Auxerre VS Nice Prediction & Betting Tips - AI Analysis & Odds (May 10, 2026)

AJ AuxerreAuxerre

19:00

Sun, May 10 2026

OGC NiceNice

Ligue 1·Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps

Comparison of analyst and AI predictions

Predicto AI

Both Teams to Score

@1.85

View Reasoning

Both teams have shown a propensity to concede goals, with AJ Auxerre allowing 24 goals and OGC Nice a staggering 34 goals this season. The Both Teams to Score (BTTS) statistic is also favorable, with both teams having a BTTS rate of around 45% and 50%, respectively. Given their H2H history with a total of 37 goals in 15 matches, this match is likely to see both teams on the scoresheet.

Human Analyst

AJ Auxerre to win

@2.20

View Reasoning

AJ Auxerre has shown decent home form with a record of 4 wins in 20 matches and has been defensively solid with a goal-conceding rate of just 24 goals against. Their Head-to-Head (H2H) record against OGC Nice, winning 5 out of 15 encounters, suggests they have a competitive edge. Furthermore, Nice's struggles on the road, with a win rate of only 3 out of 20 matches, bolster the case for Auxerre to secure a victory.

Split call — see both takes above

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Season Form Overview

AJ Auxerre arrives at this fixture with a slightly stronger record, boasting 4 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses so far in Ligue 1. Their 23 goals scored and 24 conceded point to a relatively balanced side, though their 30% clean sheet rate suggests defensive lapses remain a concern. OGC Nice, contrastingly, have 3 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, with a somewhat leaky defense conceding 34 goals. The away side’s 15% clean sheet record underlines their defensive struggles, making them vulnerable on the road.

Goalscoring and Defensive Dynamics

Auxerre’s goal-scoring frequency leans towards efficiency rather than volume, reflected in their 45% BTTS rate and sub-50% Over 2.5 goals percentage. Nice’s statistics reveal a similar story, with a 50% BTTS and 40% Over 2.5 rate, showing a tendency for matches involving them to feature goals but not necessarily high-scoring affairs. Both teams have defensive inconsistencies, especially Nice, whose 34 goals conceded highlight susceptibility that Auxerre might exploit at home.

Historical Head-to-Head Insights

The historical data from 15 encounters tilts slightly in Auxerre’s favor with 5 wins against Nice’s 7, plus 3 draws. The average goals per match stand at 2.5, indicating a moderately open battle in the past. Auxerre’s home advantage at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps could be crucial, as their better head-to-head record suggests they manage to impose themselves more effectively when hosting Nice.

Tactical Considerations

Auxerre tends to adopt a more balanced tactical setup, aiming to capitalize on home support to press and control midfield. Nice, meanwhile, have struggled to find defensive solidity, which could force them to adopt a more cautious approach. However, their offensive output remains modest, meaning they might look to capitalize on set pieces or counterattacks rather than sustained pressure.

Prediction Summary

Given Auxerre’s marginally better form, home advantage, and historical edge, the expert prediction leans towards an Auxerre win. The AI model’s recommendation for Both Teams to Score aligns with the defensive vulnerabilities and BTTS stats of 45% for Auxerre and 50% for Nice. This match is likely to be tight but with goals at both ends, making a home victory combined with BTTS a compelling betting angle backed by current data.

Martin Anderson

Human analyst

Professional betting analyst with 10+ years of experience in sports data analytics and statistics. Featured on The Athletic, 433, and ESPN. Currently maintaining a 70% win rate this season across European football markets. See the public track record.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What's your prediction for this match?

The prediction for AJ Auxerre vs OGC Nice favors a home win for AJ Auxerre, supported by their slightly better form and a positive head-to-head record of 5 wins out of 15 matches. Auxerre's balanced attack with 23 goals and a relatively tighter defense conceding 24 goals compared to Nice's 34 goals conceded indicates a potential advantage. Given the average 2.5 goals per game in their encounters and both teams' moderate BTTS rates, a 2-1 scoreline in favor of AJ Auxerre is likely.

Which team has better recent form?

AJ Auxerre currently holds a record of 4 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses with 23 goals scored and 24 conceded, showing a fairly balanced but slightly more resilient form compared to OGC Nice. Nice has 3 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, with fewer goals scored (20) and a significantly higher number of goals conceded (34), indicating defensive vulnerability. Auxerre’s clean sheet rate at 30% outperforms Nice’s 15%, reflecting stronger defensive performances this season.

What are the best betting opportunities?

For the AJ Auxerre vs OGC Nice match, the best betting markets include Both Teams To Score (BTTS) and Over/Under 2.5 goals. Auxerre's BTTS stands at 45%, while Nice's is 50%, making BTTS a strong possibility. Additionally, Over 2.5 goals have occurred in 45% of Auxerre’s games and 40% of Nice’s matches, indicating a moderately high chance of multiple goals. Clean sheets are less frequent, especially for Nice at 15%, so betting on clean sheets may carry more risk.

How do these teams match up historically?

The head-to-head record between AJ Auxerre and OGC Nice over 15 matches shows Auxerre with 5 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses. Together, they have scored 37 goals in these encounters, averaging 2.5 goals per game. This competitive balance with a slight edge to Nice in wins illustrates a closely fought rivalry with a decent goal average, suggesting entertaining matches historically.

What are the key tactical matchups?

Tactically, AJ Auxerre tends to balance attack and defense, scoring 23 goals and conceding 24, reflecting a moderate defensive solidity with a 30% clean sheet rate. OGC Nice shows a more porous defense conceding 34 goals, despite scoring 20, indicating they may rely more on offensive efforts but struggle defensively. This matchup suggests Auxerre’s more stable defense might counter Nice’s attacking approach, while both teams have a decent chance to score, aligning with the BTTS prediction.

Should I bet on the favorite or underdog?

Considering the expert and AI predictions alongside the statistics, betting value lies with AJ Auxerre as the favorite, given their superior defensive record and home advantage. Despite OGC Nice’s higher BTTS percentage, their defensive frailty suggests they are less likely to secure a positive result. Therefore, backing AJ Auxerre to win offers value, while also considering BTTS markets to capture the likelihood of goals from both sides.