Dortmund VS SC Paderborn Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 12, 2026)

Borussia DortmundDortmund

3 - 0

HT: 1-0

SC Paderborn 07SC Paderborn

Bundesliga·Signal Iduna Park

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

SC Paderborn 07 has a high BTTS rate of 70%, indicating that they frequently score in matches, even against stronger opponents. Given Borussia Dortmund's 50% BTTS rate, it's reasonable to expect both teams to find the back of the net in this match, especially considering their history of high-scoring encounters. Thus, betting on Both Teams to Score presents a strong opportunity.

Human Analyst

Correct

Over 2.5 goals

View Reasoning

Considering Borussia Dortmund's impressive attacking stats with 45 goals scored this season and a high Over 2.5 goals rate of 65%, it's likely that this match will see multiple goals. Additionally, SC Paderborn 07 has contributed to a high total of goals in their past encounters, as evidenced by the 33 goals scored in their last six meetings. Therefore, betting on Over 2.5 goals is a solid choice.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Borussia Dortmundper gameSC Paderborn 07

1.5

xG for

0.7

0.9

xG against

1.2

Possession %

15.5

Shots

Borussia Dortmund — last 5

SC Paderborn 07 — last 5

Team Stats

Borussia Dortmundper gameSC Paderborn 07

1.5

xG for

0.7

0.9

xG against

1.2

Possession %

15.5

Shots

Shots on tgt

1.5

Corners

3.5

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Borussia Dortmund — last 5

SC Paderborn 07 — last 5

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Borussia Dortmund	22-7-5	2.1	1	15
SC Paderborn 07	1-1-0	1	0.5	1

Dortmund performance

Total Matches

Form

14W1D5L

Avg Scored

2.25

per match

Avg Conceded

1.15

per match

Goals Scored45

Goals Conceded23

Clean Sheets8 (40%)

BTTS50%

Over 2.565%

Over 3.550%

SC Paderborn performance

Total Matches

Form

9W6D5L

Avg Scored

1.75

per match

Avg Conceded

1.50

per match

Goals Scored35

Goals Conceded30

Clean Sheets4 (20%)

BTTS70%

Over 2.560%

Over 3.535%

Expected Match Outcome

Dortmund

2-1

(1.9 - 1.4 xG)

SC Paderborn

Dortmund

Scores2.25/g

Concedes1.15/g

SC Paderborn

Scores1.75/g

Concedes1.50/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

60%

Over 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

43%

Under 2.5

38%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Borussia Dortmund wins

Draws

SC Paderborn 07 wins

Recent meetings

02 Feb 2021Borussia Dortmund

3–2

SC Paderborn 07

28 Aug 2020Borussia Dortmund

1–1

SC Paderborn 07

31 May 2020SC Paderborn 07

1–6

Borussia Dortmund

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	6	4	2	0	+17	14
2	Borussia Dortmund	6	4	2	0	+7	14
3	SC Freiburg	6	4	1	1	+9	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	6	4	1	1	+7	13
5	FSV Mainz 05	6	3	1	2	+4	10
6	SV Elversberg	6	3	1	2	+1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	3	0	3	+5	9
8	Werder Bremen	6	2	3	1	0	9
9	Hamburger SV	6	3	0	3	-9	9
10	FC Augsburg	6	2	2	2	+4	8
11	Eintracht Frankfurt	6	2	2	2	-6	8
12	1. FC Köln	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	VfB Stuttgart	6	2	0	4	-2	6
14	1899 Hoffenheim	6	2	0	4	-3	6
15	FC Schalke 04	6	1	2	3	-3	5
16	SC Paderborn 07	6	1	2	3	-4	5
17	Union Berlin	6	1	2	3	-12	5
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Overview

Borussia Dortmund currently sit 3rd in the Bundesliga with 6 points from 2 games, while SC Paderborn 07 are 12th with just 1 point from 2 matches. Dortmund's last full season baseline shows 2.1 goals scored per game and 1 conceded, with 15 clean sheets in 34 games. Paderborn, with limited Bundesliga experience last season (only 2 games), averaged 1 goal and 0.5 conceded per game. Historically, Dortmund dominate head-to-head, including a 7-1 win in 2015 and a recent 3-2 victory in 2021.

Form & xG

This season, Dortmund have won both games, scoring 2.5 goals per game with an xG of 1.53, conceding 0.91 xG per match. Paderborn have drawn and lost, scoring 0 goals with an xG of 0.73 and conceding 1.23 xG on average. Dortmund’s possession sits at 48%, slightly less than Paderborn’s 54%, but Dortmund generate more shots (15.5 per game) and corners (3 per game). Last season's full data suggests Dortmund's attacking output and defensive solidity are far superior.

Team news & key players

Dortmund’s star attacker S. Guirassy has 2 goals and 1 assist in 2 games, shooting 3.56 times per 90 with 2.03 on target, rating 8.44. Jobe Bellingham contributes defensively with 2.5 tackles per 90. Paderborn’s Laurin Curda impresses defensively with 4 tackles per 90 and averages 3 shots per 90 but hasn’t scored yet. Paderborn’s attack struggles as key players have low per-90 KP and no goals, highlighting Dortmund’s upper hand.

Stats & betting angles

Dortmund’s last season saw 15 clean sheets and only 2 games without scoring, reflecting defensive strength and consistent attack. Paderborn kept 1 clean sheet in limited Bundesliga exposure. Dortmund’s 50% BTTS and Over 2.5 this season align with last season’s 2.1 goals per game. Paderborn’s 0% BTTS and Over 2.5 this season suggest a low scoring side. Head-to-head data shows frequent high-scoring matches, with 3-2 and 3-3 results recently, favoring Over 2.5 and BTTS.

Verdict

Given Dortmund’s superior attacking metrics, defensive record, and recent form, they are clear favorites. Paderborn’s limited scoring and defensive frailty suggest Dortmund will score multiple goals. The historical head-to-head trend supports a competitive but high-scoring game. Expect Dortmund to win 2-1 with both teams scoring and the match going Over 2.5 goals.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has Borussia Dortmund’s recent form influenced their expected performance?

Borussia Dortmund has won both games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per game with an xG of 1.53 and conceding 0.91 xG. Their last season baseline of 2.1 goals scored and 1 conceded per game supports sustained offensive and defensive quality. This strong start suggests Dortmund will continue to dominate against Paderborn, who have only 1 point and a lower xG profile.

What does the xG data reveal about both teams’ attacking and defensive strengths?

Dortmund’s xG of 1.53 for and 0.91 against per game shows a strong attack and solid defense. Paderborn’s xG of 0.73 for and 1.23 against indicates weaker offense and defensive vulnerability. Last season, Dortmund scored 2.1 and conceded 1 per game, whereas Paderborn averaged 1 scored and 0.5 conceded. This suggests Dortmund’s attack is more potent and defense more resilient.

Who are the key attackers and how do their per-90 stats impact the match?

Borussia Dortmund’s S. Guirassy leads with 3.56 shots and 2.03 on target per 90 minutes, plus 1.53 key passes, contributing 2 goals and 1 assist in 2 games. Paderborn’s Laurin Curda shoots 3 times per 90 but hasn’t scored. Guirassy’s high shooting and assist rate indicate Dortmund’s offensive edge, while Paderborn’s attackers lack clinical finishing.

What defensive weaknesses might influence both teams to concede goals?

Paderborn concedes 1.23 xG per game and has only 1 clean sheet last season, showing defensive frailty. Dortmund concedes 0.91 xG and had 15 clean sheets last season, indicating better defense but still concedes occasionally (50% BTTS). These stats suggest both teams could concede, especially Paderborn against Dortmund’s strong attack.

Why is BTTS (both teams to score) likely in this match?

Dortmund’s 50% BTTS rate this season and last season’s 2 failed-to-score games in 34 suggest they usually score and concede. Paderborn’s 0% BTTS this season is limited sample, but last season they failed to score only once in 2 games. Head-to-head matches often see both teams scoring (e.g., 3-2, 3-3), reinforcing BTTS likelihood.

What justifies an Over 2.5 goals prediction for this fixture?

Dortmund averages 2.1 goals per game last season and 2.5 this season, with 15 clean sheets but also enough conceded goals for BTTS. Paderborn concedes 0.5 goals per game last season but has conceded 1.23 xG this season. Head-to-head history includes high scoring games like 7-1 and 3-3. This data supports Over 2.5 goals.

How do historical head-to-head results influence betting value?

Recent Dortmund-Paderborn matches show high scoring, e.g. 3-2 (2021), 3-3 (2019), and 7-1 (2015). Dortmund dominate but concede goals often. This suggests value in Over 2.5 and BTTS bets. Dortmund’s strong baseline and Paderborn’s defensive weaknesses increase confidence. Low BTTS and Over 2.5 rates for Paderborn this season reflect small sample, so betting on Dortmund’s attack is advised.