Burnley VS Derby County Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 19, 2026)

Burnley FCBurnley

1 - 1

HT: 1-0

Derby County FCDerby County

Championship·Turf Moor

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Over 2.5 goals

@1.86

View Reasoning

With a combined O2.5 percentage of 55% for Burnley and 65% for Derby, the likelihood of seeing three or more goals in this match is high. Additionally, both teams have a history of high-scoring encounters, particularly in their last 10 H2H matches which produced 18 goals. Therefore, betting on over 2.5 goals seems a solid choice.

Human Analyst

Correct

Both Teams to Score

@1.73

View Reasoning

Both teams have shown a strong tendency to score. Burnley FC has a BTTS percentage of 80%, while Derby County FC has a BTTS percentage of 60%. Given their recent form and the historical context where Burnley has a solid advantage in H2H with 6 wins, it's likely both teams will find the net in this matchup.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Burnleyper gameDerby

1.4

xG for

1.6

xG against

1.4

50.3

Possession %

47.8

13.8

Shots

10.5

Burnley — last 5

DLDLL

Derby — last 5

LLWLD

Team Stats

Burnleyper gameDerby

1.4

xG for

1.6

xG against

1.4

50.3

Possession %

47.8

13.8

Shots

10.5

3.7

Shots on tgt

3.2

4.8

Corners

5.8

100

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Burnley — last 5

DLDLL

Derby — last 5

LLWLD

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Burnley	0-0-0	0	0	0
Derby	20-9-17	1.5	1.3	12

Burnley performance

Total Matches

Form

0W9D11L

Avg Scored

0.95

per match

Avg Conceded

1.90

per match

Goals Scored19

Goals Conceded38

Clean Sheets1 (5%)

BTTS80%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.545%

Derby County performance

Total Matches

Form

6W2D12L

Avg Scored

1.20

per match

Avg Conceded

1.55

per match

Goals Scored24

Goals Conceded31

Clean Sheets4 (20%)

BTTS60%

Over 2.565%

Over 3.520%

Expected Match Outcome

Burnley

1-2

(1.3 - 1.5 xG)

Derby County

Burnley

Scores0.95/g

Concedes1.90/g

Derby County

Scores1.20/g

Concedes1.55/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

70%

Over 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 2.5

40%

Head-to-Head & Form

Burnley wins

Draws

Derby wins

Recent meetings

26 Aug 2025Burnley

2–1

Derby

08 Apr 2025Derby

0–0

Burnley

10 Dec 2024Burnley

0–0

Derby

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	11	7	2	2	+8	23
2	West Ham	11	6	4	1	+18	22
3	Middlesbrough	11	6	4	1	+6	22
4	Birmingham	11	5	5	1	+9	20
5	West Brom	11	6	2	3	+3	20
6	Stoke City	11	6	1	4	+2	19
7	Wolves	11	5	3	3	+3	18
8	Southampton	11	6	3	2	+11	17
9	QPR	11	4	5	2	+3	17
10	Blackburn	11	4	3	4	+1	15
11	Sheffield Utd	11	4	3	4	+1	15
12	Millwall	11	4	3	4	0	15
13	Portsmouth	11	4	3	4	0	15
14	Wrexham	11	3	5	3	-1	14
15	Bolton	11	4	2	5	-3	14
16	Bristol City	11	4	2	5	-3	14
17	Charlton	11	3	5	3	-5	14
18	Lincoln	11	3	3	5	-10	12
19	Cardiff	11	2	5	4	+1	11
20	Watford	11	3	2	6	-9	11
21	Norwich	11	3	0	8	-4	9
22	Burnley	11	1	5	5	-5	8
23	Derby	11	1	3	7	-11	6
24	Preston	11	1	1	9	-15	4

Overview

Burnley and Derby meet with both teams struggling early in the season, positioned 23rd and 22nd respectively with 3 and 4 points from 6 games. Burnley concedes 2.17 goals per game this season, while Derby concedes 1.83, indicating defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Last season, Derby had a solid baseline with 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded per game, while Burnley has no last-season data in this competition, making current form a key guide.

Form & xG

Burnley's recent form (DLDLL) reflects their struggles, scoring 1.17 goals per game with an xG of 1.38, conceding more than expected (1.62 xGA). Derby's form (LLWLD) is slightly better, scoring 0.83 goals per game from an xG of 1.03 and conceding 1.43 expected goals. Both teams' xG profiles suggest defensive frailty, with Burnley conceding slightly more than xGA, and Derby underperforming in attack.

Team news & key players

Burnley's top contributors include U. Raghouber (0.98 shots/90, 0.49 on target/90, 1 goal) and A. Ramsey (2.68 shots/90, 0.45 OT/90, 1 goal). Derby relies on Bobby Clark, who has 1 goal and 2 assists, averaging 1.54 shots and key passes per 90. Defensively, both sides have disciplinary issues, with Burnley averaging 2.33 yellow cards per game and Derby 2.5, potentially impacting player availability.

Stats & betting angles

Burnley averages 4.8 corners per game, while Derby averages 5.8, both below league match averages (9 and 12). Burnley has a 100% BTTS rate this season compared to Derby's 33%, but Derby's last season baseline suggests better defensive capability. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 67% of games for both teams, supporting expectations of a match with multiple goals. Burnley has yet to keep a clean sheet this season; Derby has 17% CS rate.

Verdict

Given both teams' defensive weaknesses and attacking outputs, a high-scoring game with goals at both ends is likely. Burnley's superior shot volume and BTTS rate suggest they will find the net, while Derby's last season form and Bobby Clark's attacking presence hint at at least one goal. Expect an open game with at least three goals, favoring a narrow Burnley victory based on home advantage and recent H2H results.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does recent form impact this Burnley vs Derby match?

Burnley has a poor recent form with DLDLL, scoring 1.17 goals per game but conceding 2.17, while Derby's LLWLD shows slightly better defensive resilience, conceding 1.83 goals per game. Burnley's 0% clean sheet rate and Derby's 17% suggest both are vulnerable defensively. This form points to a match likely featuring goals at both ends.

What do xG stats reveal about the attacking and defensive strengths of both teams?

Burnley has an xG of 1.38 but concedes 1.62 xGA per game, indicating they allow more quality chances than they create. Derby's xG is 1.03 with 1.43 xGA, showing underperformance in attack and moderate defensive fragility. Both teams' xG profiles suggest a contest where defensive lapses could lead to multiple goals.

Who are the key attackers and what are their per-90 contributions?

Burnley's A. Ramsey leads with 2.68 shots/90 and 0.45 on target/90, scoring 1 goal. U. Raghouber contributes 0.98 shots/90 and 0.49 OT/90 with 1 goal. Derby's Bobby Clark is the standout with 1.54 shots/90, 0.38 OT/90, and 3 goal contributions (1G, 2A). These players will be crucial in breaking down defenses.

How vulnerable are the defenses of Burnley and Derby?

Burnley concedes 2.17 goals per game and has 0 clean sheets this season, indicating defensive frailty. Derby concedes 1.83 goals per game with a 17% clean sheet rate, better but still vulnerable. Both teams commit over 2 yellow cards per game, possibly disrupting defensive stability.

What justifies the BTTS (both teams to score) expectation?

Burnley has a 100% BTTS rate this season, scoring 1.17 and conceding 2.17 goals per game. Derby's 33% BTTS rate is lower, but last season they scored 1.5 per game with 1.3 conceded. The attacking contributions from Ramsey, Raghouber, and Clark increase the likelihood both sides score.

Why is over/under 2.5 goals set at over 2.5 for this match?

Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 67% of their matches this season. Burnley concedes 2.17 goals per game and Derby 1.83, combined with xG data suggesting defensive lapses. Historical H2H also includes 2-1 and 4-1 results, supporting a high-scoring expectation.

Are there any betting value angles in this fixture?

Burnley’s 100% BTTS rate and higher shot volume (13.8 vs 10.5) contrast with Derby’s lower BTTS and defensive solidity from last season. The home advantage and recent 2-1 H2H win give Burnley an edge. Betting on Burnley to win 2-1 with BTTS and over 2.5 goals offers value given defensive vulnerabilities and attacking potential.