Colorado VS SJ Earthquakes Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Oct 11, 2026)

Colorado Rapids SCColorado

1 - 1

HT: 1-0

San Jose EarthquakesSJ Earthquakes

MLS·Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Colorado Rapids SC to win

@1.98

View Reasoning

Colorado Rapids SC to win is a plausible bet considering their recent form and head-to-head record against San Jose Earthquakes. With a win rate of 44% and having defeated San Jose 5 times in their last 10 encounters, Colorado appears to have the upper hand. Moreover, San Jose's defensive struggles, evidenced by 40 goals conceded, further bolster the Rapids' chances of securing a victory at home.

Human Analyst

Correct

Both Teams to Score

@1.53

View Reasoning

Both Teams to Score is a strong bet given the statistics for both Colorado Rapids SC and San Jose Earthquakes. With San Jose's impressive BTTS rate of 75%, and Colorado's own struggles in defense (22 goals conceded), it seems likely both teams will find the net. Additionally, their recent H2H history shows a total of 21 goals in the last 10 matches, further supporting this prediction.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Colorado Rapidsper gameSan Jose Earthquakes

1.4

xG for

1.8

1.2

xG against

1.4

54.3

Possession %

49.6

11.6

Shots

13.8

Colorado Rapids — last 5

LDWDL

San Jose Earthquakes — last 5

WDWWD

Team Stats

Colorado Rapidsper gameSan Jose Earthquakes

1.4

xG for

1.8

1.2

xG against

1.4

54.3

Possession %

49.6

11.6

Shots

13.8

4.3

Shots on tgt

5.4

4.8

Corners

6.4

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Colorado Rapids — last 5

LDWDL

San Jose Earthquakes — last 5

WDWWD

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Colorado Rapids	11-8-15	1.3	1.6	7
San Jose Earthquakes	11-8-15	1.8	1.9	5

Colorado performance

Total Matches

Form

8W3D9L

Avg Scored

0.95

per match

Avg Conceded

1.20

per match

Goals Scored19

Goals Conceded24

Clean Sheets8 (40%)

BTTS30%

Over 2.535%

Over 3.510%

SJ Earthquakes performance

Total Matches

Form

5W6D9L

Avg Scored

1.45

per match

Avg Conceded

1.95

per match

Goals Scored29

Goals Conceded39

Clean Sheets2 (10%)

BTTS75%

Over 2.560%

Over 3.555%

Expected Match Outcome

Colorado

1-1

(1.4 - 1.3 xG)

SJ Earthquakes

Colorado

Scores0.95/g

Concedes1.20/g

SJ Earthquakes

Scores1.45/g

Concedes1.95/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

53%

Over 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 2.5

53%

Head-to-Head & Form

Colorado Rapids wins

Draws

San Jose Earthquakes wins

Recent meetings

21 May 2026Colorado Rapids

2–0

San Jose Earthquakes

11 May 2025Colorado Rapids

0–2

San Jose Earthquakes

16 Mar 2025San Jose Earthquakes

1–2

Colorado Rapids

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Nashville SC	30	20	7	3	+41	67
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	16	7	7	+32	55
2	Inter Miami	30	15	10	5	+22	55
2	St. Louis City	30	14	9	7	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	14	9	7	+8	51
3	New England Revolution	30	16	4	10	+8	52
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	13	9	8	+10	48
4	Chicago Fire	30	14	6	10	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	13	8	9	+8	47
5	Houston Dynamo	30	13	8	9	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	12	10	9	+15	46
6	Philadelphia Union	30	13	7	10	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	12	5	13	-12	41
7	Seattle Sounders	30	11	9	10	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	10	10	11	-9	40
8	New York Red Bulls	30	10	6	14	-17	36
9	Colorado Rapids	30	11	6	13	0	39
9	FC Cincinnati	29	9	9	11	-10	36
10	Real Salt Lake	30	10	6	14	-3	36
10	Toronto FC	30	8	12	10	-9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	10	5	15	-1	35
11	Portland Timbers	30	9	7	14	-5	34
12	New York City FC	30	8	10	12	+2	34
12	San Diego	30	8	10	12	-3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	8	10	12	-8	34
13	DC United	29	7	12	10	-14	33
14	Austin	30	7	10	13	-18	31
14	Atlanta United FC	30	8	6	16	-14	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	6	4	20	-39	22
15	CF Montreal	30	6	7	17	-24	25

Overview

Colorado Rapids currently sit 8th with 36 points, while San Jose Earthquakes hold 4th place with 45 points in the MLS standings. Historically, their head-to-head matches have been competitive, with Colorado winning 4 of the last 10 encounters and San Jose 4 as well, including a recent 2-0 win for Rapids in May 2026. San Jose’s better position and recent form suggest a slight edge, but Rapids’ home advantage and balanced H2H record promise a tight contest.

Form & xG

This season, Colorado averages 1.38 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game, closely matching their last season baseline of 1.3 scored and 1.6 conceded. Their xG is 1.35 for and 1.23 against, indicating a small overperformance in conceding. San Jose, meanwhile, shows an improved attack with 1.84 goals scored per game and an xG of 1.83, up from last season’s 1.8, while conceding 1.36 (xGA 1.38). San Jose’s form (WDWWD) outshines Rapids’ mixed LDWDL run.

Team News & Key Players

Colorado’s Paxten Aaronson is pivotal with 7 goals and 5 assists, averaging 1.63 shots and 1.91 key passes per 90. Defensive discipline may be an issue, with Ojediran’s 8 yellow cards. San Jose’s Preston Judd leads with 15 goals, 3.09 shots, and 1.85 on-target shots per 90, supported by Beau Leroux’s 4 goals and 6 assists. San Jose’s attack is more potent, but Rapids’ Frederick II and Navarro offer creativity and fouls drawn.

Stats & Betting Angles

Colorado’s BTTS rate is 46%, while San Jose’s is 60%, reflecting San Jose’s stronger attack and relatively leaky defense. Over 2.5 goals occur in 50% of Rapids’ matches and 60% of Earthquakes’. Rapids have a higher possession (54.3%) but San Jose averages more corners (6.4 vs 4.8). Last season, Rapids kept 7 clean sheets compared to 5 for San Jose, but Rapids failed to score 10 times versus just 2 for San Jose, suggesting San Jose’s attack is more consistent.

Verdict

San Jose’s superior scoring rate and form, combined with their higher xG, suggest they will likely score, but Rapids’ home form and defensive resilience mean the match should be competitive. Expect goals from both sides with a final scoreline reflecting a close, attacking game. The balance of last season’s baseline stats and current form points to a 2-1 win for San Jose, aligning with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals trends.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has recent form influenced this matchup?

San Jose Earthquakes have a strong recent form of WDWWD, scoring 1.84 goals per game and conceding 1.36, while Colorado Rapids' form is LDWDL with 1.38 goals scored and 1.46 conceded. San Jose's superior form and higher xG (1.83) compared to Rapids (1.35) give them an attacking edge going into this match.

What does the xG profile suggest about each team's attack and defense?

Colorado Rapids have an xG of 1.35 for and 1.23 against this season, close to their last season baseline of 1.3 scored and 1.6 conceded. San Jose's xG is stronger at 1.83 for and 1.38 against, indicating a more potent attack but slightly leaky defense. This suggests San Jose is more likely to create quality chances.

Who are the key attackers and what are their per-90 stats?

Colorado’s Paxten Aaronson averages 1.63 shots and 1.91 key passes per 90 with 7 goals and 5 assists this season. San Jose’s Preston Judd is their main threat with 3.09 shots, 1.85 on-target shots per 90, and 15 goals. Beau Leroux adds creativity with 1.21 shots and 1.41 key passes per 90, 4 goals and 6 assists.

How vulnerable are the defenses in this matchup?

Colorado concedes 1.46 goals per game this season, slightly better than last season’s 1.6, while San Jose concedes 1.36, marginally better than their 1.9 last season. Rapids have 7 clean sheets last season versus 5 for San Jose, but Rapids also failed to score 10 times compared to only 2 for San Jose, indicating Rapids’ defense can be breached but their attack is less consistent.

Why is BTTS likely in this game?

San Jose’s BTTS rate is 60%, higher than Rapids’ 46%. San Jose’s strong attack (1.84 goals) paired with Rapids conceding 1.46 on average suggests both teams are likely to score. The head-to-head also supports this with recent scorelines like 2-1 and 3-2, showing both teams find the net frequently.

Is over or under 2.5 goals more probable?

Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 50% of Rapids’ matches and 60% of San Jose’s this season, aligning with last season’s averages (Colorado 1.3 scored, 1.6 conceded; San Jose 1.8 scored, 1.9 conceded). The attacking stats and BTTS likelihood support an Over 2.5 scenario.

What does the head-to-head history indicate?

Recent H2H matches show tight, competitive games: Colorado won 2-0 in May 2026, San Jose won 2-0 in May 2025, and there were several 2-1 and 3-2 results. The close scorelines and alternating home wins suggest no clear dominance and a likely close, goal-filled match.

Is there a betting value angle in this fixture?

Given San Jose’s higher xG (1.83 vs 1.35), better form (WDWWD), and strong attacking players like Judd (15 goals), backing a San Jose win with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals offers value. Colorado’s home advantage and defensive resilience keep the scoreline close, supporting a 2-1 correct score prediction with good odds.