Como 1907 VS Roma Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Oct 11, 2026)

Como 1907Como 1907

0 - 0

HT: 0-0

AS RomaRoma

Serie A·Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

@1.53

View Reasoning

Both teams have a strong tendency to score, with Como 1907 having a 70% BTTS rate and AS Roma at 50%. The attacking capabilities of both teams, combined with their defensive inconsistencies, suggest that both teams are likely to find the back of the net. Additionally, the previous head-to-head matches have shown a balanced scoring pattern, further supporting the likelihood of both teams scoring.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Over 2.5 goals

@1.68

View Reasoning

Como 1907 has showcased a solid attacking form with 37 goals scored in 20 matches, and they have a 55% chance of matches going over 2.5 goals. AS Roma also contributes to high-scoring games, with a 65% rate for over 2.5 goals. Given the history between these teams, with 9 goals scored in their last 4 encounters, betting on over 2.5 goals seems highly favorable.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Comoper gameAS Roma

xG for

2.6

1.7

xG against

61.6

Possession %

57.6

23.2

Shots

20.6

Como — last 5

LWWWW

AS Roma — last 5

DWDWW

Team Stats

Comoper gameAS Roma

xG for

2.6

1.7

xG against

61.6

Possession %

57.6

23.2

Shots

20.6

7.2

Shots on tgt

Corners

5.8

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Como — last 5

LWWWW

AS Roma — last 5

DWDWW

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Como	20-11-7	1.7	0.8	19
AS Roma	23-4-11	1.6	0.8	18

Como 1907 performance

Total Matches

Form

10W6D4L

Avg Scored

1.85

per match

Avg Conceded

1.20

per match

Goals Scored37

Goals Conceded24

Clean Sheets5 (25%)

BTTS70%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.540%

Roma performance

Total Matches

Form

12W5D3L

Avg Scored

2.25

per match

Avg Conceded

1.25

per match

Goals Scored45

Goals Conceded25

Clean Sheets9 (45%)

BTTS50%

Over 2.565%

Over 3.550%

Expected Match Outcome

Como 1907

2-2

(1.6 - 1.7 xG)

Roma

Como 1907

Scores1.85/g

Concedes1.20/g

Roma

Scores2.25/g

Concedes1.25/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

60%

Over 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

45%

Under 2.5

40%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Como wins

Draws

AS Roma wins

Recent meetings

15 Mar 2026Como

2–1

AS Roma

15 Dec 2025AS Roma

1–0

Como

02 Mar 2025AS Roma

2–1

Como

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Inter	9	8	1	0	+15	25
2	Lazio	9	8	1	0	+15	25
3	AS Roma	9	6	3	0	+15	21
4	Como	9	6	2	1	+9	20
5	AC Milan	9	5	3	1	+7	18
6	Frosinone	9	5	2	2	+8	17
7	Napoli	9	4	2	3	+6	14
8	Juventus	9	4	2	3	+1	14
9	Torino	9	4	1	4	0	13
10	Cagliari	9	4	1	4	-5	13
11	Bologna	9	3	2	4	0	11
12	Atalanta	9	3	2	4	-1	11
13	Genoa	9	3	1	5	-5	10
14	Lecce	9	3	0	6	-9	9
15	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	-8	8
16	Monza	9	2	1	6	-6	7
17	Udinese	9	1	2	6	-9	5
18	Fiorentina	9	1	2	6	-10	5
19	Parma	9	1	2	6	-10	5
20	Venezia	9	1	0	8	-13	3

Overview

Como sits 8th with 10 points, while AS Roma leads the table with 13 points after 5 games. Roma's average 2.8 goals per game this season surpass Como's 1.8, but Roma concedes only 0.6 compared to Como's 1.2. Last season, both sides had similar defensive records, conceding 0.8 goals per game. Roma's offense is more potent, with Donyell Malen scoring 6 goals in 4 apps and Paulo Dybala providing 3 assists.

Form & xG

Como's recent form is strong with 4 wins in last 5 (LWWWW) and an xG of 2.0 for vs 1.68 against, indicating decent attacking efficiency. Roma's form is slightly less consistent (DWDWW) but their xG of 2.6 for and 0.98 against reflects a more clinical attack and solid defense. Roma's clean sheet rate this season is 60%, consistent with 18 clean sheets last season.

Team news & key players

Como's key contributors include N. Paz (7.44 rating, 3.38 shots/90) and Assane Diao (7.38 rating, 2.09 shots/90). Roma's attack is spearheaded by Malen (8.08 rating, 4.42 shots/90, 2.84 on target) and Dybala (8.08 rating, 2.81 shots/90, 0.56 on target) with strong creative output (4.5 KP/90 for Dybala). Roma's defense is marshaled by Hermoso (7.4 rating, 3.17 tackles/90) and Mancini (7.15 rating, 2.37 tackles/90).

Stats & betting angles

Como dominates possession (61.6%) but has a lower shot quality (7.2 OT shots) compared to Roma's 7 OT shots per game. Roma's higher fouls (13 per game) and yellow cards (1.6 per game) contrast with Como's 0.8 yellows, indicating a more aggressive approach. BTTS is 80% for Como but only 40% for Roma, suggesting mixed defensive solidity. Over 2.5 goals occurred 60% (Como) and 80% (Roma) of games this season, indicating a likely open match.

Verdict

Despite Como's home advantage and possession edge, Roma's superior attacking firepower and defensive stability from last season and current form give them the edge. The recent H2H shows close matches with goals from both sides. Expect a tight but open game with Roma edging a 2-1 win, aligning with Over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does recent form impact the expected outcome?

Como is in excellent recent form with 4 wins out of 5 (LWWWW), scoring 1.8 goals per game and conceding 1.2. Roma has a more mixed recent record (DWDWW) but scores 2.8 goals per game while conceding just 0.6. Roma's defensive solidity and higher scoring rate suggest they maintain an edge despite Como's momentum.

What does the xG profile tell us about attacking efficiency?

Como's xG is 2.0 for and 1.68 against this season, indicating decent attacking but some defensive vulnerability. Roma's xG is higher at 2.6 for and lower at 0.98 against, showing more clinical finishing and defensive strength. This suggests Roma is more efficient in converting chances and limiting opponents.

Who are the key attackers and their per-90 contributions?

For Como, N. Paz contributes 3.38 shots/90 with 1.06 on target and 2.11 key passes/90. Assane Diao adds 2.09 shots/90 and 3.39 key passes/90. Roma's Donyell Malen leads with 4.42 shots/90 and 2.84 on target, while Paulo Dybala offers 2.81 shots/90 and 4.5 key passes/90, indicating Roma's superior attacking creativity and finishing.

How do defensive frailties influence BTTS prospects?

Como concedes 1.2 goals per game and have 0 clean sheets this season, with an 80% BTTS rate, showing defensive frailty. Roma concedes only 0.6 goals per game with 60% clean sheets but has a lower 40% BTTS, indicating better defense. This suggests Como is more prone to conceding, increasing chances of BTTS.

What supports the over/under 2.5 goals prediction?

Como games have 60% Over 2.5 rate, Roma 80%. Both teams average 1.8 and 2.8 goals scored respectively, with xG also indicating attacking intent. Combined with Roma's defensive solidity but Como's defensive leaks, an Over 2.5 outcome is likely.

What do head-to-head trends suggest about the match?

Recent H2H show close matches: Como won 2-1 in March 2026, Roma won 1-0 and 2-1 in previous clashes, and Como won 2-0 in Dec 2024. All four recent matches featured at least 2 goals with both teams scoring in 3 of them, supporting BTTS and a close scoreline.

Is there value in betting on this match?

Given Roma's superior xG (2.6 vs 2.0) and defensive solidity (0.98 xGA vs 1.68), plus Como's high BTTS rate (80%), betting on Roma to win 2-1 with BTTS and Over 2.5 offers reasonable value. Roma's 60% clean sheet rate also suggests a narrow margin, making the exact score bet promising.