Auxerre VS Nice Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (Sep 12, 2026)

AJ AuxerreAuxerre

1 - 0

HT: 0-0

OGC NiceNice

Ligue 1·Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Correct

AJ Auxerre to win

View Reasoning

AJ Auxerre has a slight edge in form with 5 wins compared to OGC Nice's 2 victories, and they have managed to score 24 goals while conceding 28. Additionally, their home advantage could play a crucial role, as they have been more effective at home compared to Nice's struggles on the road. Therefore, backing AJ Auxerre to win seems like a sound bet.

Human Analyst

Incorrect

Both Teams to Score

View Reasoning

Both AJ Auxerre and OGC Nice have shown a tendency to concede goals this season, with both teams scoring in 50% and 45% of their respective matches. Additionally, their head-to-head record shows a competitive nature with 39 total goals in 15 matches, indicating that both teams are capable of finding the net. Taking into account these factors, the bet for both teams to score seems promising.

Split call — see both takes above

Key Stats

Auxerreper gameNice

1.8

xG for

1.1

1.6

xG against

1.3

Possession %

57.5

12.7

Shots

14.5

Auxerre — last 5

LLL

Nice — last 5

Team Stats

Auxerreper gameNice

1.8

xG for

1.1

1.6

xG against

1.3

Possession %

57.5

12.7

Shots

14.5

4.7

Shots on tgt

2.5

6.3

Corners

6.5

100

BTTS %

100

Over 2.5 %

Clean sheet %

Auxerre — last 5

LLL

Nice — last 5

Last season

Team	W-D-L	GF/g	GA/g	CS
Auxerre	8-10-16	1	1.3	9
Nice	8-12-16	1.1	1.7	7

Auxerre performance

Total Matches

Form

5W7D8L

Avg Scored

1.20

per match

Avg Conceded

1.40

per match

Goals Scored24

Goals Conceded28

Clean Sheets6 (30%)

BTTS50%

Over 2.555%

Over 3.540%

Nice performance

Total Matches

Form

2W10D8L

Avg Scored

0.85

per match

Avg Conceded

1.50

per match

Goals Scored17

Goals Conceded30

Clean Sheets5 (25%)

BTTS45%

Over 2.540%

Over 3.530%

Expected Match Outcome

Auxerre

1-1

(1.4 - 1.1 xG)

Nice

Auxerre

Scores1.20/g

Concedes1.40/g

Nice

Scores0.85/g

Concedes1.50/g

Market Predictions

BTTS

48%

Over 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 2.5

53%

Predicto Power Ranking

This is a real-time strength score based on form, stats, and momentum — not just opinion.

Head-to-Head & Form

Auxerre wins

Draws

Nice wins

Recent meetings

10 May 2026Auxerre

2–1

Nice

23 Aug 2025Nice

3–1

Auxerre

14 Mar 2025Nice

1–1

Auxerre

Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lyon	7	4	2	1	+8	14
2	Paris Saint Germain	7	4	2	1	+5	14
3	Paris FC	7	4	2	1	+5	14
4	Lille	7	4	2	1	+5	14
5	Monaco	7	4	2	1	+4	14
6	Rennes	7	4	1	2	+1	13
7	Lorient	7	3	2	2	+1	11
8	Lens	7	3	1	3	+3	10
9	Marseille	7	3	0	4	+4	9
10	Stade Brestois 29	7	2	3	2	+3	9
11	Toulouse	7	2	3	2	+1	9
12	Auxerre	7	3	0	4	-6	9
13	Nice	7	2	2	3	-3	8
14	Strasbourg	7	2	1	4	-3	7
15	Angers	7	2	1	4	-6	7
16	Le Mans	7	1	3	3	-5	6
17	Estac Troyes	7	1	1	5	-11	4
18	Le Havre	7	0	2	5	-6	2

Overview

Auxerre hosts Nice in a Ligue 1 clash where both teams seek improvement. Auxerre sits 18th with 0 points from 3 games, conceding 3.67 goals per game, while Nice is 15th with 2 points from 2 games and conceding 1.5 goals per game. Auxerre's defensive frailty contrasts with Nice's slightly better defensive record but poor scoring (0 goals this season). Last season, Auxerre averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded, Nice 1.1 scored and 1.7 conceded, setting a baseline for expectations.

Form & xG

Auxerre’s xG this season is 1.81 for and 1.55 against per game, suggesting they create decent chances but leak goals heavily (3.67 conceded actual). Nice shows a lower xG for (1.05) and a slightly higher xG against (1.28), indicating less offensive threat but a tighter defense. Both teams have small samples this season, so last season's 1.0-1.3 (Auxerre) and 1.1-1.7 (Nice) goals for/against per game remain relevant.

Team News & Key Players

Auxerre’s D. Namaso is most active attacking player with 1.89 shots/90 and 1.13 on target, plus 1 goal this season. Kévin Danois also contributes 1.67 shots/90 and 1.33 key passes/90. For Nice, Jonathan Clauss leads with 2.54 shots/90 and 0.73 OT, and Sofiane Diop offers 0.76 shots and 3.05 key passes/90, plus 1 assist. Defensive discipline issues: Auxerre average 2 yellows per game, Nice 1 yellow per game.

Stats & Betting Angles

Auxerre concedes heavily (3.67 goals per game) and BTTS is 100% this season, while Nice has kept 50% clean sheets and BTTS 0%. Last season Auxerre had 9 clean sheets, Nice 7. Over 2.5 goals occurred 100% for Auxerre’s matches and 50% for Nice’s. Head-to-head shows tight matches with recent Auxerre wins 2-1 and 2-1, and mixed results overall. Auxerre’s higher xG and poor defense suggest BTTS and Over 2.5 goals likely.

Verdict

Expect an open game with Auxerre pushing forward and defensive vulnerabilities exploited by Nice. Auxerre’s higher xG and shots per game contrast with Nice’s solid possession (57.5%) but low scoring. Recent H2H favors Auxerre narrowly, with two 2-1 wins this year. Prediction leans Auxerre to edge a 2-1 win, BTTS Yes, and Over 2.5 goals given Auxerre’s defensive struggles and attacking output.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

Frequently Asked Questions

How has recent form influenced both teams’ potential performance in this match?

Auxerre’s form is poor with 3 losses from 3 matches and conceding 3.67 goals per game, indicating defensive issues. Nice has 1 draw and 1 loss, conceding 1.5 goals per game and scoring none. This suggests Auxerre may continue to leak goals while Nice struggles to score, pointing to a likely open game with Auxerre as the more attacking side.

What do the xG statistics reveal about the attacking and defensive strengths of Auxerre and Nice?

Auxerre’s xG is 1.81 for and 1.55 against, suggesting they create decent chances but concede more than expected (3.67 actual). Nice’s xG is 1.05 for and 1.28 against, showing fewer chances created and a slightly better defense. These numbers indicate Auxerre is more attack-focused but vulnerable defensively, while Nice is more conservative offensively.

Who are the key attackers likely to influence the match, and what are their per-90 stats?

Auxerre’s D. Namaso leads with 1.89 shots and 1.13 on target per 90 minutes plus 1 goal. Kévin Danois contributes 1.67 shots and 1.33 key passes per 90. For Nice, Jonathan Clauss has 2.54 shots and 0.73 on target per 90, while Sofiane Diop offers 0.76 shots and 3.05 key passes per 90 with 1 assist, highlighting their creative role.

How do defensive frailties impact the expected outcome of this match?

Auxerre concedes 3.67 goals per game this season, well above their xG against (1.55), confirming defensive struggles. Nice concedes fewer goals (1.5 per game) and has a 50% clean sheet rate. Auxerre’s defensive weaknesses likely allow Nice chances despite their scoring issues, increasing chances for goals on both sides.

What is the rationale for expecting both teams to score (BTTS) in this game?

Auxerre’s matches have BTTS 100% this season with 3.67 goals conceded per game, while Nice’s BTTS is 0% currently but last season they failed to score only 12 times in 36 matches. Recent head-to-head includes multiple 2-1 and 1-1 results, supporting a BTTS Yes prediction given Auxerre’s leaky defense and Nice’s ability to score occasionally.

Why is Over 2.5 goals a likely outcome based on statistical trends?

Auxerre’s matches have seen Over 2.5 goals 100% this season, and Nice 50%. Last season, Auxerre averaged 1.3 goals conceded per game and Nice 1.7. The recent H2H includes multiple 2-1 scorelines. Auxerre’s high conceded goals (3.67) and decent attacking xG (1.81) suggest a match with at least three goals.

How do recent head-to-head results inform the expected match outcome?

Recent H2H matches include Auxerre wins 2-1 in May and August 2026, and a 1-1 draw in March 2025, showing competitive games with narrow margins. Auxerre has edged Nice twice 2-1 this year, suggesting they can break down Nice’s defense while conceding. This supports a prediction of a 2-1 Auxerre win.

Is there any betting value in the predicted outcome and goals market?

Given Auxerre’s defensive struggles and attacking output with 1.81 xG, and Nice’s possession advantage but lack of goals, the 2-1 Auxerre win with BTTS and Over 2.5 goals offers value. Auxerre is 18th with 0 points but has scored in 100% of matches, while Nice’s scoring drought and BTTS 0% suggest an upset possible but Auxerre’s recent H2H edge justifies the bet.