Auxerre VS Brest Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 20, 2026)

AJ AuxerreAuxerre

2 - 1

HT: 0-1

Stade Brestois 29Brest

Ligue 1·Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

Both Teams to Score

@1.62

View Reasoning

Both teams have demonstrated a strong likelihood of scoring, with AJ Auxerre recording a BTTS rate of 65% and Stade Brestois 29 at 60%. The H2H record shows that in their last 10 encounters, both teams have often found the net, leading to the conclusion that both will likely score again. Therefore, betting on both teams to score is a reasonable choice.

Human Analyst

Correct

Over 2.5 goals

@1.81

View Reasoning

AJ Auxerre has shown a tendency for high-scoring games, with 55% of their matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Additionally, their goal-scoring record of 31 goals in 20 matches, coupled with Stade Brestois 29's defensive struggles (39 goals conceded), supports the prediction of over 2.5 goals. Given these statistics, a bet on over 2.5 goals is a solid option.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Auxerreper gameStade Brestois 29

1.8

xG for

2.7

1.6

xG against

1.3

Possession %

48.3

12.7

Shots

Auxerre — last 5

LLL

Stade Brestois 29 — last 5

WDD

Team Stats

Auxerreper gameStade Brestois 29

1.8

xG for

2.7

1.6

xG against

1.3

Possession %

48.3

12.7

Shots

4.7

Shots on tgt

7.7

6.3

Corners

7.3

100

BTTS %

100

Over 2.5 %

100

Clean sheet %

Auxerre — last 5

LLL

Stade Brestois 29 — last 5

WDD

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Auxerre	8-10-16	1	1.3	9
Stade Brestois 29	10-9-15	1.3	1.6	9

Auxerre performance

Total Matches

Form

7W7D6L

Avg Scored

1.55

per match

Avg Conceded

1.40

per match

Goals Scored31

Goals Conceded28

Clean Sheets6 (30%)

BTTS65%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.540%

Brest performance

Total Matches

Form

3W8D9L

Avg Scored

1.30

per match

Avg Conceded

1.95

per match

Goals Scored26

Goals Conceded39

Clean Sheets1 (5%)

BTTS60%

Over 2.560%

Over 3.540%

Expected Match Outcome

Auxerre

2-1

(1.8 - 1.4 xG)

Brest

Auxerre

Scores1.55/g

Concedes1.40/g

Brest

Scores1.30/g

Concedes1.95/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

63%

Over 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

40%

Under 2.5

43%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Auxerre wins

Draws

Stade Brestois 29 wins

Recent meetings

21 Mar 2026Auxerre

3–0

Stade Brestois 29

04 Jan 2026Stade Brestois 29

2–0

Auxerre

14 Feb 2025Stade Brestois 29

2–2

Auxerre

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lyon	7	4	2	1	+8	14
2	Paris Saint Germain	7	4	2	1	+5	14
3	Paris FC	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	Lille	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Monaco	7	4	2	1	+4	14
6	Rennes	7	4	1	2	+1	13
7	Lorient	7	3	2	2	+1	11
8	Lens	7	3	1	3	+3	10
9	Marseille	7	3	0	4	+4	9
10	Stade Brestois 29	7	2	3	2	+3	9
11	Toulouse	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Auxerre	7	3	0	4	-6	9
13	Nice	7	2	2	3	-3	8
14	Strasbourg	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Angers	7	2	1	4	-6	7
16	Le Mans	7	1	3	3	-5	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	1	1	5	-11	4
18	Le Havre	7	0	2	5	-6	2

Overview

Auxerre currently sit 18th with 0 points after three games, struggling to find form, while Stade Brestois 29 are 7th with 5 points. Last season, Auxerre averaged 1.0 goal and conceded 1.3 per game, whereas Brestois scored 1.3 and conceded 1.6. This matchup has seen mixed results recently, including two 3-0 wins for Auxerre and a 2-0 win for Brestois, indicating a competitive rivalry.

Form & xG

Auxerre have lost all three games this season, scoring 1.33 and conceding 3.67 goals per game, with an xG of 1.81 for and 1.55 against, suggesting defensive issues. Brestois have a WDD form, scoring 2 goals and conceding 1.67 per game, but with a higher xG of 2.71 for and a tighter defense at 1.28 xGA. Both teams have BTTS and Over 2.5 goals in 100% of matches this season, though sample sizes are small.

Team news & key players

Auxerre’s top attacking threat is D. Namaso with 1.89 shots and 1.13 on target per 90, while Kévin Danois provides 1.33 key passes per 90. Brestois rely heavily on K. Doumbia, who has scored 4 goals and 1 assist in 239 minutes, with 2.26 shots and 1.51 on target per 90, and Ludovic Ajorque with 4 shots per 90. Defensively, Brestois’ Joris Chotard averages 1.67 tackles per 90 and 3.33 key passes, highlighting his dual role.

Stats & betting angles

Auxerre's defense is porous, conceding 3.67 goals per game this season, with only 9 clean sheets last season out of 34 matches. Brestois' attacking efficiency is notable with 2.71 xG per game this season and 4 goals from Doumbia. Head-to-head recent results favor high-scoring matches, including two 3-0 Auxerre wins and a 2-2 draw. Both teams have 100% BTTS and Over 2.5 this season, suggesting value in Over 2.5 and BTTS markets.

Verdict

Given Auxerre’s defensive frailty and Brestois’ attacking potency, a high-scoring game with both teams scoring is likely. Brestois’ superior xG and form edge them as slight favorites, but Auxerre’s home advantage and past 3-0 wins indicate they can score. Expect a 2-1 scoreline, BTTS Yes, and Over 2.5 goals, consistent with recent season trends and small-sample season stats.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does recent form influence the expected outcome?

Auxerre's recent form is poor with three straight losses and conceding 3.67 goals per game, while Stade Brestois has WDD form, scoring 2 goals and conceding 1.67. This contrast suggests Brestois are more stable defensively and offensively, increasing the likelihood they will at least score once and possibly secure a win.

What does the xG profile say about the teams' attacking and defensive quality?

Auxerre's xG is 1.81 for and 1.55 against, indicating they create chances but concede more than expected (3.67 goals conceded). Brestois have a higher xG for at 2.71 and a better xG against at 1.28, showing more clinical finishing and stronger defense, favoring their attacking edge.

Who are the key attacking players and their per-90 contributions?

For Auxerre, D. Namaso leads with 1.89 shots and 1.13 on target per 90, while Kévin Danois provides 1.33 key passes. Brestois' K. Doumbia is prolific with 4 goals, 1 assist, 2.26 shots and 1.51 on target per 90, alongside Ludovic Ajorque with 4 shots per 90, highlighting their offensive threat.

How vulnerable is Auxerre defensively?

Auxerre concede 3.67 goals per game this season, significantly above their 1.3 goals against average last season. They have only 9 clean sheets in 34 matches last season and currently 0 clean sheets in three games, indicating a defensive frailty that Brestois could exploit.

Why is BTTS (both teams to score) a strong possibility here?

Both teams have BTTS in 100% of their matches this season, with Auxerre conceding 3.67 goals per game and Brestois scoring 2 per game. Recent head-to-head matches also show frequent goals from both sides, including a 2-2 draw and multiple matches with three or more goals.

What supports betting on Over 2.5 goals?

This season both teams have Over 2.5 in 100% of their matches. Auxerre concedes 3.67 goals per game and Brestois has an xG of 2.71, indicating offensive potency. Historical results include multiple 3-0 and 2-2 games, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring contest.

How do recent head-to-head results inform this prediction?

Recent meetings include two 3-0 Auxerre wins and a 2-2 draw, showing Auxerre's ability to score multiple goals at home and Brestois' resilience. The 2-0 Brestois win earlier this year also shows their capacity to keep a clean sheet. This suggests a competitive, goal-filled match.

Is there betting value in this match?

Given Auxerre's defensive issues (3.67 goals conceded) and Brestois’ strong attacking xG (2.71), Over 2.5 and BTTS markets are attractive, especially as both hit 100% this season. Brestois' form and key players like Doumbia offer value backing them to score and possibly win narrowly, with a predicted 2-1 final score.