Casa Pia VS Santa Clara Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Oct 10, 2026)

Casa Pia ACCasa Pia

0 - 1

HT: 0-0

CD Santa ClaraSanta Clara

Liga Portugal

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

CD Santa Clara to win

@2.14

View Reasoning

CD Santa Clara's strong form with 11 wins and a goal difference of +16 clearly positions them as the favorites against Casa Pia AC, who have struggled with a record of 4 wins and a goal difference of -19. Furthermore, CD Santa Clara has a solid 50% clean sheet rate, which suggests they can effectively neutralize Casa Pia's offense. Given their head-to-head advantage with 3 wins to Casa Pia's 2, this provides a strong case for a Santa Clara victory.

Human Analyst

Correct

Under 2.5 goals

@1.69

View Reasoning

The prediction for Under 2.5 goals is supported by Casa Pia AC's low scoring record, with only 14 goals in 20 matches, resulting in a 35% chance of exceeding 2.5 goals. Additionally, both teams display a BTTS rate of 40%, indicating a tendency to keep games tight and low-scoring. With a history of 12 total goals in 7 H2H matches, it's likely this game will follow a similar trend, suggesting a low-scoring affair.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Casa Piaper gameSanta Clara

0.5

xG for

1.5

1.8

xG against

0.7

Possession %

45.3

10.3

Shots

13.1

Casa Pia — last 5

WLDLL

Santa Clara — last 5

DWWDW

Team Stats

Casa Piaper gameSanta Clara

0.5

xG for

1.5

1.8

xG against

0.7

Possession %

45.3

10.3

Shots

13.1

2.7

Shots on tgt

3.7

4.1

Corners

3.7

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Casa Pia — last 5

WLDLL

Santa Clara — last 5

DWWDW

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Casa Pia	7-13-16	0.9	1.6	9
Santa Clara	9-9-16	0.9	1.2	10

Casa Pia performance

Total Matches

Form

4W5D11L

Avg Scored

0.70

per match

Avg Conceded

1.65

per match

Goals Scored14

Goals Conceded33

Clean Sheets5 (25%)

BTTS40%

Over 2.535%

Over 3.520%

Santa Clara performance

Total Matches

Form

11W6D3L

Avg Scored

1.60

per match

Avg Conceded

0.80

per match

Goals Scored32

Goals Conceded16

Clean Sheets10 (50%)

BTTS40%

Over 2.545%

Over 3.525%

Expected Match Outcome

Casa Pia

1-2

(0.8 - 1.6 xG)

Santa Clara

Casa Pia

Scores0.70/g

Concedes1.65/g

Santa Clara

Scores1.60/g

Concedes0.80/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

40%

Over 2.5

40%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 2.5

60%

Head-to-Head & Form

Casa Pia wins

Draws

Santa Clara wins

Recent meetings

18 Apr 2026Casa Pia

0–0

Santa Clara

06 Dec 2025Santa Clara

1–0

Casa Pia

01 Feb 2025Santa Clara

2–1

Casa Pia

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	9	9	0	0	+17	27
2	Benfica	9	7	1	1	+18	22
3	Sporting CP	9	5	3	1	+10	18
4	Santa Clara	9	5	3	1	+7	18
5	Arouca	9	5	2	2	+5	17
6	Academico Viseu	9	5	2	2	+2	17
7	GIL Vicente	9	4	2	3	+1	14
8	Alverca	9	3	2	4	0	11
9	SC Braga	9	3	2	4	-2	11
10	Moreirense	9	3	2	4	-5	11
11	Famalicao	9	2	4	3	+3	10
12	Estrela	9	2	4	3	-3	10
13	Vitória SC	9	2	2	5	0	8
14	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-10	8
15	Nacional	9	2	1	6	-8	7
16	Casa Pia	9	2	1	6	-12	7
17	Rio Ave	9	2	1	6	-13	7
18	Estoril	9	0	2	7	-10	2

Overview

Casa Pia currently sit 17th with 4 points, struggling to find form, while Santa Clara are 4th with 15 points, showing strong league performance. Last season, Casa Pia averaged 0.9 goals and conceded 1.6 per game, compared to Santa Clara's 0.9 scored and 1.2 conceded. Santa Clara's defensive record is notably better, with 10 clean sheets last season versus Casa Pia's 9. The head-to-head favors Santa Clara, who have won four of the last seven meetings, including a 2-1 away win and a 1-0 recent victory.

Form & xG

This season, Casa Pia average 0.43 goals per game with an xG of 0.52, while conceding 2.29 goals (xGA 1.75), indicating defensive frailty. Santa Clara score 1.57 per game, closely matching their xG of 1.52, with a solid defense conceding only 0.57 goals (xGA 0.72). Casa Pia have won 1 of their last 7 matches (WLDLL), while Santa Clara have a better recent run (DWWDW). Both teams have low possession (~45%), but Santa Clara take more shots per game (13.1 vs 10.3).

Team News & Key Players

Casa Pia's top threat Henrique Araújo averages 2.07 shots/90 and 0.69 on target, scoring 1 goal this season, but overall key players like David Sousa and Silvi have modest attacking output. Santa Clara's José Tavares stands out with 1 goal, 1 assist, 0.97 shots/90, and 1.29 key passes/90, providing creative impetus. Defensively, Santa Clara's Pedro Ferreira averages 3.86 tackles/90 and 1.29 fouls/90, helping maintain their low goals conceded.

Stats & Betting Angles

Casa Pia have a low BTTS rate of 29% this season, while Santa Clara's is 43%, reflecting their stronger defense. Both teams have an Over 2.5 rate of 43%, but Casa Pia's high goals conceded (2.29 per game) suggests a high-scoring game is possible. Last season, Casa Pia conceded 1.6 per game, Santa Clara 1.2. Corners are evenly matched (Casa Pia 4.1/game, Santa Clara 3.7), with high fouls and yellow cards per game (approx. 2.1-2.3 yellows), indicating a potentially physical encounter.

Verdict

Considering Casa Pia's poor defensive record (2.29 goals conceded this season) and Santa Clara's efficient attack (1.57 goals scored), a Santa Clara win with goals from both sides looks likely. Historical H2H favors Santa Clara, who won 1-0 and 2-1 recently. Expect a 2-1 scoreline, BTTS Yes and Over 2.5 goals. Casa Pia's low scoring and Santa Clara's solid defense reduce chances of a high-scoring blowout but support a competitive, goal-involved match.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does recent form influence the expected outcome?

Casa Pia have a poor recent form of WLDLL over 7 games, scoring only 0.43 goals per match and conceding 2.29, while Santa Clara have a stronger form DWWDW, scoring 1.57 and conceding just 0.57. This disparity suggests Santa Clara's momentum and defensive solidity will be decisive.

What does the xG profile tell us about the teams?

Casa Pia’s xG is low at 0.52 with xGA 1.75, indicating poor chance creation and weak defense. Santa Clara’s xG of 1.52 and xGA of 0.72 show they create good chances and defend well. The alignment of Santa Clara’s goals (1.57) with xG suggests efficient finishing.

Which key attacker is most likely to influence the match?

Santa Clara’s José Tavares, with 1 goal, 1 assist, 0.97 shots/90, and 1.29 key passes/90, is their main creative force. Casa Pia’s Henrique Araújo offers 2.07 shots/90 but only 1 goal, indicating less clinical finishing. Tavares’ balanced attacking stats make him the key player.

How vulnerable is Casa Pia defensively?

Casa Pia concede 2.29 goals per game with an xGA of 1.75, significantly worse than Santa Clara’s 0.57 goals conceded. Last season they conceded 1.6 per game. This defensive frailty is highlighted by their low clean sheet rate (14%) and high shots conceded (10.3).

Why is BTTS a reasonable bet here?

Santa Clara’s BTTS rate is 43%, Casa Pia’s 29%. Casa Pia concede over 2 goals per game, while Santa Clara scores 1.57. Historical matches show several 2-1 and 1-0 results, indicating both teams can score. The attacking threat of Henrique Araújo and José Tavares supports BTTS Yes.

What supports the Over 2.5 goals prediction?

Casa Pia concede 2.29 goals per game and Santa Clara scores 1.57, both with an Over 2.5 rate of 43%. Last season, Casa Pia conceded 1.6 goals per game, so defensive struggles persist. The combination of Casa Pia’s weak defense and Santa Clara’s attack increases the likelihood of more than 2.5 goals.

How does the head-to-head history inform the prediction?

In 7 recent meetings, Santa Clara won 4 times, including 2-1 (2025-02-01) and 1-0 (2025-12-06). Casa Pia won 2-1 (2023-01-29) and 2-1 (2019-12-22). The recent trend favors close matches with narrow margins and goals on both sides, supporting a 2-1 outcome with BTTS.

Is there any betting value in this prediction?

Given Casa Pia’s defensive struggles (2.29 conceded) and Santa Clara’s efficient attack (1.57 scored, 0.72 xGA), the 2-1 correct score and BTTS Yes offer value against more conservative bets. Over 2.5 at 43% occurrence is reasonable, but the combination of stats and H2H suggests a competitive, goal-involved match with decent odds.