Roma VS Genoa Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Oct 17, 2026)

AS RomaRoma

2 - 0

HT: 0-0

Genoa CFCGenoa

Serie A·Stadio Olimpico

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

@1.95

View Reasoning

Both teams have a 50% BTTS rate, indicating that they often score in matches. However, AS Roma's strong attacking form, evidenced by their 45 goals scored and a high chance of scoring against a struggling Genoa defense, makes it likely that both teams will find the net. Additionally, the historical context of their head-to-head matches supports this, as both teams have scored in many recent games.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Over 2.5 goals

@1.97

View Reasoning

AS Roma has a solid scoring record with 45 goals in 20 matches, contributing to a high Over 2.5 goals rate of 65%. In their last 10 encounters with Genoa, 23 goals were scored, indicating a trend of high-scoring games. Considering Roma's offensive capabilities against a Genoa defense that has conceded 34 goals, the likelihood of this match exceeding 2.5 goals is strong.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

AS Romaper gameGenoa

2.6

xG for

0.9

xG against

1.2

57.6

Possession %

20.6

Shots

11.8

AS Roma — last 5

DWDWW

Genoa — last 5

LDLLL

Team Stats

AS Romaper gameGenoa

2.6

xG for

0.9

xG against

1.2

57.6

Possession %

20.6

Shots

11.8

Shots on tgt

5.8

Corners

BTTS %

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

AS Roma — last 5

DWDWW

Genoa — last 5

LDLLL

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
AS Roma	23-4-11	1.6	0.8	18
Genoa	10-11-17	1.1	1.3	9

Roma performance

Total Matches

Form

11W6D3L

Avg Scored

2.25

per match

Avg Conceded

1.20

per match

Goals Scored45

Goals Conceded24

Clean Sheets9 (45%)

BTTS50%

Over 2.565%

Over 3.550%

Genoa performance

Total Matches

Form

6W4D10L

Avg Scored

0.95

per match

Avg Conceded

1.70

per match

Goals Scored19

Goals Conceded34

Clean Sheets4 (20%)

BTTS50%

Over 2.545%

Over 3.520%

Expected Match Outcome

Roma

2-1

(2.0 - 1.1 xG)

Genoa

Roma

Scores2.25/g

Concedes1.20/g

Genoa

Scores0.95/g

Concedes1.70/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

50%

Over 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 2.5

45%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

AS Roma wins

Draws

Genoa wins

Recent meetings

08 Mar 2026Genoa

2–1

AS Roma

29 Dec 2025AS Roma

3–1

Genoa

17 Jan 2025AS Roma

3–1

Genoa

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lazio	10	9	1	0	+16	28
2	Inter	10	8	1	1	+13	25
3	AS Roma	10	7	3	0	+18	24
4	Como	10	7	2	1	+10	23
5	AC Milan	10	6	3	1	+9	21
6	Frosinone	10	6	2	2	+10	20
7	Juventus	10	5	2	3	+3	17
8	Napoli	10	4	2	4	+4	14
9	Bologna	10	4	2	4	+1	14
10	Torino	10	4	1	5	-2	13
11	Genoa	10	4	1	5	-4	13
12	Cagliari	10	4	1	5	-6	13
13	Atalanta	10	3	2	5	-4	11
14	Lecce	10	3	0	7	-10	9
15	Parma	10	2	2	6	-7	8
16	Fiorentina	10	2	2	6	-8	8
17	Sassuolo	10	2	2	6	-10	8
18	Monza	10	2	1	7	-7	7
19	Udinese	10	1	2	7	-12	5
20	Venezia	10	1	0	9	-14	3

Overview

AS Roma currently leads Serie A with 13 points from 5 matches, showcasing a strong start compared to Genoa’s 19th place with just 1 point. Roma’s last full season baseline of 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game underpins their solidity, while Genoa struggled last season with 1.1 scored and 1.3 conceded. The fixture pits a top contender against a side fighting relegation, suggesting a clear advantage for Roma.

Form & xG

Roma’s recent form (DWDWW) and underlying xG of 2.6 for and 0.98 against this season aligns with their 2.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game. Genoa’s form is poor (LDLLL) with a low 0.93 xG for and 1.19 against, correlating with their 0.6 scored and 2 conceded per game. Roma’s possession advantage (57.6% vs 48%) and higher shots (20.6 vs 11.8) reflect their dominance.

Team News & Key Players

Roma’s attacking threat centers on Donyell Malen, who has scored 6 goals in 4 apps with 4.42 shots and 2.84 on target per 90, supported by Paulo Dybala’s 3 assists and 4.5 key passes per 90. Defensively, Roma’s last season 18 clean sheets and current 60% clean sheet rate highlight solidity. Genoa’s key player J. Vásquez has 1 goal but overall the team lacks offensive firepower and defensive stability.

Stats & Betting Angles

Roma’s 80% over 2.5 matches and 40% BTTS rate contrast with Genoa’s 40% over 2.5 and 60% BTTS. Last season, Roma kept 18 clean sheets to Genoa’s 9, indicating defensive superiority. The recent head-to-head favors Roma with multiple 3-1 wins, but Genoa did win 2-1 in March 2026. Roma’s higher corners (5.8 vs 5) and lower fouls (13 vs 9.6) suggest more control and discipline.

Verdict

Considering Roma’s superior form, xG, and home advantage, they are expected to win comfortably. Genoa’s defensive vulnerabilities and poor form make scoring difficult, but their 60% BTTS rate suggests they may find the net once. The prediction leans towards a 2-1 Roma victory, consistent with over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does recent form impact the expected outcome?

Roma's recent form is strong with DWDWW over 5 games and 13 points placing them 1st, while Genoa has LDLLL with only 1 point, indicating Roma's confidence and momentum. Roma's average 2.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game this season contrasts sharply with Genoa's 0.6 scored and 2 conceded, reinforcing Roma's dominance and likelihood to win.

What do xG statistics reveal about the teams' performances?

Roma’s xG of 2.6 for and 0.98 against this season matches their 2.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, confirming efficient finishing and defense. Genoa’s xG of 0.93 for and 1.19 against aligns with their low scoring (0.6) and higher goals conceded (2). This indicates Roma creates better quality chances and defends more effectively.

Who are the key attackers and their per-90 contributions?

Roma’s Donyell Malen leads with 6 goals in 4 apps, averaging 4.42 shots and 2.84 on target per 90, highlighting his clinical finishing. Paulo Dybala adds creativity with 3 assists and 4.5 key passes per 90. Genoa’s top contributor J. Vásquez has 1 goal but only 0.79 shots per 90, indicating limited offensive threat.

What defensive frailties might Genoa face?

Genoa concedes 2 goals per game this season, higher than last season’s 1.3, indicating worsening defense. Their xG against is 1.19 per game, and they have 0 clean sheets this season versus 9 last season. Roma’s attack, with 20.6 shots and 7 OT per game, will test Genoa’s backline significantly.

Why is BTTS (both teams to score) likely in this match?

Genoa’s 60% BTTS rate this season and their recent 2-1 win against Roma suggest they can breach Roma’s defense. Roma, despite 60% clean sheets, have a 40% BTTS rate this season. Genoa’s defensive frailty combined with their ability to score in 3 of 5 games supports BTTS Yes.

Is over or under 2.5 goals expected and why?

Roma’s 80% over 2.5 rate this season, combined with their 2.8 goals scored per game and Genoa’s defensive struggles (2 conceded per game), point to over 2.5 goals. Genoa’s 40% over 2.5 rate is less influential given Roma’s attack and recent 3-1 and 2-1 scorelines in head-to-head.

What does the head-to-head history suggest about this fixture?

Recent head-to-head results show Roma’s dominance with multiple 3-1 wins (2025-12-29, 2025-01-17) and a 1-0 win in May 2024. Genoa’s notable win was 2-1 in March 2026. The trend mostly favors Roma scoring multiple goals but Genoa occasionally scoring, supporting a 2-1 score prediction.

Where is the betting value in this match?

Given Roma’s strong form, xG, and home advantage, the favorite status is justified but BTTS Yes and over 2.5 goals offer good value due to Genoa’s ability to score despite defensive issues. Betting on a 2-1 correct score reflects realistic expectations based on recent results and statistical profiles.