Burnley VS Charlton Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Oct 13, 2026)

Burnley FCBurnley

2 - 2

HT: 1-0

Charlton Athletic FCCharlton

Championship·Turf Moor

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Charlton Athletic FC to win

@5.70

View Reasoning

Charlton Athletic FC is favored to win based on their current form, with a record of 8 wins compared to Burnley FC's 0 wins, despite both teams being in the same league. Charlton also has a better goal differential (21GF/29GA) compared to Burnley's poor record of 20GF/38GA. Historical data shows that Charlton has won against Burnley in 1 out of the last 6 encounters, but with Burnley's current struggles, Charlton's chances of winning are significantly enhanced.

Human Analyst

Correct

Both Teams to Score

@1.83

View Reasoning

Both Teams to Score is a strong bet given that Burnley FC has an impressive BTTS percentage of 85%, indicating they frequently find the net despite their struggles. Additionally, Charlton Athletic FC has a BTTS rate of 55%, showing they also have a tendency to score. With prior head-to-head matches yielding 15 goals in 6 encounters, this match is likely to see both teams contributing on the scoreboard.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Burnleyper gameCharlton

1.4

xG for

0.7

1.6

xG against

1.6

49.4

Possession %

37.9

13.4

Shots

9.6

Burnley — last 5

DLDLD

Charlton — last 5

LDDLD

Team Stats

Burnleyper gameCharlton

1.4

xG for

0.7

1.6

xG against

1.6

49.4

Possession %

37.9

13.4

Shots

9.6

3.8

Shots on tgt

2.6

4.9

Corners

4.4

100

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Burnley — last 5

DLDLD

Charlton — last 5

LDDLD

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Burnley	0-0-0	0	0	0
Charlton	13-14-19	1	1.3	13

Burnley performance

Total Matches

Form

1W10D9L

Avg Scored

1.15

per match

Avg Conceded

1.75

per match

Goals Scored23

Goals Conceded35

Clean Sheets2 (10%)

BTTS80%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.545%

Charlton performance

Total Matches

Form

8W5D7L

Avg Scored

1.05

per match

Avg Conceded

1.45

per match

Goals Scored21

Goals Conceded29

Clean Sheets6 (30%)

BTTS55%

Over 2.550%

Over 3.525%

Expected Match Outcome

Burnley

1-1

(1.3 - 1.4 xG)

Charlton

Burnley

Scores1.15/g

Concedes1.75/g

Charlton

Scores1.05/g

Concedes1.45/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

68%

Over 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 2.5

48%

Head-to-Head & Form

Burnley wins

Draws

Charlton wins

Recent meetings

07 May 2016Charlton

0–3

Burnley

19 Dec 2015Burnley

4–0

Charlton

22 Mar 2014Charlton

0–3

Burnley

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Middlesbrough	13	8	4	1	+13	28
2	Swansea	13	8	2	3	+7	26
3	Wolves	13	7	3	3	+7	24
4	West Brom	13	7	3	3	+5	24
5	Southampton	13	8	3	2	+15	23
6	Birmingham	13	6	5	2	+10	23
7	Stoke City	13	7	2	4	+4	23
8	West Ham	13	6	4	3	+15	22
9	QPR	13	5	5	3	+5	20
10	Sheffield Utd	13	5	4	4	+2	19
11	Portsmouth	13	5	4	4	+1	19
12	Millwall	13	5	3	5	+2	18
13	Blackburn	13	5	3	5	-1	18
14	Bristol City	13	5	3	5	-2	18
15	Norwich	13	5	0	8	-1	15
16	Lincoln	13	4	3	6	-9	15
17	Cardiff	13	3	5	5	-1	14
18	Wrexham	13	3	5	5	-4	14
19	Bolton	13	4	2	7	-8	14
20	Charlton	13	3	5	5	-10	14
21	Watford	13	3	2	8	-11	11
22	Burnley	13	1	6	6	-8	9
23	Derby	13	1	4	8	-14	7
24	Preston	13	1	2	10	-17	5

Overview

Burnley, currently bottom of the table with 4 points from 8 matches, face mid-table Charlton, who sit 9th with 12 points. Burnley have struggled defensively this season, conceding 2.13 goals per game, while Charlton's defense has been tighter, allowing 1.25 goals per match. Historically, Burnley have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning the last five encounters by margins of at least three goals.

Form & xG

Burnley's recent form is inconsistent (DLDLD), scoring 1.13 goals per game but conceding 2.13, with an xG of 1.38 for and 1.62 against. Charlton's form is similar (LDDLD), scoring less at 0.88 goals per game with an xG of 0.7 for, conceding 1.25 goals with 1.57 xGA. Burnley's 100% BTTS rate contrasts with Charlton's 50%, indicating Burnley games reliably feature goals at both ends.

Team news & key players

Burnley rely on Josh Laurent (1 goal, 1.2 shots/90, 0.51 OT/90) and Oliver Sonne (0.74 shots/90, 0.18 OT/90). Charlton's key threats include Karlan Grant (1 goal, 1 assist, 1.39 shots/90, 0.56 OT/90) and Lloyd Jones (2 goals, 0.75 shots/90, 0.5 OT/90). Defensively, Charlton's Amari'i Bell averages 2.46 tackles/90, helping keep 13 clean sheets last season compared to Burnley's 0 in this campaign.

Stats & betting angles

Burnley average 4.9 corners per game, slightly edging Charlton's 4.4, while Burnley commit 10.6 fouls per game compared to Charlton's 12. Burnley have received 2.38 yellow cards per game versus Charlton's 1.38, suggesting a more aggressive approach. Over 2.5 goals hit 63% in Burnley games and 50% in Charlton fixtures, with Burnley matches always seeing BTTS, making BTTS and over 2.5 goals viable bets.

Verdict

Despite Burnley's poor league position, their superior historical dominance and attacking metrics suggest a narrow home victory. Charlton's defensive solidity and lower scoring rate imply they will score but struggle to keep Burnley out. Expect a 2-1 scoreline with goals at both ends and over 2.5 goals, consistent with Burnley's 100% BTTS rate and high conceding average.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has Burnley's recent form impacted their goal-scoring and conceding stats?

Burnley’s recent form (DLDLD) shows inconsistency, scoring 1.13 goals per game but conceding 2.13. Their xG of 1.38 for and 1.62 against suggests defensive vulnerabilities despite decent attacking chances. The 100% BTTS rate confirms every match has seen both teams score, highlighting defensive frailty as a key concern.

What does the xG profile reveal about Charlton’s attacking and defensive capabilities?

Charlton’s xG is low at 0.7 for and 1.57 against, reflecting their modest attack and relatively stronger defense. They average 0.88 goals per game, slightly above the xG, suggesting some finishing efficiency. Their possession at 37.9% indicates a counter-attacking style, while conceding 1.25 goals per game matches their xGA.

Which key players are likely to influence the match outcome?

Josh Laurent (Burnley) with 1.2 shots/90 and 0.51 on-target per 90 mins, and Karlan Grant (Charlton) with 1.39 shots/90 and 0.56 OT/90, are primary attacking threats. Lloyd Jones (Charlton) adds goal threat with 2 goals and 0.75 shots/90. Defensively, Charlton’s Amari'i Bell’s 2.46 tackles/90 could disrupt Burnley’s rhythm.

How does defensive frailty impact both teams’ performances?

Burnley concedes 2.13 goals per game with an xGA of 1.62, indicating defensive issues. Charlton concedes less at 1.25 goals (xGA 1.57), supported by 13 clean sheets last season. Burnley’s 0 clean sheets this season highlight their defensive struggles, suggesting Charlton may find opportunities to score despite their own defensive vulnerabilities.

Why is BTTS a strong betting angle for this match?

Burnley’s matches have a 100% BTTS rate this season, with 1.13 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game. Charlton’s BTTS rate is 50%. Given Burnley’s defensive frailty and Charlton’s ability to score (0.88 goals per game), it’s likely both teams will score, aligning with historical goal-heavy encounters.

What justifies betting on over 2.5 goals in this fixture?

Burnley’s games have gone over 2.5 goals 63% of the time, while Charlton’s do so 50%. Burnley concede an average of 2.13 goals and scores 1.13, indicating open play. The recent high-margin Burnley wins in head-to-heads (4-0, 3-0) also suggest a match prone to multiple goals.

How do historical head-to-head results influence the match expectation?

Burnley has won the last five meetings against Charlton with large margins (3-0, 4-0, 3-0, 3-0, 1-0). This dominance suggests Burnley’s style and quality historically overwhelm Charlton, supporting a prediction of a Burnley win with multiple goals and BTTS.

Is there betting value in this match prediction?

Given Burnley’s poor league position but historical dominance and BTTS consistency, betting on a 2-1 Burnley win with BTTS and over 2.5 goals offers value. Charlton’s defensive solidity lowers odds on a clean sheet, making BTTS and multiple goals a safer, value-driven choice.