AZ VS Willem II Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 11, 2026)

AZAZ

1 - 1

HT: 1-0

Willem II TilburgWillem II

Eredivisie·AFAS Stadion

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Willem II Tilburg has struggled defensively, allowing 13 goals in just 4 matches, which contributes to a 75% rate for both teams scoring in their games. Meanwhile, AZ's attacking prowess means they have scored in most of their matches, leading to a BTTS rate of 55%. The combination of these factors suggests that both teams are likely to find the net in this encounter.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Over 2.5 goals

View Reasoning

AZ has a strong attacking record with 40 goals scored and a 60% rate for over 2.5 goals in their matches. In addition, Willem II Tilburg's games have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of their matches this season, which suggests a high-scoring game is likely. Given the historical H2H record of 47 total goals in 15 matches, this bet is well-supported.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

AZ Alkmaarper gameWillem II

2.9

xG for

1.6

xG against

2.3

57.3

Possession %

20.8

Shots

11.3

AZ Alkmaar — last 5

WWWW

Willem II — last 5

DLL

Team Stats

AZ Alkmaarper gameWillem II

2.9

xG for

1.6

xG against

2.3

57.3

Possession %

20.8

Shots

11.3

Shots on tgt

2.7

10.3

Corners

BTTS %

100

Over 2.5 %

100

Clean sheet %

AZ Alkmaar — last 5

WWWW

Willem II — last 5

DLL

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
AZ Alkmaar	--	–	–
Willem II	0-0-0	0	0	0

AZ performance

Total Matches

Form

11W5D4L

Avg Scored

2.00

per match

Avg Conceded

1.20

per match

Goals Scored40

Goals Conceded24

Clean Sheets7 (35%)

BTTS55%

Over 2.560%

Over 3.540%

Willem II performance

Total Matches

Form

0W1D3L

Avg Scored

1.00

per match

Avg Conceded

3.25

per match

Goals Scored4

Goals Conceded13

Clean Sheets0 (0%)

BTTS75%

Over 2.5100%

Over 3.575%

Expected Match Outcome

3-1

(2.6 - 1.1 xG)

Willem II

Scores2.00/g

Concedes1.20/g

Willem II

Scores1.00/g

Concedes3.25/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

65%

Over 2.5

80%

Over 3.5

58%

Under 2.5

20%

Head-to-Head & Form

AZ Alkmaar wins

Draws

Willem II wins

Recent meetings

02 Feb 2025Willem II

0–2

AZ Alkmaar

10 Nov 2024AZ Alkmaar

1–2

Willem II

20 Mar 2022Willem II

2–2

AZ Alkmaar

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Feyenoord	9	7	2	0	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	6	2	1	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	6	1	2	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	5	3	1	+15	18
5	Twente	9	5	2	2	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	4	3	2	-1	15
7	Groningen	9	4	2	3	+3	14
8	Heerenveen	9	3	3	3	+4	12
9	GO Ahead Eagles	9	2	5	2	-1	11
10	Excelsior	9	3	2	4	-2	11
11	Utrecht	9	3	2	4	-10	11
12	NEC Nijmegen	9	2	4	3	-1	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	2	3	4	-6	9
14	Cambuur	9	2	3	4	-8	9
15	PEC Zwolle	9	2	1	6	-12	7
16	Telstar	9	1	3	5	-8	6
17	ADO Den Haag	9	1	3	5	-9	6
18	Willem II	9	0	2	7	-17	2

Overview

AZ Alkmaar currently lead the Eredivisie with 15 points, showcasing a strong start. In contrast, Willem II sit firmly at the bottom with just 1 point, struggling to gain momentum. AZ's dominance is reflected in possession (57.3%) and goal output (3.25 per game), whereas Willem II have only 34% possession and concede 3.33 goals per game. Historical head-to-head results favor AZ, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings, including a 2-0 win in February 2025.

Form & xG

AZ Alkmaar boast a perfect 4W form this season with an impressive xG of 2.87 per game, conceding only 0.99. Conversely, Willem II’s form is poor (DLL), with an xG deficit (1.55 for, 2.26 against). AZ’s attacking stats include 20.8 shots per game with 8 on target, compared to Willem II’s 11.3 shots and just 2.7 on target. AZ’s defensive solidity is evident from their 50% clean sheet rate, while Willem II have none.

Team News & Key Players

AZ’s standout is Ro-Zangelo Daal, with 3 goals and 1.84 shots on target per 90, supported by Peer Koopmeiners creating 2.28 key passes per 90. Willem II rely on Devin Haen, who averages 2 shots and 1 key pass per 90, scoring 2 goals so far. Defensively, AZ’s Jari De Busser has yet to concede a card, while Willem II’s Nathan Tjoe-A-On has 1 yellow and leads in key passes (1.84/90).

Stats & Betting Angles

AZ’s dominance in corners (10.3 per game) versus Willem II’s 4 suggests territorial control. BTTS stands at 50% for AZ and 100% for Willem II, indicating both teams find the net regularly. Over 2.5 goals have occurred in 50% of AZ’s matches and 100% of Willem II’s games, reinforcing an expectation of multiple goals. AZ’s possession and xG superiority create a strong value angle for a home win with over 2.5 goals and BTTS.

Verdict

Considering AZ Alkmaar's league-leading form, superior attacking metrics (xG 2.87 vs 1.55), and historical H2H advantage, they are heavily favored. Willem II’s defensive frailty and low possession make a clean sheet unlikely. Expect a high-scoring match with both teams scoring. A 2-1 AZ win aligns with statistical trends, supported by key players’ per-90 contributions and season baselines.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has AZ Alkmaar's recent form impacted their goal-scoring?

AZ Alkmaar’s recent form is impeccable with 4 wins in 4 games, averaging 3.25 goals per game and an xG of 2.87. This high output is backed by 20.8 shots per game, including 8 on target, indicating efficient finishing and strong offensive pressure.

What does the xG profile suggest about Willem II's attacking and defensive performance?

Willem II’s xG profile is concerning: 1.55 xG for but conceding 2.26 xG against per game. They average 11.3 shots with only 2.7 on target, indicating limited attacking threat. Defensively, conceding over 2 goals expected per game shows significant frailty.

Which key attackers should be watched in this match?

AZ’s Ro-Zangelo Daal leads with 3 goals and 1.84 shots on target per 90 minutes, supported by Peer Koopmeiners with 2.28 key passes per 90. Willem II’s Devin Haen averages 2 shots and 1.33 key passes per 90, scoring 2 goals, making these players pivotal in attack.

How vulnerable is Willem II's defense?

Willem II concede an average of 3.33 goals per game with an xG against of 2.26, reflecting defensive frailty. Their low possession (34%) and only 4 corners per game further suggest they struggle to control matches and limit chances, making them vulnerable to AZ’s strong attack.

Why is BTTS likely in this fixture?

BTTS is 50% for AZ and 100% for Willem II this season, indicating both teams regularly score. Willem II’s defensive struggles and AZ’s attacking efficiency (xG 2.87) increase the likelihood of goals at both ends, making BTTS a strong betting angle.

What supports the over 2.5 goals prediction?

Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 50% of AZ’s games and 100% of Willem II’s this season. AZ’s 3.25 goals per game and Willem II’s 3.33 conceded per game, combined with high shot volumes and corner disparities, support a high-scoring match.

How do the head-to-head trends influence this match?

In recent H2H, AZ has won 4 of the last 6 matches, including a 2-0 win in 2025 and a 4-1 in 2021, indicating their historical dominance. Willem II’s rare wins are often high-scoring, reflecting an open game pattern that supports over 2.5 goals and BTTS.

Is there betting value in backing AZ Alkmaar to win?

Given AZ’s league leadership, superior xG (2.87 vs 1.55), and home advantage with strong possession (57.3%), backing AZ to win offers value. Willem II’s defensive issues and poor form make an upset unlikely, enhancing confidence in an AZ victory.