (0 points, 0 goals) suggest a low chance of upset. The BTTS Yes option is also valuable given Como’s offensive consistency and Parma’s defensive frailty.