Atalanta VS Venezia FC Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Oct 12, 2026)

Atalanta BCAtalanta

3 - 1

HT: 3-1

Venezia FCVenezia FC

Serie A·New Balance Arena

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Both Teams to Score

@1.61

View Reasoning

Both Teams to Score is a viable prediction considering Venezia FC's BTTS rate of 60%, along with Atalanta BC's 50% BTTS rate. Their attacking statistics show that Venezia has scored 45 goals this season, while Atalanta has netted 25, suggesting both teams are capable of finding the back of the net. Given the historical context where Atalanta has dominated the head-to-head record, Venezia still poses a threat, making BTTS a solid bet.

Human Analyst

Correct

Over 2.5 goals

@1.57

View Reasoning

Atalanta BC has a history of high-scoring matches, with a 45% rate of games going over 2.5 goals this season. Additionally, their recent head-to-head encounters with Venezia FC have seen a total of 12 goals in the last 5 matches, indicating a trend towards high-scoring games. With Venezia FC's O2.5 rate at 65%, this match is likely to see at least 3 goals, making the over 2.5 bet a strong choice.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Atalantaper gameVenezia

0.7

xG for

1.5

1.8

xG against

2.4

48.2

Possession %

57.2

11.8

Shots

14.2

Atalanta — last 5

LLLWW

Venezia — last 5

LLLLL

Team Stats

Atalantaper gameVenezia

0.7

xG for

1.5

1.8

xG against

2.4

48.2

Possession %

57.2

11.8

Shots

14.2

3.4

Shots on tgt

4.6

2.8

Corners

3.8

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Atalanta — last 5

LLLWW

Venezia — last 5

LLLLL

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Atalanta	15-14-9	1.3	0.9	13
Venezia	0-0-0	0	0	0

Atalanta performance

Total Matches

Form

8W5D7L

Avg Scored

1.25

per match

Avg Conceded

1.05

per match

Goals Scored25

Goals Conceded21

Clean Sheets7 (35%)

BTTS50%

Over 2.545%

Over 3.515%

Venezia FC performance

Total Matches

Form

9W4D7L

Avg Scored

2.25

per match

Avg Conceded

1.55

per match

Goals Scored45

Goals Conceded31

Clean Sheets5 (25%)

BTTS60%

Over 2.565%

Over 3.550%

Expected Match Outcome

Atalanta

1-2

(1.4 - 1.6 xG)

Venezia FC

Atalanta

Scores1.25/g

Concedes1.05/g

Venezia FC

Scores2.25/g

Concedes1.55/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

55%

Over 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 2.5

45%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Atalanta wins

Draws

Venezia wins

Recent meetings

01 Mar 2025Atalanta

0–0

Venezia

20 Oct 2024Venezia

0–2

Atalanta

23 Apr 2022Venezia

1–3

Atalanta

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lazio	10	9	1	0	+16	28
2	Inter	10	8	1	1	+13	25
3	AS Roma	10	7	3	0	+18	24
4	Como	10	7	2	1	+10	23
5	AC Milan	10	6	3	1	+9	21
6	Frosinone	10	6	2	2	+10	20
7	Juventus	10	5	2	3	+3	17
8	Napoli	10	4	2	4	+4	14
9	Bologna	10	4	2	4	+1	14
10	Torino	10	4	1	5	-2	13
11	Genoa	10	4	1	5	-4	13
12	Cagliari	10	4	1	5	-6	13
13	Atalanta	9	3	2	4	-1	11
14	Lecce	10	3	0	7	-10	9
15	Sassuolo	9	2	2	5	-8	8
16	Monza	10	2	1	7	-7	7
17	Fiorentina	9	1	2	6	-10	5
18	Parma	9	1	2	6	-10	5
19	Udinese	10	1	2	7	-12	5
20	Venezia	10	1	0	9	-14	3

Overview

Atalanta (#11, 6 pts) hosts Venezia (#20, 0 pts) in a Serie A clash. Last season, Atalanta had a solid defensive baseline conceding 0.9 goals per game with 13 clean sheets, while Venezia is newly promoted with no Serie A history to benchmark. This season's small sample shows Atalanta scoring 1 goal per game but conceding 1.4, whereas Venezia struggles scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.6 per match, indicating defensive frailties.

Form & xG

Atalanta's recent form is mixed (LLLWW) with an xG of 0.72 for and 1.82 against, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities despite their better last-season baseline. Venezia's form is poor (LLLLL) but their xG for (1.52) is higher than Atalanta's this season, suggesting some attacking promise despite conceding 2.35 xG per game. Possession favors Venezia (57.2%), but Atalanta's defensive solidity last season might limit Venezia's scoring chances.

Team News & Key Players

Atalanta relies on Gianluca Scamacca, who averages 2.1 shots and 1.26 on target per 90 with 1 goal so far, and Charles De Ketelaere, with 2.66 key passes per 90. Venezia's main attacking threats include Akor Adams (3.15 shots/90, 1.57 OT) and John Yeboah (2.14 shots/90, 1.07 OT), but the latter's team discipline issues show with 3.2 yellows per game overall, which could impact their defensive resilience.

Stats & Betting Angles

Atalanta’s clean sheet rate last season was 34%, but this season it dropped to 20%. Venezia failed to keep any clean sheets this season. Both teams have mixed BTTS records: Atalanta 60%, Venezia 40%. Over 2.5 goals occurred in 60% of Atalanta's matches but only 40% for Venezia, pointing to a likely moderate-scoring game with goals from both sides. Head-to-head favors Atalanta with recent wins including 2-0 and 3-1.

Verdict

Atalanta’s last-season defensive baseline and home advantage, combined with Venezia’s poor form and discipline issues, suggest Atalanta should edge a competitive match. Expect goals from both sides given Atalanta’s 60% BTTS and Venezia’s attacking xG, but a tight scoreline reflecting defensive struggles. Prediction leans to a 2-1 Atalanta victory, aligning with over 2.5 goals and BTTS yes.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does recent form influence this match?

Atalanta's recent form (LLLWW) shows some recovery with two wins in last three, while Venezia is struggling with five straight losses (LLLLL). This suggests Atalanta has gained momentum, particularly at home, where they can leverage their last-season defensive baseline of 0.9 conceded per game versus Venezia's porous defense conceding 2.6 goals per game this season.

What does the xG data tell us about attacking and defensive qualities?

Atalanta's xG this season is low at 0.72 for but high at 1.82 against, indicating defensive struggles despite a strong baseline last season (0.9 conceded xG). Venezia has a higher xG for at 1.52 but concedes 2.35 xG per game, reflecting attacking promise but defensive frailty. The mismatch suggests Atalanta may be vulnerable but still favored due to experience.

Who are the key attacking players and their per-90 contributions?

Atalanta's Gianluca Scamacca averages 2.1 shots and 1.26 on target per 90 with 1 goal, supported by Charles De Ketelaere's 2.66 key passes per 90. Venezia's Akor Adams leads with 3.15 shots and 1.57 on target per 90 and 1 goal, while John Yeboah adds 2.14 shots and 1.07 on target. These players will be crucial in breaking down defenses.

How vulnerable are the defenses based on recent stats?

Atalanta concedes 1.4 goals per game this season (vs 0.9 last season) with only 20% clean sheets, indicating increased defensive frailty. Venezia concedes 2.6 goals per game with no clean sheets so far. Both teams show defensive weaknesses, but Atalanta’s last season baseline suggests more resilience, especially at home.

What supports the BTTS (both teams to score) prediction?

Atalanta’s BTTS rate is 60%, and Venezia’s is 40% this season. Both teams concede over 1.4 goals per game and have attacking players with strong per-90 shot metrics (Scamacca 2.1, Adams 3.15). Combined with defensive frailties, this supports BTTS yes, expecting both sides to find the net.

Why is over/under 2.5 goals set at over?

Atalanta’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals 60% of the time this season, Venezia 40%. Given Atalanta’s 1.4 goals conceded and Venezia’s attacking xG of 1.52, plus their aggressive shot volumes (Atalanta 11.8, Venezia 14.2 shots per game), an over 2.5 goals scenario is likely.

What do recent head-to-head results suggest?

Recent H2H favors Atalanta with four wins and one draw in last five meetings, including 2-0 and 3-1 away wins for Atalanta. The latest encounter was a 0-0 draw, but overall, Atalanta’s superior quality and home advantage suggest they will edge this match.

Is there any betting value in this fixture?

Atalanta’s last-season defensive solidity combined with Venezia’s poor form and disciplinary problems (3.2 yellows per game) creates value in backing Atalanta to win 2-1, with BTTS yes and over 2.5 goals. The small sample size this season advises caution, but historical baseline strongly favors Atalanta.